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Posted by Lowell on November 17, 2001 at 19:29:26:
There was a Mb 5.3 on the East Pacific Rise today. This event, however
was quite a ways from Don's forecast East Pacific Rise event which
was also supposed to occur today - certainly not in the 65 km radius. NEIS lists the following event: 01/11/17 19:02:11 24.46S 115.93W 10.0 5.3M A SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE Don had an East Pacific Rise event forcast for Nov. 17 with Mb 4.2-5.7
within 65 km of 36S 98W. His forecast was correct in all details
except for location which was in the right general area (southern
East Pacific Rise), but still far from today's earthquake. There have been 16 5-day periods this year out of 64 such possible
periods during which an earthquake of Mb>=4.2 has occurred in the
southern East Pacific Rise 20S-40S 120W -90W during 2001, so the
probability of an event in this region in a given 5-day period is
about 0.25 or odds of success of 1 in 4. Of course, the predictive
window is not yet up, so the event forecast by Don may yet happen
with a complete (instead of partial) success. Don's Complete forecast (# 10788 in archives) had read:
East Pacific Rise Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 08, 2001 at 22:28:37:
Magnitude: 4.2-5.7Mb
From: 11/15/2001UTC - To: 11/19/2001UTC
Location: East Pacific Rise
Lat: 36.0S - Long: 98.0W - Range: 65Km Hi All. I'm getting into deep water with this one. Like I'm up to my chin so
don't anyone create a wave. I'm looking for a 4.2 to 5.7Mb at 36.0S/98.0W. This is the East Pacific Rise.
It should occur on 11/17/2001. The window opens on 11/15/2001 and will close
on 11/19/2001. The radius on this will be 65Km. Take Care...Don in deep water
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