Lowell-I use the official NOAA site for Hurricances: www.nhc.noaa.gov. Just now, 7:45 AM eastern, the have olga at only 60 knots which makes it a strong tropical storm. They have it decreasing to a weak tropical storm by 72 hours. They had a similar forecast in place last night, although part of the weakening was based on climatology, not computer models. The NHC did not do very well (actually, poorly) on predicting the strength of tropical storms this year: one after another early in the season they predicted (forecast?) stroms to become hurricanes, and one after another they fell apart. So, we will see. But the satellite IR loop shows Olga to be very unimpressive.

But, the main thing is I don't understand how the direction of approach can affect the motion of a plate. I understand that you are trying to make this accessible to non-geologists. I understand how decreased atmospheric pressure, or even the pounding of waves against a coast, might have some affect on seismicity (not the same as whether I believe this or not: I don't have an opinion yet). I don't see how a plate gets pushed any significant amount. Have you calculated the forces of some load of water (some volume of water?). Also, pushing the Carribean plate away from the NAM plate would not make a thrust earthquake more likely on an E-W subduction zone like the Puerto Rico trench(although it might make a strike-slip earthquake more likely on a high-angle fault.-Chris