SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ARRIVES AT 05:45 - 06:02 UT NOV 24

SUMMARY

A severe (Kp>=9) geomagnetic storm arrived this morning at
about 05:45 UT. This was a sudden commencement storm (SSC) and severely
degraded to readability of most of the on-line seismograms. A number
of light to moderate earthquakes were associated with the sudden
commencement of this storm including a Ml 3.5 which was probably felt
in Upper Hutt and Wellington, New Zealand. A Ml 4.8 also occurred in the
region north of Taiwan at about 300 km depth. This is the largest earthquake
within 100 km of this epicenter since Dec 14, 1990 and one of only
3 events of Mb>=4.5 in the area since 1990. In addition a Ml 4.2
was located as the storm began in the Guerrero, Mexico region.
The Taiwan and the Guerrero, Mexico epicenters lie within
the sub-solar and anti-solar regions respectively at the time of
the storm. These areas are expected to see triggering effects from
such geomagnetic storms.

Earthquakes associated with the Sudden Commencement of the current
geomagnetic storm included.

O: 24Nov2001 06:30 41.1S 175.1E ML=3.5 IGNS SE of Upper Hutt, N.Z.
O: 24NOV2001 05:46:30 26.0N 122.1E M =4.8 GSSC TAIWAN REGION
O: 24NOV2001 05:51:49 16.9N 100.2W ML=4.2 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO

GLOBAL

A series of earthquakes continued in the Mexico-Guatemala over the
past day. The largest of these were a Ml 4.5 and 4.6 off the south
coast of Guatemala, however Mexico also saw considerable activity
in the state of Guerrero (Ml 4.2, 3.7, 4.0, 3.7, 3.5).
Three events occurred in the Taiwan/Ryukyu Islands region - a local
earthquake in Taiwan (Ml 4.1); the unusual event discussed in the summary which
appears to have been triggered by the geomagnetic storm (Mb 4.8)
and an Mj 5.2 in the southern Ryukyu Islands of Japan several hours
earlier. The area southeast of Honshu where considerable seismicity
occurred in the summer of 2000 also experienced a Mb 5.3 this afternoon.
In Central Asia, a regional aftershock of yesterday's Pakistan Ms 6.2
earthquake occurred in Afghanistan (Mb 4.3) and a Gujarat (India) aftershock
of Ml 4.2 was recorded by ASC.

U.S./CANADA

The only event in the California/Nevada area which was recorded in
association with the geomagnetic storm this morning was a small earthquake
in the Coso Junction region (Ml 0.8) which occurred at 06:09 UT. After
a Ml 3.0 WNW of Lone Pine, CA, regional seismicity shut down with no
events of Ml>=2 recorded since 01:28 PST this morning. A similar shut-down
in seismicity in southern California was observed following the last
major geomagnetic storm on Nov. 6-7. The cause of this is not know,
but may involve a temporary readjustment before larger quakes begin
in two to three days. A small Ml 1.5 earthquake was also observed
near Parkfield this morning.

In the Pacific Northwest, two small events were observed following
the SSC - a Ml 1.3 near Carnation, WA and a Ml 1.1 near Poulsbo, WA.
No earthquakes were reported from the Rocky mountain areas.

Two small earthquake occurred yesterday in the region on the border
of Minnesota and Ontario. These events (Ml 1.6, 1.4), near Atikokan, ONT
occurred in a relatively active site near the Minnesota/Ontario
border. There have been 6 earthquake located within 200 km of this
epicenter during 2001. Seventy-three events have been located in this
area since 1950, the largest of which was a Ml 3.9 on Feb. 11, 1984..

Two small events of Ml>3 were located this morning in the region
of Southern Alaska (Ml 3.1, Ml 3.0). There were no events of Ml>=3
located in Hawaii today.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS reported a Ml 3.5 near Upper Hutt shortly after the sudden
commencement storm began. The storm and the earthquake were both
well recorded on regional seismograms (the earthquake on Cannon Point;
the geomagnetic storm at SNZO, South Karori. For other seismograms
see:
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.htm

Other than this Ml 3.5, the on-line seismogram showed only a few
minor earthquakes over the past 24 hours. New Zealand is included
in the seismic watch from the current SSC.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

A severe (Kp>=9) geomagnetic storm arrived this morning at
about 05:45 UT. This was a suden commencement storm and severely
degraded to readability of most of the on-line seismograms.
Areas which are sub-solar include regions within 20 degrees longitude
of 90E; anti-solar areas are within 20 degrees longitude of
90W, however the strength of the storm suggests that 30-35 degrees
should be taken about the anti- and sub-solar longitudes to be
included in the seismic watch.
The seismic watch will include regions between 125W and 55W and
between 125E and 55E and will extend for the next 5 days. The
largest events are most likely to occur 4-6 days following the
storm, i.e. on November 30 to December 2, 2001 and are most likely
to occur in one of these longitude bands and/or at high latitudes.
These areas include (sub-solar) the aftershock zone of the
Qinghai, China earthquake and the Pakistan/Afghanistan event today;
Sumatera; northern India and most of the Himalyas, the Philippines;
the Moluccas, Taiwan and portions of the Ryukyu Islands. Anti-solar
zones include most of the U.S. and Canada as well as the Caribbean
and the western coast of South America.
Any of these regions could see strong seismicity in the next
5-6 days. Regions most vulnerable towards the end of the period
include regions of high heat flow, such as Yellowstone and
So. California near Calexico and Mammoth Lakes CA or mid-ocean
ridges (in this case the south Indian ridge and the East Pacific Rise).
The Central California region along the San Andreas/Calaveras/
Hayward fault system is especially senstitive to such storms as
is the region of Alaska/Aleutians.

There were no solar flares of M- or X- class observed today.

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011124events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

ATLANTIC

Tropical storm Two formed in the Central Atlantic over the past 24 hours.
It is currently tracking to the northwest, but is not expected to make
landfall. Little seismicity is expected to be associated with this
storm. For tracking information see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200117.html

For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/at200117.public.html

SO. INDIAN OCEAN

Tropical Cyclone 04s has dissipated and is no longer active.

SO. CHINA SEA

Tropical depression 29W has dissipated and is no longer active.

WESTERN PACIFIC

Tropical depression 28W is currently located Southeast of Okinawa.
at about 21N 132E.
These storms often move northward, picking up
intensity and sideswipe the Japanese Islands. Current forecast
shows the storm in the Bonin Islands on Monday. Some seismic activity
along the Bonin/Volcano Islands area may occur in conjunction with
28W.
A Mj 5.3 earthquake was recorded southeast of Honshu this afternoon,
and may have been affected by TD 28W.

For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 25 is the eleventh day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

So. Alaska MB>=3.0 9 2.7 0.02
Australia MB>=4.0 33 2.6 0.03
New Madrid MB>=0.0 34 3.4 0.01
So Indonesia MB>=4.0 42 3.1 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Geysers MB>=0.0 -6 -2.2 0.05
NE Europe MB>=4.0 -10 -2.3 0.04
Tonga MB>=4.0 -29 -2.0 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 24Nov2001 06:30 41.1S 175.1E ML=3.5 IGNS SE of Upper Hutt, N.Z.
Note (IGNS): Likely to been felt in the Wellington region.
Note: This is probably a FFA from the Kunlun Mts. as it lies at
107 degrees from the CMT epicenter, as distance at which strong FFA
is expected.

ASIA

O: 24NOV2001 05:46:30 26.0N 122.1E M =4.8 GSSC TAIWAN REGION
Note: This earthquake occurred as the geomagnetic storm hit earth
last night. It is located within the seismic watch area for that
storm.

O: 24NOV2001 16:15:30 23.4N 120.3E ML=4.1 CWB Chiayi, Taiwan

O: 23nov2001 20:43:01 36.2N 071.6E Mw=6.1 ASC WNW of Yundeh, Pakistan

O: 24NOV2001 02:56 25.1N 125.4E Mj=5.2 NIED NEAR_MIYAKOJIMA_ISLAND, JAPAN

O: 24NOV2001 16:29:06 33.7N 140.8E MB=5.3 GSSC SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU,
O: 24NOV2001 16:29 33.2N 141.2E Mj=4.6 NIED E_OFF_HACHIJOJIMA_ISLAND, JAPAN

O: 23NOV2001 12:34:30 9.5S 115.3E SR=5.1 AEIC1 S DENPASAR , INDONESIA

O: 23NOV2001 08:59:40 8.5S 116.2E SR=5.0 AEIC1 E MATARAM , INDONESIA

O: 23NOV2001 08:27:20 13.1S 113.5E SR=4.9 AEIC1 S DENPASAR , INDONESIA
O: 23NOV2001 07:58:00 11.3S 114.9E SR=4.9 AEIC1 S DENPASAR , INDONESIA

O: 23NOV2001 02:23:20 7.2S 118.2E SR=4.7 AEIC1 N DOMPU , INDONESIA

O: 23NOV2001 00:17:00 10.2S 113.1E SR=5.0 AEIC1 S LUMAJANG , INDONESIA

O: 24NOV2001 14:44:50 36.8N 70.6E MB=4.3 GSSC HINDU KUSH, AFGHANISTAN
O: 24nov2001 14:44:50 36.8N 070.6E Mb=4.3 ASC ESE of Munji, Afghanistan

O: 24nov2001 02:43:00 23.6N 070.3E ML=4.2 ASC NNW Chobari, Gujarat, India

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 23NOV2001 20:23:44 13.5N 91.6W ML=4.5 SSN COSTA GUATEMALA
O: 23NOV2001 11:30:15 13.7N 91.9W ML=4.6 SSN COSTA GUATEMALA

O: 23NOV2001 22:40:43 17.0N 100.3W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 23NOV2001 20:00:07 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 23NOV2001 12:58:45 16.9N 100.3W ML=3.5 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 24NOV2001 11:21:03 16.9N 100.2W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 24NOV2001 05:51:49 16.9N 100.2W ML=4.2 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
Note: The earthquake at 05:51 occurred as the geomagnetic storm hit earth
last night. It is located within the seismic watch area for that
storm.

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 24Nov2001 18:05:49 46.6N 10.2E ML=3.3 SED Sta. Maria / Switzerland
O: 24NOV2001 18:05:50 46.5N 10.7E Ml=3.1 LED NORTHERN ITALY

O: 24NOV2001 08:04:06 43.1N 0.3E Ml=2.5 LDG FRANCE

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 24NOV2001 3:09:09 40.3N 118.7W ML=2.4 NCSN WNW of Lovelock, NV

O: 24NOV2001 2:38:54 36.1N 117.7W ML=2.3 NCSN E of Coso Junction, CA

O: 23NOV2001 23:57:48 40.8N 123.2W ML=2.4 NCSN NNW of Hayfork, CA

O: 24NOV2001 5:01:07 37.8N 121.6W ML=2.4 NCSN SSE of Brentwood, CA

O: 24NOV2001 9:28:49 36.6N 118.2W ML=3.0 NCSN WNW of Lone Pine, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 22NOV2001 03:36:15 49.5N 115.7W ML=1.8 PGC 6 km SSE Cranbrook BC

O: 22NOV2001 01:35:12 49.6N 127.2W ML=1.4 PGC 7 km W Gold R. BC

O: 22NOV2001 03:14:12 52.7N 132.2W ML=1.8 PGC 9 km SSW Sandspit BC
O: 21NOV2001 18:31:07 52.8N 132.3W ML=1.7 PGC 9 km SW Sandspit BC
O: 21NOV2001 18:28:16 52.9N 132.3W ML=2.8 PGC 4 km SW Sandspit BC

O: 24NOV2001 11:39:05 47.8N 122.8W ML=1.1 PNSN WNW of Poulsbo, WA

O: 24NOV2001 9:25:08 47.6N 121.9W ML=1.3 PNSN S of Carnation, Wa

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 23NOV2001 06:43:23 48.4N 91.4W ML=1.4 GSC ATIKOKAN, ONT.
O: 23NOV2001 06:43:36 48.4N 91.4W ML=1.6 GSC ATIKOKAN, ONT.
Note: This is a relatively active site near the Minnesota/Ontario
border. There have been 6 earthquake located within 200 km of this
epicenter during 2001. Seventy-three events have been located in this
area since 1950, the largest of which was a Ml 3.9 on Feb. 11, 1984.

ALASKA

O: 24NOV2001 16:34:02 60.7N 153.0W ML=3.1 AEIC NW of Homer, Alaska

O: 24NOV2001 16:58:03 59.0N 150.8W ML=3.0 AEIC SE of Seldovia, Alaska