Posted by Lowell on November 12, 2001 at 21:26:19:
How are things going over there in the Norway/Sweden region. The reader may recall that Don had another forecast going for that region at this time. I checked the major network - NORSAR and HAGSFOR (NOR and HFS) to see what they had recorded over the past several days. The site can be visited at: http://www.norsar.no/bulletins/alert/ I found the following listings for Norway/Sweden since November 9: YEAR MO DA HR MN SEC AGENCY N LAT E LONG DEP LOCATION Ml=1.4 2001-11-12 16:18:26.6 NORES 60.73 10.54 6 Oslo Region Norway ML=1.5 2001-11-11 15:28:49.8 HFS 59.47 11.65 14 Vaermland Region Sweden ML=1.5 2001-11-11 15:28:48.4 NORES 59.39 11.54 9 Vaermland Region Sweden ML=1.3 2001-11-10 08:21:46.1 HFS 59.40 11.58 11 Vaermland Region Sweden ML=2.0 2001-11-09 00:28:02.0 NORES 60.43 10.13 21 Vaermland Region Sweden To get an idea of the background seismicity in this region you can look at the Northern Europe list of recent earthquakes (about 5 days behind) at: http://www.seismo.helsinki.fi/
This catalog does not show any events in the above active region of the past several days in Sweden/Norway unfortunately, so we must assume that events in this area of M>=2 are fairly rare. Don had suggested the possibility of regional activation in this area in his prediction of November 6, 2001. In that prediction he had suggested an event of M 2.2-3.7 within 80 km of 60N 12.1E. within the period Nov. 9 through Nov. 13, most likely on the 11th November. All of the Vaermland region, Sweden events fall within the time window and distance range. But are slightly shy of the projected magnitude. Of course, the window is still open, so a further event may yet occur in this swarm. We will wait for a final evaluation until the window closes, as usual. Don's forecast had read: Skotterud, Norway Earthquake Forecast Posted by Don In Hollister on November 06, 2001 at 10:06:04: Magnitude: 2.2-3.7 From: 11/09/2001UTC - To: 11/13/2001UTC Location: Skotterud, Norway Lat: 60.0N - Long: 12.1E - Range: 80Km Hi All. After having a good nights sleep, with no dreams that I can remember, and having started my day with my usual ration of a raw onion and garlic sandwich with two Moosehead Beers I'm ready to meet the days challenges. Well anyway I like to think I am. Looking for a quake at 60.0N/12.1E. This is about 3Km NW of Skotterud, Norway. The magnitude should be in the range of 2.2 to 3.7 and should occur on 11/11/2001. The window opens on 11/09/2001 and will close on 11/13/2001. The radius on this will be 80Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town
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