There has been a group of swarm of small earthquakes in Poland over the
past two days, including the following events:

O: 24NOV2001 05:13:45 51.1N 15.8E ML=2.3 BGR POLAND
O: 24NOV2001 20:26:34 51.3N 15.8E ML=2.5 BGR POLAND

Source:
http://www-seismo.hannover.bgr.de/cgi-bin/epxlist.script

Don had anticipated an event in Poland at this time. His forecast
had been for an event between Nov. 23 and Nov 27 within 65 km of
50.8N 15.0E with Ml 2.4-3.7. The prediction was post # 11194 posted
on November 21.

This event is located 65 km from Don's predicted epicenter, within
the time window and is 0.1 units out of the predicted magnitude range.
Because of the conventional error in determined magnitude (about 0.1-0.2
units), I usually accept as successful an event which is within
0.1 units of magnitude of the stated range. In this regard, this
prediction is completely successful.

Probability:

Since 11-21-2000, there have been 17 5-day time periods which have
contained an event matching Don's predicted parameters. In the same
period there have been 73 5-day periods. The probability is thus
17/73 = 0.23 or odds of about 1 in 4 for success. Because of the
relatively high odds, I'll give you an "A-" on this one, Don.

Don's original forecast for Poland was:
(P.S. the window is still open for more events until Nov. 27)

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11194.html

Charastava, Poland Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 21, 2001 at 12:17:06:

Magnitude: 2.4-3.7Ml
From: 11/23/2001UTC - To: 11/27/2001UTC
Location: Chrastava, Poland
Lat: 50.8N - Long: 15.0E - Range: 65Km

Hi All. In anticipation of the garlic/onion pie that Petra is going to fix
for me I thought I would make a forecast for a place we never hear about
having an earthquake. Boy! Was I surprised. This country has a lot of
earthquakes. Not at the same level as we do in California, but enough so they
can say they have earthquakes.

I'm looking for a 2.4 to 3.7 at 50.8N/15.0E. This is about 11 Km SE of
Chrastava, Poland. Should occur on 11/25/2001. The window on this opens on
11/23/2001 and will close on 11/27/2001. The radius on this is 65Km.
Take Care...Don in creepy town

The following Correction was posted by Pavel Kalenda last night

Re: Charastava, Poland Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Pavel Kalenda on November 23, 2001 at 22:54:36:

In Reply to: Charastava, Poland Earthquake Forecast posted by Don In
Hollister on November 21, 2001 at 12:17:06:

Hi Don,
you are a bit wrong. Chrastava is not in Poland but in Czech Republic close
to the border with Poland and Germany.
Localisation of this event is probably wrong too, because in this region is
Lubin area with high induced seismicity. In this copper mine there are serious
rockbursts every year. Maximum of magnitudo is about 5, but the consequences
are serious.
Pavel Kalenda