MODERATE (ML 6.0) EARTHQUAKE HITS OAXACA/GUERRERO, MEXICO
UNUSUAL EARTHQUAKES FOLLOW IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE (Ml 3.4) NO CAL (MB 4.0)

SUMMARY

A moderate earthquake struck the central Mexico region near the
states of Oaxaca/Guerrero this morning. SSN (the local network out
of University of Mexico, Mexico City) gives this event a Ml 6.0
(NEIS preliminary MB = 5.2). Following are the parameters for
this event which was preceded by a series of light foreshocks:

O: 10NOV2001 17:09:09 15.5N 98.5W ML=6.0 SSN COSTA DE OAXACA , MX
O: 10Nov2001 17:09:18 16.2N 98.0W MB=5.2 NEIS NEAR COAST GUERRERO, MEX
O: 10Nov2001 10:49:00 16.1N 98.2W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST GUERRERO, MEX
O: 10Nov2001 10:38:58 16.2N 98.1W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST GUERRERO, MEX

For a list of Mexican earthquakes from SSN see:
http://www.ssn.unam.mx/SSN/ssn-ultimos.html

Hurricane Michelle had been expected to impact the seismicity
of this region. This forecast had specifically noted the influence
of a hurricane on this event as well. The magnitude was probably
affected by effects from Hurricane Michelle. This is the largest
earthquake in Mexico since a MB 5.5 (ML 6.1) earthquake about 200 km NW of
this epicenter on October 8, 2001. That event has had a strong
and long series of aftershocks in the Ml 3-4.7 range which is still
continuing at this time. No other events in Mexico have had Ml>=6
The region within 100 km of this epicenter has experienced 36
events of ML>=6 since 1899, about one every three years. The last
such event was a Mb 6.3 on Dec. 16, 1997.
This is the second event of M>=6 to hit the Central America region
in the past two days - yesterday there was a Mb 6.1 in the Caribbean
north of Panama/Costa Rica.

The Mexican earthquake was followed by an unusual earthquake slightly
more than an hour later in northern Washington state (Ml 3.4). This earthquake
had the following parameters:

O: 10NOV2001 18:30:59 48.9N 123.0W ML=3.4 PNSN N of Friday Harbor, WA

This is the first event of ML>=3 in Washington state since a Ml 3.0
in the Deming area on October 6, and the largest event in the state since
a Ml 4.3 near Olympia, WA on July 22, 2001. It was followed about
two hours later by a Ml 2.3 near Hyak, WA. The reader of these reports
may recall from yesterday's report that the Pacific Northwest had
experienced a nearly two-week hiatus in earthquakes of Ml>=2 which
was broken yesterday (and more extensively today) with a Ml 2.1 near
Morton, WA.

Less than 30 minutes after the Friday Harbor quake, a second regional
earthquake occurred off the coast of Northern California. This event
had magnitude Mb=4.0 (USGS) and the following parameters:

O: 10NOV2001 18:55:32 41.2N 126.4W MB=4.0 NEIS OFF COAST OF N CALIFORNIA

This is a fairly active seismic zone. The last event of Ml>=4 within
100 km of this epicenter was a Mb 5.3 SW of here on Sept. 20, 2001. The
only other event in the area since April of Mb>=4 occurred North of
todays's epicenter on July 12, 2001 (Ml 4.5).

This report had expected large global events to occur between 10-12 November
as reported on November 6:

"Strongest seismicity (i.e. events of Mw>6 and in this case probably
at least one event of Mw>7) is most likely to occur 4-6 days after the
storm commencement in the sub- or anti-solar regions or at high
latitudes. This would place these events around 10-12 November.
Enhanced seismicity in volcanic regions (Volcanos or volcanic arcs and
mid-ocean ridges) should also increase around November 10-12."

The Hurricane Michelle link had been examined in earlier reports
which stated:

" A possibly delayed seismic event from Hurricane
Michelle occurred tonight in the Costa-Rica/Panama region. This
earthquake measured Mw 6.0 and is the largest in North or Central
America since September when a Mw 6.1 occurred in Guerrero Mexico.
The seismic forecast from Michelle had stated on November 2:

" After landfall a moderate to strong earthquake is possible in either
the north or northeastern Caribbean subduction zone or in the
Mexican/Central America subduction zone."

and on November 1, this report noted regard Hurricane Michelle:

" Seismicity may increase along the Central America/Mexico subduction
zone with the Pacific ..."

GLOBAL

Other events of global significance today have been recorded
in Argentina (Mb 4.6); Taiwan (Mb 5.0), south of the Mariana Islands
(Mb 4.8) and in the Santa Cruz Islands area (Mb 4.9).
Because of the weekend and the U.S. holiday on Monday, smaller, less
significant events will probably not be reported until at least Tuesday,
Nov 13.

U.S./CANADA

As reported above, the western U.S. and Canada were at higher
than normal levels of seismicity today. There was also a Ml 3.0
and an associated shock of Ml 2.7 recorded this morning in the
Calexico, California region near the Mexico border. This area became
active on Nov. 7, shortly after the end of the geomagnetic storm
with a minor swarm which continued with today's events. The Calexico
region is commonly active following geomagnetic storms.
Beyond these events, the region of California/Nevada remained
fairly quiet with the only additional events of Ml>=2 observed near the
Geysers, No. California (Ml 2.1 and 2.0).
A Ml 3.6 earthquake was recorded south of Anchorage, Alaska, however,
that region appeared to be relatively quiet otherwise. No events of
Ml>=3 were recorded in Hawaii today.
A Ml 2.6 was recorded near Sevier, Utah this afternoon several hours
after the events in the Pacific northwest and the Oaxaca, Mexico
earthquake. This was the largest event event in Utah since a Ml 2.9
near Hurricane UT on Nov. 5, 2001.
No reports were available from Canada, Montana or the central or
eastern U.S. at this time.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS did not issue any earthquake reports today. The on-line
seismogram also showed only a few light, regional earthquakes over
the past 24 hours.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at extremely quiet conditions
today. There were two M-class solar flare observed with the
following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

2790 + 0042 0050 0058 M1.0
2950 + 1947 2000 2009 M2.3

There was no California seismicity directly associated with this flare,
however LDG did record a Ml 3.2 in Belgium at 00:44 UT. A Mb 4.3
event also occurred in the Santa Cruz Islands (directly sub-solar
at the time of the flare) at 01:05 UT which could have been triggered
by effects from this flare as well.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011110events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

There were no reported tropical storms in the North Atlantic,
Caribbean or east Pacific today.

Typhoon Lingling is currently located east of Vietnam. No associated
seismicity is expected at this time. For advisory see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 11 is twenty-six days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Australia MB>=4.0 39 3.1 0.01
Nevada MB>=2.0 16 2.5 0.03
So Indonesia MB>=4.0 32 2.4 0.04
Turkey MB>=4.0 10 1.9 0.05
Washington MB>=0.0 68 2.3 0.05
NW Europe MB>=4.0 11 2.5 0.04
So. California MB>=3.0 63 2.1 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 09NOV2001 18:26 32.7S 152.2E ML=2.7 AGSO Nelson Bay, NSW, Australia
Note (AGSO): Some felt reports from the area.

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 10Nov2001 01:05:09 10.8S 165.0E MS=4.3 GSR SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

O: 09Nov2001 19:07:54 10.6S 165.9E MB=4.9 NEIS SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 10Nov2001 00:37:14 24.9N 122.8E MB=4.9 NEIS TAIWAN REGION

O: 09Nov2001 20:14:42 11.9N 143.6E MB=4.8 NEIS SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS

O: 08NOV2001 23:29:00 11.3S 114.0E SR=4.8 AEIC1 SW DENPASAR , INDONESIA

O: 08NOV2001 15:43:20 8.4S 117.0E SR=4.8 AEIC1 SUMBAWABESAR , INDONESIA

O: 08NOV2001 11:38:10 2.3S 120.5E SR=4.7 AEIC1 N PALOPO , INDONESIA
O: 08NOV2001 11:38:00 1.4S 120.5E SR=5.5 AEIC1 W POSO , INDONESIA

O: 10nov2001 10:56:28 37.6N 069.6E Ms=3.2 ASC E of Sayat (Tajikistan)
O: 10NOV2001 10:56:28 37.6N 69.6E Ms=3.2 GSSC AFGHANISTAN-TAJIKISTAN

O: 08nov2001 17:43:01 27.6S 065.7E Mb=5.2 ASC Indian Ocean

O: 06nov2001 16:09:16 34.7N 079.5E Ms=4.1 ASC WNW of Changmar, India

O: 06nov2001 14:09:25 27.2N 092.1E Mb=4.9 ASC WNW of Phutang, India

O: 05nov2001 17:12:13 17.1S 065.0E Mb=5.0 ASC Indian Ocean, Mauritius-

O: 03nov2001 15:02:34 19.8N 083.2E ML=3.8 ASC ESE of Bhawanipa, India

O: 02nov2001 22:35:17 36.4N 069.7E Mb=5.1 ASC SSE of Zamch Ab Afghanistan

O: 02nov2001 14:55:43 29.6N 068.9E Mb=4.8 ASC WNW of Triman Pakistan

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 10NOV2001 17:09:09 15.5N 98.5W ML=6.0 SSN COSTA DE OAXACA , MX
O: 10Nov2001 17:09:18 16.2N 98.0W MB=5.2 NEIS NEAR COAST GUERRERO, MEX
O: 10Nov2001 10:49:00 16.1N 98.2W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST GUERRERO, MEX
O: 10Nov2001 10:38:58 16.2N 98.1W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST GUERRERO, MEX

Note: Hurricane Michelle had been expected to impact the seismicity
of this region. This forecast had specifically noted the influence
of a hurricane on this event as well. The magnitude was probably
affected by effects from Hurricane Michelle. This is the largest
earthquake in Mexico since a MB 5.5 (ML 6.1) earthquake about 200 km NW of
this epicenter on October 8, 2001. That event has had a strong
and long series of aftershocks in the Ml 3-4.7 range which is still
continuing at this time. No other events in Mexico have had Ml>=6
The region within 100 km of this epicenter has experienced 36
events of ML>=6 since 1899, about one every three years. The last
such event was a Mb 6.3 on Dec. 16, 1997.

O: 10Nov2001 04:28:40 29.9S 68.8W MB=4.6 NEIS SAN JUAN PROV, ARGENTINA

O: 08NOV2001 19:13:01 24.6S 69.2W ML=4.8 DGF E of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

O: 09NOV2001 15:53:55 14.5N 92.1W ML=4.4 SSN COSTA MEXICO-GUATEMALA , MX

O: 10NOV2001 04:48:54 15.3N 98.5W ML=4.6 SSN COSTA DE OAXACA , MX
O: 10NOV2001 04:38:48 15.0N 98.5W ML=4.6 SSN COSTA DE OAXACA , MX

O: 08NOV2001 18:29:37 16.4N 98.4W ML=4.1 SSN COSTA GUERRERO-OAXACA , MX

EUROPE

O: 10NOV2001 02:23:56 34.9N 32.5E ML>3.0 CYP CYPRUS REGION

O: 10NOV2001 00:44:04 50.9N 5.7E Ml=3.2 LDG BELGIUM

O: 10NOV2001 01:58:08 44.3N 7.4E Ml=3.0 LDG NORTHERN ITALY
O: 10NOV2001 01:58:08 44.3N 7.3E ML=2.9 STR NNE SAINT-SAUVEUR-SUR-TIN
O: 10NOV2001 01:58:07 44.3N 7.3E ML=3.2 UNIG Northern Italy

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 10NOV2001 18:55:32 41.2N 126.4W MB=4.0 NEIS OFF COAST OF N CALIFORNIA

O: 10NOV2001 11:29:38 32.4N 115.3W ML=2.7 SCSN SSE of Calexico, CA
O: 10NOV2001 11:05:35 32.4N 115.4W ML=3.0 SCSN SSE of Calexico, CA

O: 10NOV2001 2:01:08 33.5N 116.5W ML=2.1 SCSN ESE of Anza, CA

O: 10NOV2001 7:24:35 34.9N 116.7W ML=1.5 SCSN E of Barstow, CA

O: 10NOV2001 5:40:16 36.0N 120.5W ML=1.7 SCSN NW of Parkfield, CA

O: 10NOV2001 7:09:09 36.0N 117.9W ML=1.7 NCSN ESE of Coso Junction, CA

O: 10NOV2001 11:47:53 36.4N 121.0W ML=1.8 NCSN SE of Pinnacles, CA

O: 10NOV2001 6:38:13 36.8N 121.4W ML=1.6 NCSN SSW of Hollister, CA

O: 10NOV2001 17:14:29 37.4N 115.0W ML=1.9 NCSN E of Alamo, NV

O: 10NOV2001 17:02:14 37.5N 118.8W ML=1.9 NCSN WSW of Toms Place, CA

O: 10NOV2001 8:36:02 38.8N 122.7W ML=2.1 NCSN ESE of The Geysers, CA

O: 10NOV2001 13:48:51 38.9N 123.2W ML=1.9 NCSN NW of Cloverdale, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 10NOV2001 18:30:59 48.9N 123.0W ML=3.1 PNSN N of Friday Harbor, WA
Note: This is the first event of ML>=3 in Washington state since a Ml 3.0
in the Deming area on October 6, and the largest event in the state since
a Ml 4.3 near Olympia on July 22, 2001.

O: 10NOV2001 20:21:23 47.5N 121.2W ML=2.3 PNSN ENE of Hyak, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 10NOV2001 21:28:36 38.5N 112.5W ML=2.6 UUSN WSW of Sevier, UT
UP:13NOV2001 BBAA 37.5N 112.2W 9P (11-04-01)

ALASKA

O: 10Nov2001 16:26:01 59.5N 152.8W HN=0.0 NEIS SOUTHERN ALASKA
O: 10NOV2001 16:26:03 59.5N 152.9W ML=3.4 AEIC W of Seldovia, Alaska