VERY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN GEOMAGNETIC/SEISMICITY FIELDS

SUMMARY

The quiet conditions in seismicity which began when the
geomagnetic field quieted down two days ago continued today.
Two events of Mb>=5 has been reported - an Mb 5.0 at intermediate
depth (about 393 km) in the Fiji/Tonga Islands and a Mb 5.3
in the Central Chile region north of Valparaiso. The Fiji Islands
were an area (177W) which was under seismic alert from the geomagnetic
storms of November 1 as it was sub-solar at the time of that
storm commencement. The geomagnetic field was at extremely
quiet conditions today as well.

GLOBAL

The most active region today was the are of Central Chile, which
experienced, in addition to the Mb 5.3 north of Valparaiso, a Mb 4.8
about 600 km south of there in the region where the great Chile
earthquakes of May 1960 initiated rupture. This area may be
reaching an active stage after a long period of quiet following
the 1960 events. Earthquakes of Mb>=4.5 have also been reported
in Kamchatka (Mb 4.8); and in the Balearic Islands region
south of Spain in the Mediterranean Sea (Mb 4.9, MEDNET).

U.S./CANADA

The quiet in the aftershock sequence of the Ml 5.1 Anza
quake continued through the day. SCSN shows no events of
Ml>=2 in the aftershock zone for more than 2.5 days. The
subsurface in the area is relatively hot and aftershock
sequences in hot regimes often decay very quickly, but
this does seem anomalous for the Anza region.
The largest earthquake reported in the U.S./Canada region
today was a Ml 4.0 south of the Alaska Peninsula. A second
Ml 3.0 also occurred today in the same general region. No
earthquakes were reported from Hawaii today.
In California/Nevada the largest reported earthquake was
a Ml 3.2 in the Yucca Valley region. This event was preceded by
a Ml 2.2 earlier in the day in the Joshua Tree region and has been
followed by an energetic aftershock sequence. The only other
earthquake of Ml>=2 in southern California occurred at Ocotillo (Ml 2.3).
A mild swarm of microearthquakes was also recorded near Loma Linda.
In Northern California earthquakes of Ml 2.3 occurred in
the Mammoth Lakes region, but the largest reported earthquake was
a Ml 2.5 near Coalinga. A series of events in the Ml 2-2.5
range has been occurring in this area over the past week
and may indicate an increase in areal seismicity over the
next 10-days to a month.
No reports were available from areas east of Nevada, the
Pacific Northwest or Canada today as seismic personnel are
off for the weekend.

NEW ZEALAND

Activity in New Zealand returned to near normal levels
today after nearly a week of heightened activity. IGNS reported
one event near Taranaki, North Island of Ml 3.7.
The on-line seismogram from IGNS is showing about 4 regional
events in the Ml>=3 range today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field was at extremely quiet conditions
today. Also, there were no solar flares of M- or X- class
observed.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011103events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Hurricane Michelle is now a Category 4 hurricane and
is headed straight for Havana, Cuba and the Florida Keys and
Miami. At least 4 deaths have been attributed to Michelle
as it passed over Nicaragua and Honduras at much less intensity
but flooding the areas. Residents of Cuba and southern Florida
are being advised that Michelle could arrive on Sunday or
Monday as a major hurricane.
Possible effects on seismicity of the eastern U.S., California
and the Caribbean region have bee discussed in previous reports.

For a news story on Michelle see:
http://dailynews.netscape.com/mynsnews/story.tmpl?table=n&cat=51180&id=200111031
007000151881
For trackline information see:
http://hurricanes99.com/
Octave in the east Pacific has been downgraded to a tropical
depression and continues on a leisurely pace towards the general
Hawaiian Islands region. No associated seismicity is expected.
For trackline data see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/ep200117.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 4 is nineteen days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Arctic MB>=4.0 30 1.9 0.05
India MB>=4.0 68 2.9 0.02
Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Mammoth lakes MB>=3.0 -18 -2.1 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 2Nov2001 10:17 39.0S 174.7E ML=3.7 IGNS West of Taumarunui, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Felt in northern Taranaki

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 03Nov2001 09:48:09 20.0S 178.0W MB=5.0 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS REGION

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 03Nov2001 01:43:20 36.1S 71.4W MB=4.8 NEIS CENTRAL CHILE

O: 03Nov2001 00:36:40 30.8S 71.4W MB=5.3 NEIS NEAR COAST OF CEN CHILE

O: 03NOV2001 05:45:27 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 03NOV2001 05:36:31 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 03NOV2001 05:24:12 16.7N 100.2W ML=4.1 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 03NOV2001 04:47:51 16.9N 100.1W ML=3.8 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 03NOV2001 04:53:02 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.6 SSN GUERRERO , MX
O: 02NOV2001 09:33:02 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.5 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 02NOV2001 05:03:28 16.8N 100.3W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX

O: 02NOV2001 03:28:19 14.0N 93.6W ML=4.5 SSN GOLFO DE TEHUANTEPEC , MX

O: 02NOV2001 02:22:54 15.7N 93.8W ML=4.3 SSN COSTA DE CHIAPAS , MX

O: 03NOV2001 16:13:00 10.5N 86.2W MC=4.3 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 03NOV2001 15:21:46 13.4S 71.6W MB=3.9 IGP NE of Cuzco, Peru

EUROPE

O: 03NOV2001 00:59:59 35.8N 28.2E ML=3.5 KAN AKDENYZ,TURKEY

O: 02NOV2001 01:14:27 36.0N 29.8E ML=3.9 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE

O: 03NOV2001 14:40:01 46.2N 1.8E Ml=2.5 LDG FRANCE

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 03NOV2001 19:53:56 34.2N 116.4W ML=3.2 SCSN N of Yucca Valley, CA
O: 03NOV2001 19:58:30 34.1N 116.4W ML=1.8 SCSN NNE of Yucca Valley, CA

O: 3NOV2001 3:35:42 37.6N 118.8W ML=2.3 NCSN WNW of Toms Place, CA

O: 03NOV2001 16:37:08 36.2N 120.4W ML=2.5 NCSN N of Coalinga, CA

O: 03NOV2001 16:20:07 38.6N 116.7W ML=2.3 NCSN WSW of Pritchards Station, NV

O: 03NOV2001 14:27:55 34.0N 117.2W ML=1.4 SCSN SSE of Loma Linda, CA
O: 03NOV2001 14:20:28 34.0N 117.2W ML=1.6 SCSN SSE of Loma Linda, CA
O: 03NOV2001 14:15:23 34.0N 117.2W ML=1.5 SCSN SSE of Loma Linda, CA
O: 03NOV2001 14:13:50 34.0N 117.2W ML=1.8 SCSN SSE of Loma Linda, CA

O: 03NOV2001 14:12:35 32.4N 115.8W ML=2.3 SCSN SSE of Ocotillo, CA

O: 03NOV2001 16:04:51 34.5N 116.2W ML=2.2 SCSN N of Joshua Tree, CA

O: 03NOV2001 18:07:54 39.4N 123.3W ML=1.9 NCSN SE of Willits, CA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 03NOV2001 17:21:07 47.8N 114.2W MD=0.2 MBMG MONTANA

ALASKA

O: 03NOV2001 07:48:34 57.9N 156.3W ML=3.5 AEIC SE of Dillingham, Alaska

O: 03NOV2001 11:22:19 56.1N 155.3W ML=4.0 AEIC SSW of Anchorage, Alaska