Don, There are dozens of active faults in southern California. I better not do earthquake predictions-I'll just point out seismicity patterns in southern California that I consider unusual or unexplained. My few so-called predictions that I have sent out to a few people have been worse than chance. If you want to look at what is known about southern California faults, try the SCEC clickable fault map. However, this map is woefully inadequate for the offshore. There has been a lot of recent research published on static stress changes: one large earthquake advances the time of a future quake on one fault and delays it on another. It would be considered mainstream seismology that an earthquake is more likely at the end of an earlier rupture-see the 1999 Turkey earthquakes, or the Turkey North Anatolia fault earthquakes through the 20th century. Also, it is mainstream seismology that if a (deep) fault is slipping at, say, 10 mm/yr, and its locked surface part slips 1000 mm in an earthquake, it should have an earthquake every 100 years, and if it has been 120 years since the last 1 m event, you should be concerned. Concerning your Santa Barbara prediction, the center of your prediction is near the Oak Ridge fault (I'd have to pull out a map, but am too lazy). I've seen oral presentations by Bob Yeats suggesting that the Oak Ridge, being in some way linked to the faults that caused the Northridge event in 1994, was on the ripe side. There are other, more active faults beneath the northern part of Santa Barbara Channel. These faults are mostly blind (buried), so do not show up accurately on the state fault maps. There are also active strike-slip faults cutting through the offshore northern Channel Islands, and there are buried faults that cause the folding of the islands. I have worked and am still working on all of these faults. Maybe I'll check my web page later and see if I have any of this on it, and send you the address to your email address only. Oh, by the way, various of these faults are large enough in the Santa Barbara Channel area that if they were to rupture in one piece they could cause earthquakes considerably larger than M7. But, it is controversial whether they would rupture a whole fault system in 1 piece: 1925 Santa Barbara, 1978 UCSB, 1971 San Fernando, 1987 (?) Whittier, and 1994 Northridge broke parts of much larger fault systems. But, for all we know this is how these systems break. An earthquake in 1812, 13 days after one on the San Andreas, occurred somewhere in or around Santa Barbara Channel. It is generally considered to be larger than M7. I would not be too eager to up your magnitude estimate though: there were lots of small earthquakes in the channel in the 1960s and 1970s that did not set off a major quake. Chris