Great Job on the Idaho forecast Don.
This morning the Montana Bureau of Mines listed the following earthquake:

O: 25NOV2001 08:56:10 44.4N 114.7W ML=2.6 MBMG NE of Stanley, ID

On November 20 Don had forecast (Post # 11170) the following event:

F: 25-29NOV 40 km 44.6N 114.5W ML=2.0-3.0 Challis, ID

This event lies 27 km from the forecast epicenter, in the middle of
the given magnitude range and within the 5-day time window. A totally
successful forecast.

Probability:

There have been 10 5-day time windows since from Nov. 20, 2000 to
Nov 20, 2001 during which an event matching Don's prediction occurred.
During the same period there have been 73 such 5-day windows, so the
probability of a random success is 10/73 = 0.13 or odds of about
1 in 7. Only two earthquakes of Ml>=2.6 have occurred in the past
year in this region, however - a Ml 2.7 on Sept. 2, 2001 and a Ml 2.9
on August 21, 2001.

Too bad you couldn't get Petra to take you up on your wager, Don.
You would be enjoying a nice crispy fried chicken dinner tonight - maybe
Petra will still oblige you, though - if you ask nicely. Looks like
the fix really was in.

Don's original forecast had read (Post #11170, Nov. 20, 2001)

Challis, Idaho Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 20, 2001 at 00:42:00:

Magnitude: 2.0-3.0Md
From: 11/25/2001UTC - To: 11/29/2001UTC
Location: Challis, Idaho
Lat: 44.6N - Long: 114.5W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. I just don't see anyway I can miss with this forecast. There's a
little lady I know with the same name that makes people shake when she gets
her dander up.

Looking for a 2.0 to 3.0 quake at 44.6N/114.5W. This is about 30Km NW of
Challis, Idaho and should be in the Challis National Forest. Should occur on
11/27/2001. The window opens on 11/25/2001 and will close on 11/29/2001. The
radius on this is 40Km.

Okay Petra. I made this forecast far enough in advance so you can have
some time to pick your location.

One of my famous steak dinners if you win, crispy fried chicken with smashed
taters with your gravy if I win. I feel I must warn though. You haven't got a
chance. I have this one in the bag. The fix is in.
Take Care...Gloating and loving it
Cowboy

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