GLOBAL SEISMICITY QUIETS DOWN, BUT GEOMAGNETIC AND FAR-FIELD TIGGERING CONTINUE

SUMMARY

The strongest events since the last report were earthquakes of
Mb 5.1 in the Rat Islands and of Ms 5.3 in the region off the East
Coast of New Zealand. Both of these events occurred between 179 and 180E
longitude a longitude which was sub-solar at the time of the geomagnetic
storm commencement on November 1 and still under seismic watch at
the time of the seismicity. Both areas were also regions where
Far-field seismicity had been specifically noted as likely following
the New Britain earthquake.

GLOBAL

Other earthquakes recorded since the last report occurred in
the Volcano Islands (Mb 4.2); Iran (Mb 5.3?, 5.0); and in Mindanao
south of the Philippines (Mb 4.6). There is often lull in global
seismicity for several days following large global events. This
is followed by a strong triggering pattern between 3-7 days following
the mainshock.

U.S./CANADA

Seismicity in the U.S. and Canada was also at fairly low levels today.
Only six earthquakes of Ml>=2 were recorded in the California/Nevada
region, none of which were local aftershocks of the Ml 5.2 Anza earthquake.
Aftershocks of the Anza earthquake have been quite small, suggesting
that there may be an asperity preventing further movement on the
fault. If this is so, a larger earthquake may be due within several
years in the region. The most active area was the Coalinga/Avenal area
with events of Ml 2.4, 2.2 and 2.0. Ml 2.3 earthquakes also occurred near the
Pinnacles area of central California and near Lower Lake east of the
Geysers in northern California. Despite the Anza aftershocks, the only
event in southern California of Ml>=2 since 13:49 PST on Nov. 1 has been
an event of Ml 2.1 near Westmoreland.
Seismicity in other areas of the U.S. was also quiet. While two light
earthquakes of Ml>=3 (Ml 3.0 and Ml 3.6) were recorded in Central
Alaska, no earthquakes of Ml>=2 were listed from the Pacific northwest,
Canada, or the U.S. east of California today.
The most unusual earthquakes in the U.S. and Canada today occurred
in south-central Canada - a Ml 1.3 at Red Lake, Canada (north of
International Falls, Minnesota), and a Ml 1.9 in Alberta, north
of Glacier National Park. Both of these earthquakes occurred in
the Central Plains, an area where FFA activity was expected following
the New Britain earthquake as stated in the forecast:

"Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=3 or unusual events)

...Great plains states"

A light earthquake was also reported in the Long Island, New York
area, but has not been located by any network at this time. It was
reported felt by many residents in the area, however, as reported
by local news outlets (e.g. WLNG Hampton Bays radio station).

NEW ZEALAND

Seismicity in the region of New Zealand was moderate to high
again today. Multiple events were recorded on the IGNS seismogram,
but it being the weekend, no reports were available on regional
seismicity from IGNS.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field returned to quiet conditions after the
moderate geomagnetic storm yesterday. One solar flare occurred
with the following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

9890 0742 0809 0845 M1.1

The only associated seismicity were several micro-aftershocks
in the Anza, CA region.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011102events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Hurricane Michelle is located east of the Yucatan today and
is expected to reach major Category 3-4 hurricane status within
the next 24 hours before hitting western Cuba in the region
south of Havana. For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/at200115.public.html

Several earthquakes in the eastern Mexico, El Salvador
and Nicaragua area may have been affected by Michelle and occurred
today. A swarm of three events of Mb 4.5, 4,4 and 4.5 have occurred
on a N-S line in Chiapas, eastern Mexico, paralleling the storm path
in the Caribbean. Current projected path is to hit the Bahamas
on Monday, however after hitting Cuba, the expected path is quite
uncertain and residents of south Florida and the Florida Keys
are being warned regarding the potential that Michelle will hit
that area as a major hurricane. Seismicity is expected to continue
in Chiapas/Guatemala with possible events in Cuba and Jamaica
in the next several days. Because the storm is moving slowly
and increasing normal stress across the northern Caribbean
subduction zone, seismicity in this area is expected to be
low over the next three days. After landfall a moderate to strong
earthquake is possible in either the north or northeastern Caribbean
subduction zone or in the Mexican/Central America subduction zone.
Light to moderate earthquakes are also possible in the eastern U.S.
to Maine and in the Central Mississippi Valley area.
Historically, the hurricane that took the path most similar to Michelle made
landfall in Florida on October 21, 1926. It was followed by the following
series of earthquakes:

October 22 36.6N 122.0W Mw 6.2, 6.1 - South of San Francisco
October 25 42.1N 71.0W Ml 3.0 - Southern New England
October 27 38.0N 87.0W Ml 4.0 - Kentucky
October 27 40.0N 71.0W Ml 3.0 - Long Island, New York
October 27 37.0N 90.4W Ml 4.2 - North of New Madrid MO
October 27 46.0N 71.2W Ml 2.4 - Southern Quebec, Canada
October 28 41.7N 83.5W Ml 3.8 - Ohio
November 1 48.0N 128.0W Ml 6.6, 6.1 Vancouver Island region
November 5 12.0N 86.0W Mw 7.0 Nicaragua
November 5 39.0N 82.0W Ml 4.0 Ohio

This is atypical of most hurricanes which have only one or
two associated regional events, but does give some of the ranges
of possible seismicity which could be induced by Michelle's
landfall (probably on Monday or Tuesday Nov. 5 or 6. Seismicity
can start with landfall or may be delayed as in the above example.

Residents are advised to prepare for a strong storm.
For tracking information see:

http://hurricanes99.com/

Topical Storm Octave is centered in the Pacific Ocean far south of
California and Baja at this time. It is expected to dissipate quickly
into a tropical depression in the next 3 days with no effects on North
America expected at this time.
For tracking information see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/ep200117.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 3 is eighteen days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 58 2.0 0.05
East Africa MB>=4.0 23 3.1 0.01
New Zealand MB>=4.0 19 2.2 0.05
Yellowstone MB>=2.0 19 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Utah MB>=2.0 -19 -2.0 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 01Nov2001 22:43:55 37.1S 179.5E MS=5.3 NEIS OFF E. COAST N. ISL, N.Z.

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 01Nov2001 15:02:05 17.0S 177.2E MB=4.7 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS
O: 01Nov2001 14:54:40 16.9S 177.1E MB=4.9 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 02NOV2001 22:35:23 36.9N 69.7E Ms=4.3 GSSC HINDU KUSH, AFGHANIST

O: 02NOV2001 14:55:43 29.6N 68.9E Ms=4.2 GSSC PAKISTAN

O: 01Nov2001 16:33:40 0.6N 123.5E MB=4.2 NEIS MINAHASSA PEN, SULAWESI

O: 01Nov2001 17:27:33 24.7N 141.5E MB=4.2 NEIS VOLCANO ISL, JAPAN REGION

O: 01Nov2001 19:54:36 27.9N 57.9E MB=5.0 NEIS SOUTHERN IRAN

O: 02NOV2001 22:05:40 27.3N 54.6E M =4.9 GSSC SOUTHERN IRAN
O: 02NOV2001 22:05:29 27.0N 54.6E Mb=5.3 CSEM SOUTHERN IRAN

O: 02NOV2001 22:17:39 6.6N 127.2E Ms=4.4 GSSC PHILIPPINE ISLANDS RE

O: 02Nov2001 10:14:37 44.8N 148.9E MS=4.3 GSR KURIL ISLANDS

O: 02NOV2001 12:07:40 1.8N 99.4E SR=4.8 AEIC1 PADANGSIDEMPUAN, INDONESIA

O: 02NOV2001 04:43:00 8.0S 110.5E SR=5.0 AEIC1 WONOSARI , INDONESIA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 02NOV2001 08:28:19 14.0N 93.6W ML=4.5 SSN GOLFO DE TEHUANTEPEC , MX

O: 02NOV2001 07:22:54 15.7N 93.8W ML=4.3 SSN COSTA DE CHIAPAS , MX
O: 02NOV2001 01:14:54 16.3N 94.9W ML=4.4 SSN ISTMO DE TEHUANTEPEC , MX

O: 02NOV2001 10:03:28 16.8N 100.3W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 01NOV2001 18:48:04 17.0N 100.1W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX

O: 02NOV2001 14:28:53 13.2N 89.5W MC=4.5 SIS GUATEMALA, C.A.
NOTE: Hurricane Michelle was near this location at the time of
this earthquake and may have help promote it's occurrence.

O: 02NOV2001 02:46:27 9.9N 86.8W MC=4.1 CASC C.A.

O: 02NOV2001 10:02:47 8.9N 84.0W MC=3.8 CASC C.A.

CARIBBEAN

O: 31OCT2001 12:55:24 19.9N 64.8W ML=3.5 PRSN Puerto Rico Trench
O: 31OCT2001 02:56: 5 19.6N 64.6W ML=3.9 PRSN Puerto Rico Trench
O: 31OCT2001 02:36:11 18.9N 65.2W ML=3.8 PRSN North of Puerto Rico

O: 31OCT2001 09:34:32 18.0N 68.7W ML=3.5 PRSN Eastern Dominican Rep

O: 02NOV2001 12:09:30 13.6S 76.2W MB=4.4 IGP N of Pisco, Peru

EUROPE

O: 02NOV2001 05:07:21 37.0N 35.6E ML=3.5 KAN CEYHAN (ADANA),TURKEY

O: 02NOV2001 16:46:55 38.4N 36.9E ML=3.6 KAN KAHRAMANMARA,TURKEY
O: 02NOV2001 16:46:14 38.3N 37.0E ML=3.0 KAN KAHRAMANMARA,TURKEY

O: 02Nov2001 09:14:29 36.1N 21.8E MS=3.6 GSR SOUTHERN GREECE

O: 31OCT2001 06:05:54 35.4N 24.7E ML=3.5 NOA GREECE

O: 02NOV2001 01:14:27 36.0N 29.8E ML=3.9 NOA GREECE

O: 02NOV2001 4:25:13 53.1N 3.3W ML=1.3 BGS RUTHIN, CLWYD, ENGLAND
O: 01NOV2001 1:56:11 51.1N 4.6W ML=1.1 BGS OFF HARTLAND PT, ENGLAND

O: 29OCT2001 21:25:23 49.3N 7.0E ML=3.4 BGR LEBACH, GERMANY

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 02NOV2001 8:44:18 38.3N 122.4W ML=1.9 NCSN ENE of Sonoma, CA

O: 02NOV2001 15:58:24 34.9N 116.8W ML=1.8 SCSN E of Barstow, CA

O: 02NOV2001 14:44:20 36.0N 120.2W ML=2.2 NCSN NW of Avenal, CA
O: 02NOV2001 10:18:28 36.4N 120.4W ML=2.4 NCSN N of Coalinga, CA
O: 02NOV2001 10:34:54 36.4N 120.4W ML=2.0 NCSN E of New Idria, CA

O: 02NOV2001 10:27:37 38.9N 122.5W ML=2.3 NCSN ESE of Lower Lake, CA

O: 02NOV2001 20:04:17 36.5N 121.1W ML=2.3 NCSN NNE of Pinnacles, CA

O: 02NOV2001 19:00:44 39.5N 119.6W ML=1.8 NCSN ESE of Sparks, NV

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 02NOV2001 15:45:47 48.0N 121.9W ML=1.9 PNSN N of Monroe, WA
O: 02NOV2001 15:45:47 47.9N 122.0W ML=1.7 PGC NE Seattle WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 02NOV2001 08:04:29 43.4N 111.1W ML=2.0 USBR NE of Palisades Dam, ID

O: 01NOV2001 11:14:09 44.8N 110.8W ML=1.2 UUSN WNW of Norris Junc., WY

O: 31OCT2001 1:55:07 38.2N 112.5W ML=1.5 UUSN SE of Beaver, UT

O: 01NOV2001 19:58:28 47.9N 114.2W ML=1.3 MBMG near Rollins, MT

O: 02NOV2001 22:06:50 49.4N 114.7W MD=1.9 MBMG NO OF MONTANA

ALASKA

O: 02Nov2001 14:30:03 51.8N 179.1E MB=5.1 NEIS RAT ISL, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
O: 02Nov2001 14:30:04 51.7N 179.0E MS=4.4 GSR RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLA
Note: This may be a FFA from the New Britain earthquake as it lies
in an area and near a distance (62 degrees) identified in the far-field
forecast. The FFA forecast had noted:

"Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=4.0)

Central Andreanoff Islands"

and

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

...Central Aleutians"

and

"59-61 degrees: ... Central Aleutians"

This area was under seismic watch from a geomagnetic storm
at the time of the event. Yesterday's report had stated:

" A moderate geomagnetic storm began about 00:00 UT this morning and
lasted throughout most of the day. The commencement at this time
would put areas within 20 degrees longitude of 180E and 0W in a
minor seismic watch for the next 24 hours. These regions include
western Europe, the CENTRAL ALEUTIANS and the Tonga/Kermadec/New
Zealand region."

O: 02Nov2001 13:02:13 62.4N 151.8W ML=3.4 NEIS CENTRAL ALASKA
O: 02NOV2001 13:02:14 62.4N 151.8W ML=3.4 AEIC W of Talkeetna, Alaska

O: 02Nov2001 11:15:59 60.4N 152.7W ML>3.0 NEIS SOUTHERN ALASKA
O: 02NOV2001 11:16:03 60.4N 152.7W ML=3.0 AEIC NW of Homer, Alaska