Ml 3.1 HITS NEAR LOMA PRIETA MAINSHOCK RUPTURE INITIATION

SUMMARY

An unusual Ml 3.1 occurred today near the rupture point of the
Loma Prieta (1989 Mw 7.1) mainshock south of San Francisco near
Aptos, CA. This is the first event in this region of Ml>=3 since
1998. The event was followed by a Ml 2.4 north near Ramon, CA.
This report yesterday suggested the area may be becoming active.

" The largest event in the Northern/Central California area was a
Ml 2.5 (BAAAA) in the Pacifica region near San Francisco. This breaks a
relative quiet in that region."

GLOBAL

Global events was light and mostly concentrated in regions of FFA activity.
Events of Ml >=5 occurred in the Tonga Islands (Ml 5.1) and in the
New Britain region (Mb 5.1), both areas of expected FFA events.
An unusual earthquake also occurred in the Greenland Sea (Mb 5.0).
Other events occurred as aftershocks in Qinghai (Ml 4.9); and in
Central Iran (Mb 4.7), also FFAs.

U.S./CANADA

The largest earthquake in the U.S./Canada region today occurred this
afternoon in Central Alaska (Ml 4.2) and was preceded by several
foreshocks. No events of Ml>3 were recorded in Hawaii today.
In the California/Nevada region, other than the Aptos earthquake,
conditions were relatively quiet. Events of Ml>=2 also occurred near
Castaic Lake Dam (Ml 2.1) west of Los Angeles, the Geysers (Ml 2.3);
Coso Junction (Ml 2.0) and San Ramon, east of San Francisco (Ml 2.4).
Activity in other areas of the U.S. and Canada was relatively
light with no events of Ml>=2 recorded today.

NEW ZEALAND

The IGNS on-line seismogram shows a moderate (ML>=4) regional event
this morning (the event with about a minute of red coloration). This
earthquake probably occurred in southen North Island to northern
South Island and was probably felt in the epicentral area.
A number of other light regional quakes were also recorded
in the region today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at quiet conditions today. There
were no solar flares of M- or X- class observed.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011116events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

No tropical storms were located around the world's oceans today.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 17 is the third day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=4.0 6 1.9 0.05
Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 45 2.3 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 23 2.6 0.03
Mt ST.Helens MB>=1.0 29 2.2 0.05
Spain MB>=4.0 31 2.2 0.05
Arctic MB>=4.0 36 2.3 0.04
Caribbean MB>=4.0 27 3.0 0.01
Caucasus MB>=4.0 23 2.9 0.01
So. California MB>=0.0 10 2.7 0.03
So. California MB>=2.0 22 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 16Nov2001 04:58:55 6.2S 151.9E MB=5.1 NEIS NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
Note: This is probably a FFA from the Kunlun Mts. It lies at 71-72
degrees from that event in New Britain, an area where FFA were
expected. The forecast had stated:

"71-73 degrees: ... New Britain,"

ASIA

O: 16Nov2001 16:40:36 42.6N 75.3E ML>4.0 NEIS LAKE ISSYK-KUL REGION

O: 16Nov2001 01:09:27 30.5N 50.4E MB=4.7 NEIS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IRAN
Note: This appears to be a FFA from the Kunlun Mts. mainshock as it
lies 34 degrees from that event. The FFA forecast had stated:

"34-36 degrees: Eastern Turkey, Iraq, Caucasus, E. Gulf of Aden"

O: 15Nov2001 22:15:27 47.2N 146.2E MB=4.4 NEIS NORTHWEST OF KURIL ISLANDS
Note: This appears to be a FFA from the Kunlun Mts. mainshock as it
lies 43 degrees from that event. The FFA forecast had stated:

"43-45 degrees: ... So. Kuril Islands"
and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Off East Coast of Honshu, or Southern Kuriles"

O: 16NOV2001 16:32 35.6N 140.2E Mj=4.5 NIED CENTRAL_CHIBA_PREF, JAPAN

O: 15Nov2001 21:42:43 35.8N 94.8E MB=4.3 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 16Nov2001 07:54:11 35.7N 94.1E MB=4.9 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 14Nov2001 23:57:31 43.6S 76.4W MB=4.6 NEIS OFF COAST OF S CHILE

O: 16Nov2001 01:14:27 12.5N 87.5W MB=4.1 NEIS NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA

O: 16NOV2001 19:07:21 11.2N 87.7W MC=3.8 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 15NOV2001 19:43:39 15.7N 95.4W ML=3.9 SSN GOLFO DE TEHUANTEPEC , MX

O: 15NOV2001 12:45:36 16.2N 98.2W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA GUERRERO-OAXACA , MX
O: 15NOV2001 11:18:52 16.4N 98.1W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA GUERRERO-OAXACA , MX
O: 14NOV2001 17:42:03 16.1N 98.2W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA GUERRERO-OAXACA , MX

EUROPE

O: 16NOV2001 04:44:24 38.4N 43.1E ML=3.6 KAN VAN,TURKEY
Note: This is probably a FFA from the Kunlun Mts. It lies at 36-37
degrees from that event in eastern Turkey, an area where FFA were
expected. The forecast had stated:

"34-36 degrees: ... Eastern Turkey..."

and

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

...Westernmost and easternmost Turkey"

OCEANIA

O: 16Nov2001 16:19:36 74.8N 8.0E MB=5.0 NEIS GREENLAND SEA

O: 16Nov2001 04:02:44 1.6S 13.1W MB=4.3 NEIS NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
Note: This is probably an FFA from Kunlun Mts. It lies 103 degrees from
that event in an area where FFA were expected and follows a Ms 6.3
in the region yesterday.

"103-107 degrees***: ...Central Mid-Atlantic"

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 15Nov2001 23:02:45 35.8N 118.4W ML=2.8 NEIS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 16NOV2001 20:26:46 35.1N 118.6W ML=1.9 SCSN W of Tehachapi, CA

O: 15Nov2001 23:02:45 35.8N 118.4W ML=2.8 NEIS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 16NOV2001 15:15:31 36.1N 117.9W ML=2.0 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA

O: 16Nov2001 09:11:30 37.1N 121.9W ML=3.1 NEIS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 16NOV2001 9:11:30 37.1N 121.9W ML=3.1 NCSN N of Aptos, CA

O: 16NOV2001 19:22:51 37.5N 118.8W ML=1.9 NCSN WSW of Toms Place, CA

O: 16NOV2001 12:49:53 37.8N 122.0W ML=2.4 NCSN SE of San Ramon, CA

O: 16NOV2001 9:49:03 38.8N 122.7W ML=1.8 NCSN E of The Geysers, CA
O: 16NOV2001 19:36:40 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.3 NCSN NNW of The Geysers, CA

O: 16NOV2001 16:01:24 39.4N 119.6W ML=1.9 NCSN SE of Sparks, NV

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 16NOV2001 8:32:38 46.9N 121.9W ML=1.6 PNSN WNW of Mount Rainier

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 16NOV2001 3:37:41 41.8N 112.8W ML=1.6 UUSN W of Garland, UT
O: 14NOV2001 20:35:32 42.0N 112.6W ML=2.3 UUSN SW of Malad City, ID

O: 15Nov2001 02:26:48 43.7N 110.5W MD=2.8 NEIS WYOMING
O: 15Nov2001 02:16:27 43.7N 110.5W MD=2.9 NEIS WYOMING

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 15NOV2001 17:07:01 62.9N 70.9W ML=2.8 PGC SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND, NUNAVU

ALASKA

O: 16Nov2001 20:00:10 62.5N 149.2W MB=4.2 NEIS CENTRAL ALASKA
O: 16Nov2001 03:56:45 62.0N 148.8W ML>3.0 NEIS SOUTHERN ALASKA
O: 16NOV2001 20:00:11 62.5N 149.2W ML=3.5 AEIC ENE of Talkeetna, Alaska

O: 16Nov2001 19:01:51 54.5N 161.1W ML>3.5 NEIS ALASKA PENINSULA

O: 16Nov2001 10:01:18 60.3N 152.2W ML>3.0 NEIS SOUTHERN ALASKA