SHADOW BOUNDARY FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCKS FROM KUNLUN MTS STRONGLY FELT

SUMMARY

The first far-field aftershocks from the Kunlun Mountains great earthquake
of Nov. 14 appear to be concentrating at the core-mantle shadow zone
and the p- and s- shadow zone boundaries. Larger events concentrated
along the p- and s- boundary within 1 degree distance of 104 degrees
from the Kunlun quake. Earthquakes of Mw 6.3 (Central Mid-Atlantic
Ridge; 104 degrees); Mb 5.1 (Tonga Islands; 104 degrees); Mb 5.2 (Samoa
Islands; 103 degrees) and MB 4.6 (Fiji Islands; 103 degrees) were among
the larger events since the Kunlun quake. The Mid-Atlantic event is the
largest within 200 km of that epicenter since 1998. Eleven events have
occurred in that area of Mw>=6 since 1920, so the interevent time is about
9 years for events in that are.
The largest events in California since the Kunlun Mt. mainshock have
occurred in the Ridgecrest/Lake Isabella/Coso Junction area with Ml 2.8, 2.7
and 2.9 and near Hemet. All these events also lie 104 (Coso Junction)
or 106 degrees (Hemet) from the Kunlun mainshock.
A Ml 4.1 also occurred on North Island New Zealand this evening
and was felt at Foxton. This event is 108 degrees from Kunlun Mts.

The Far-field aftershock (FFA) forecast had stated:

" Seismicity is expected to increase in areas where seismic energy
from the great shocks is concentrated due to internal reflections
and refractions of waves off internal boundaries. Following are the
locations and distances where this is expected to occur. Triggered
activity in these regions appears likely from 14 November through
26 November. Maximum event size for these regions is expected to
increase by 1.5 magnitude units in this period."

"103-107 degrees***: California/Baja border (about 32-34N), Bermuda,
Central Mid-Atlantic, So. of Africa, Tonga/Samoa"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area"

Apparently we still await event South of Africa and in Bermuda at
the p- and s- wave shadow boundary distance.

An unusual event also occurred at 146 degrees from Kunlun in Peru.
Although small, this may be a foreshock to a larger earthquake
in the next week. It occurred off the coast of Ecuador/Peru. The FFA
forecast had stated:

"142-146 degrees: Ecuador, Galapagos"

Other FFA triggered earthquake may have occurred in the western Kuril
Islands this evening at 43 degrees from Kunlun (Mb 4.8) and in western Turkey
to the northern Red Sea where a series of events between Ml 3.5-4.0 hit today
and yesterday with distance between 43-46 degrees from the Kunlun quake and
in the Caucasus where a Ml>=4 event occurred at 34 degrees from the great quake.
Moderate (apparently FFA) also occurred in Northern Afghanistan (18 degrees
Ml>4) and east of the mainshock epicenter about 350 km (where most of the large
aftershocks appear to be centered. This level of triggering is expected
for at least the next 3-4 days after which it may gradually decline.

GLOBAL

Few events (Mb>4) which could not be considered FFA have occurred since the
Kunlun great shock. These were observed in the Near Islands (Mb 4.4, an
aftershock of the event of Nov. 13); northern Chile (Mb 4.3); the
South Caroline Islands (Mb 5.3).
Events which could marginally be considered FFA (they occurred in
areas where FFA were considered likely, but not within the exact distance
ranges) occurred in the Timor Sea (Mb 5.3, 4.8); the Solomon Islands (Mb 4.7);
and just south of Luzon, Philippines (Mb 5.1)

U.S./CANADA

Seismicity in the U.S. and Canada was relatively quiet today.
The strongest events occurred as Ml 2.9's in the Jackson Lake
region of Wyoming in the contiguous U.S. The largest event of the
day recorded in the region was the Ml 4.4 aftershock at Near Island,
Aleutians, Alaska. A Ml 3.6 was listed for Hawaii, but these
are usually downsized within a few days, so the final magnitude
is in doubt.
In California/Nevada, the strongest activity occurred in the
Coso Junction/Ridgecrest/Lake Isabella area with events of Ml 2.9, 2.8
and 2.7 since the Kunlun mainshock occurring at 104 degrees from that
event. SCSN also recorded 2 shocks of Ml 2.4 in the Calexico/El Centro
region on the border with Baja, Mexico, suggesting a possible new
region for stronger quakes in the next week after the sudden termination
of the Bombay Beach swarm which coincided with the great Kunlun quake.
The Bombay Beach swarm may have been a far-field effect from the New
Britain quake of October 31. While other FFA effects from that forecast
had expired at the time of the Bombay Beach swarm, the forecast for
that area was still in effect at the time of the swarm. The FFA forecast
had stated:

" There is a strong relationship between New Britain events and
succeeding earthquake in southern California especially in the
area of Anza to the Salton Sea. This is probably because wave
fronts from New Britain arrive approximately parallel to the
San Andreas in this region, promoting larger events. This area
should remain active for several week. A larger event in this
area often occurs 28-33 or 43-46 days after the event in New
Britain, so the danger is not yet over."

With the occurrence of the Kunlun quake and this area within
a strong FFA triggering zone at the s-wave shadow zone boundary,
the potential for a strong event still exists, and may even
have increased. A strong geomagnetic storm in the region in the
next several days would not be helpful in maintaining the current
temporary quiet of the region.

The largest event in the Northern/Central California area was a
Ml 2.5 in the Pacifica region near San Francisco. This breaks a
relative quiet in that region. This was followed later in the day
by events of Md 2.4 near San Juan Bautista and Md 2.3 near San Benito, CA.

No events of Ml>=2 were listed for today in the Pacific northwest
the Central Mountain states or the eastern U.S.

A series of light earthquakes was continuing in the borderland
region between Quebec and New York State where earthquakes of
Ml 3.2 have occurred near Maniwaki QUE and Petawa, ONT Canada since
the Kunlun mainshock. The Maniwaki Ml 3.2 was later followed by a
Mn 2.0 aftershock.
Both of the Ml 3.2 events may have been FFA from Kunlun. The
FFA forecast had stated:

"Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=3 or unusual events)

Eastern New York State"

These events lie near the NE corner of New York State.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS reported a Ml 3.7 on North Island which was felt at Foxton
this afternoon. The on-line seismogram shows three regional events which
may have been felt in their respective areas. Two of these appeart to have
occurred near the seismogram, the third was further afield (see red lines
on seismogram). A number of other light regional quakes were also recorded
in the region today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

A moderate geomagnetic storm lasting for about 6 hours began with
a sudden increase of about 25% in the geomagnetic field strength in 2
minutes from about 15:08 to 15:10 UT and ended with an equally
dramatic decrease in field strength at 16:58 UT. Neither field change
was recorded as long period variations the USGS on-line seismogram
array. I has been suggested that sudden field changes cause induce
electrical currents which interfere with seismogram recordings. This
strong geomagnetic field change, but weak geomagnetic storm which
did not register on seismograms suggests this is not a satisfactory
explanation for these apparent motion on seismograms at the times
of sudden commencement geomagnetic storms. This storm was not long
or strong enough to warrant a seismic alert based on geomagnetic
effects. A weak increase in seismicity rate may occur in sub- and
anti-solar areas for the next day. Sub-solar areas were within 20

degrees longitude of 60W; anti-solar areas within 20 degrees of 120E.
No solar flares of M- or X- Class were recorded for November 15.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011115events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

No tropical storms were located around the world's oceans today.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 16 is the second day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Idaho MB>=1.0 15 1.9 0.05
New Zealand MB>=4.0 17 2.0 0.05
NW Europe MB>=4.0 9 2.0 0.05
So South America MB>=4.0 36 4.0 0.01
Central California MB>=2.0 7 1.9 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 48 2.4 0.04
Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 26 2.9 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Global MB>=6.0 -14 -2.3 0.04
Siberia MB>=4.0 -45 -2.4 0.04

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 15Nov2001 15:59 40.3S 175.4E ML=3.9 IGNS W. of Palmerston North, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Felt in Foxton

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 15NOV2001 08:13:41 20.3S 176.8W MB=4.6 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS REGION
O: 14Nov2001 16:52:44 20.3S 175.9W MB=5.1 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS
Note: These events are probably a FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. earthquake.
They lie at 103-104 degrees from that event at the p- and s-wave shadow
zone boundary where FFA triggering is expected. The far-field aftershock
forecast had said:

"103-107 degrees***: Tonga/Samoa"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:
Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area"

O: 14Nov2001 13:38:46 15.1S 174.2W MB=5.2 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS
Note: This event is probably a FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. earthquake.
It lies at 103 degrees from that event at the p- and s-wave shadow
zone boundary where FFA triggering is expected. The far-field aftershock
forecast had said:

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area"

and

"103-107 degrees***: ...Tonga/Samoa"

O: 14Nov2001 21:12:04 8.0S 159.0E MB=4.7 NEIS SOLOMON ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 15NOV2001 22:15:24 47.2N 147.0E MB=4.9 GSSC W. KURIL ISLANDS, RU
Note: This appears to be a FFA from the Kunlun Mts. mainshock as it
lies 43 degrees from that event. The FFA forecast had stated:

"43-45 degrees: ... So. Kuril Islands"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Off East Coast of Honshu, or Southern Kuriles"

O: 14Nov2001 07:28:44 12.6N 126.0E MB=4.5 NEIS PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

O: 15Nov2001 10:59:28 9.7N 122.6E MB=5.1 NEIS NEGROS, PHILIPPINES

O: 14Nov2001 12:42:12 4.2N 132.8E MB=5.2 NEIS W. CAROLINE ISL

O: 14Nov2001 13:52:44 35.4N 68.8E ML>4.0 NEIS HINDU KUSH, AFGHANISTAN

O: 14Nov2001 17:13:04 8.7S 124.2E MB=5.3 NEIS TIMOR REGION
O: 14Nov2001 18:07:36 8.9S 124.1E MB=4.8 NEIS TIMOR REGION

O: 14Nov2001 23:49:12 35.6N 94.6E MB=4.6 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 14Nov2001 23:05:27 35.6N 94.5E MB=5.1 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 14Nov2001 21:23:32 35.7N 94.0E MB=4.8 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 14Nov2001 21:21:54 35.8N 91.4E MB=4.7 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA

O: 15NOV2001 00:21:30 6.1S 124.9E SR=4.8 AEIC1 N KALABAHI, INDONESIA

O: 14NOV2001 17:13:00 9.4S 124.2E SR=6.0 AEIC1 PANTAIMAKASAR, INDONESIA

O: 14NOV2001 01:50:00 9.4S 115.2E SR=5.3 AEIC1 S DENPASAR, INDONESIA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 14Nov2001 18:03:39 23.4S 67.2W MB=4.3 NEIS CHILE-ARGENTINA BORDER REG

O: 15Nov2001 07:22:46 4.1S 80.8W MB=4.1 NEIS PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
Note: This event is probably a FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. earthquake.
It lies at 146 degrees from that event at the core-mantle shadow
zone boundary where FFA triggering is expected. The far-field aftershock
forecast had said:

"142-146 degrees: Ecuador, Galapagos"

O: 15NOV2001 06:15:28 10.3N 85.8W MC=3.7 CASC COSTA RICA, C.A.
O: 15NOV2001 06:58:04 10.3N 85.9W MC=3.9 CASC COSTA RICA, C.A.

O: 15NOV2001 08:30:01 12.6N 86.8W MC=3.6 CASC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA

O: 15NOV2001 00:39:04 11.8N 86.6W MC=3.5 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 15NOV2001 03:23:36 12.6N 88.8W MC=3.5 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 15NOV2001 12:19:34 11.4N 87.2W MC=3.5 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 16NOV2001 01:14:42 12.8N 87.4W ML=4.2 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 15NOV2001 04:51:37 16.9N 100.2W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX

O: 14NOV2001 17:42:03 16.1N 98.2W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA GUERRERO-OAXACA, MX

O: 15NOV2001 14:13:30 10.4N 70.9W Mc=3.8 ULA Miranda, Venezuela

EUROPE

O: 16NOV2001 01:23:41 40.3N 33.8E ML=3.8 KAN KANKIRI, TURKEY

O: 15NOV2001 18:15:20 35.4N 31.4E ML=3.7 KAN AKDENYZ, TURKEY
O: 15NOV2001 13:15:44 35.9N 31.1E ML=3.7 KAN AKDENYZ, TURKEY

O: 15NOV2001 04:16:18 38.9N 31.4E ML=3.2 KAN AFYON, TURKEY

O: 14NOV2001 08:37:47 40.1N 19.6E ML=3.4 NOA GREECE

O: 14NOV2001 19:55:47 38.1N 23.6E ML=3.7 NOA GREECE

O: 14NOV2001 23:52:39 35.0N 24.1E ML=3.6 NOA GREECE

O: 15NOV2001 09:42:17 43.1N 47.0E MB>4.0 GSSC EASTERN CAUCASUS

OCEANIA

O: 14Nov2001 16:38:16 55.8S 29.1W MB=4.0 NEIS SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION

O: 15Nov2001 01:03:05 1.8S 15.5W MW=6.3 NEIS NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
Note: This event is probably a FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. earthquake.
It lies at 104 degrees from that event at the p- and s-wave shadow
zone boundary where FFA triggering is expected. The far-field aftershock
forecast had said:

103-107 degrees***: ...Central Mid-Atlantic"

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 15NOV2001 18:56:33 32.3N 115.2W MC=2.4 SCSN SSE of Calexico, CA

O: 15NOV2001 22:44:11 32.8N 115.6W ML=2.4 SCSN WNW of El Centro, CA

O: 15NOV2001 22:44:11 32.8N 115.6W ML=2.3 SCSN WNW of El Centro, CA

O: 15NOV2001 23:02:45 35.8N 118.4W ML=2.8 SCSN N of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 15NOV2001 23:09:37 35.8N 118.4W ML=1.9 SCSN NNE of Lake Isabella, CA
Note: This event is probably a FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. earthquake.
It lies at 104 degrees from that event at the p- and s-wave shadow
zone boundary where FFA triggering is expected. The far-field aftershock
forecast had said:

"103-107 degrees***: California/Baja border (about 32-34N)..."

O: 15NOV2001 12:35:06 35.8N 118.0W ML=2.7 SCSN SSW of Coso Junction, CA
O: 15NOV2001 17:10:00 36.0N 117.9W ML=1.6 NCSN E of Coso Junction, CA
O: 15NOV2001 20:53:01 36.0N 117.9W ML=1.7 NCSN E of Coso Junction, CA
Note: This event is probably a FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. earthquake.
It lies at 104 degrees from that event at the p- and s-wave shadow
zone boundary where FFA triggering is expected. The far-field aftershock
forecast had said:

"103-107 degrees***: California/Baja border (about 32-34N)"

O: 16NOV2001 3:07:59 36.5N 121.1W ML=2.3 NCSN ESE of Pinnacles, CA

O: 15NOV2001 18:58:06 36.8N 121.5W ML=2.4 NCSN S of San Juan Bautista, CA

O: 15NOV2001 8:15:47 37.0N 121.6W ML=2.0 NCSN WSW of Gilroy, CA

O: 15NOV2001 10:50:58 37.6N 122.5W ML=2.5 NCSN SE of Pacifica, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 12Nov2001 19:03:13 44.0N 128.4W MB=4.4 NEIS OFF COAST OF OREGON
O: 12Nov2001 19:02:13 44.0N 128.1W MB=4.4 NEIS OFF COAST OF OREGON

O: 15NOV2001 4:51:17 48.3N 122.6W ML=1.0 PNSN SW of Mount Vernon, WA

O: 15NOV2001 0:11:46 47.7N 117.4W ML=2.1 PNSN NNE of Spokane, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 15NOV2001 02:16:27 43.6N 110.5W ML=2.9 USBR 11 km NE of Kelly, WY
O: 15NOV2001 02:26:48 43.6N 110.5W ML=2.8 USBR 11 km NE of Kelly, WY
O: 15NOV2001 02:45:35 43.6N 110.5W ML=2.6 USBR 11 km NE of Kelly, WY
O: 16NOV2001 04:19:01 43.4N 110.9W ML=2.5 USBR 6 km SW of Wilson, WY

O: 14NOV2001 4:25:46 39.5N 111.2W ML=2.0 UUSN ESE of Mount Pleasant, UT
O: 13NOV2001 20:10:23 39.5N 111.2W ML=2.1 UUSN ESE of Mount Pleasant, UT
O: 13NOV2001 15:47:03 39.5N 111.2W ML=1.8 UUSN ESE of Mount Pleasant, UT

O: 13NOV2001 3:59:16 44.3N 110.7W ML=1.3 UUSN SW of West Thumb, WY
O: 13NOV2001 3:51:53 44.3N 110.7W ML=2.2 UUSN SW of West Thumb, WY
O: 13NOV2001 3:50:37 44.3N 110.7W ML=1.8 UUSN SW of West Thumb, WY

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 15NOV2001 07:12:01 46.8N 76.1W MN=2.0 GSC N from Maniwaki, Que. Aftshock.
O: 15NOV2001 07:06:08 46.7N 76.1W MN=3.2 GSC N from Maniwaki, Que.
O: 10NOV2001 05:18:36 46.4N 76.3W MN=3.2 GSC W from MANIWAKI, QUE.
Note: The two latest (including the Ml 3.2) may be FFA from the Kunlun
great shock. The FFA forecast had stated:

"Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=3 or unusual events)

Eastern New York State"

These events lie near the NE New York State/Quebec boundary.

O: 11NOV2001 16:41:52 46.3N 76.9W MN=2.3 GSC NE from PETAWAWA, ONT.
O: 14NOV2001 20:21:59 46.5N 77.4W MN=3.2 GSC N from Petawawa, Ont.
O: 10NOV2001 11:34:41 46.3N 77.0W MN=2.0 GSC NE from Petawawa, Ont.
Note: The two latest (including the Ml 3.2) may be FFA from the Kunlun
great shock. The FFA forecast had stated:

"Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=3 or unusual events)

Eastern New York State"

These events lie near the NE New York State/Ontario boundary.

O: 13NOV2001 21:42:03 47.2N 74.8W MN=2.2 GSC S from Parent, Que.

O: 13NOV2001 18:30:43 49.5N 67.0W MN=1.5 GSC NE from Matane, Que.

ALASKA

O: 15NOV2001 20:28:25 63.9N 150.4W ML=3.2 AEIC NNE of Kantishna, Alaska

O: 15Nov2001 01:12:45 53.7N 170.4E MB=4.4 NEIS NEAR ISL, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

HAWAII

O: 15NOV2001 23:14:48 19.3N 155.5W ML=3.5 HVO N of Pahala, Hawaii