SEISMIC RATES HIGH IN VOLCANIC/PLUTONIC/HYDROTHERMAL AREAS - MORE EXPECTED

SUMMARY

The geomagnetic storm of three days ago appears to have begun
to enhance seismicity in volcanic and hydrothermic areas today.
This was especially noticable in the northern California and
Nevada region where 5 events of Ml>=3 occurred in such tectonic
regions.
Geomagnetic storms also tend to increase seismicity along
mid-ocean ridge systems within 4-5 days, and that too, appears to be
happening today. Earthquakes were reported in the Labrador Sea
of Ml 3.8 and in the Gulf of California (Mb 5.4) since the last
issue of this report. These are areas where subsurface ohmic heating
could lead to increased activity. If the trend continues look for
more mid-ocean ridge activity over the next three days.

GLOBAL

The largest earthquake of the day was a Mb 5.7 in the Ryukyu
Islands region. This event was expected as a Far-Field aftershock
(FFA) from the Banda Sea. Other earthquakes of Mb>=5 occurred in the
Gulf of California (Mb 5.4); in the area south of Sumatera (MB 5.0);
in southwestern Turkey (Ml 5.6); and in the Aegean Sea (Mb 5.0).
Global seismicity should begin to increase this evening reaching
a high level with possible events in the Ms>=6 magnitude range
in the next three days.

U.S./CANADA

Seismicity moved northward from southern California to northern
California and Nevada today. Today's delayed activity in the
north may be due to the mechanism of triggering from geomagnetic
storms in plutonic and hydrothermal areas. There were six earthquakes
of Ml>=3 in the region since the last report. Of these, five
occurred in areas where seismicity is often associated with plutonism
or with hydrothermal activity. If ohmic heating from induced currents
is partly responsible for some of this activity, then the 2-3 day
delay is appropriate as it takes several days for strong currents
to form in the ionosphere following major geomagnetic storms. Today's
earthquakes occurred in the Coso Junction (Trona) region (Ml 3.0);
Lovelock and Kings Beach NV (Ml 3.0, 3.0) and a minor swarm near
the Geysers including events of Ml 3.0 and 3.1. A Ml 3.3 also occurred
in the Lander/Big Bear aftershock region of southern California.
Events of Ml>=2 formed minor swarms in the Ocotillo area south of
California/Mexico border (Ml 2.5, 2.4, 2.3) and off the coast of
Northern California (Ml 2.5) since last report.
This sudden increase in activity followed the Mb 5.4 in the
Gulf of California earlier this morning and was possibly related
to movements induced from that earthquake. Events in the Gulf
of California often are followed by a modest increase in seismicity
in the California/Nevada region.
The first event in more than 2 weeks and the largest in more than
a month in the New Madrid region of Missouri occurred yesterday with
Ml 2.0. New Madrid was within the seismic watch region following the
last geomagnetic storm. Another event which was in the watch area
was a Ml 3.8 in the Labrador Sea/Davis Strait region off SE Canada.
This is an unusual event, but such events often occur in conjunction
with strong geomagnetic storms.
A Ml 3.3, one of the largest this month, occurred in Hawaii, but
for the first day in a week Alaska saw no events of Ml>=4 since the
last report.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS did not issue any earthquake notices today. The on-line
seismometer, however continued to show light and moderate events
in the region throughout the day.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at quiet conditions today. There
were no M- or X- class solar flare recorded on the sun today.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011030events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Tropical Depression fifteen continued to hover over Nicaragua
today and is tracking slowly northward towards Cuba and the
Gulf of Mexico. TD 15 is producing wide-spread flooding
in Honduras and Nicaragua and may intensify as it moves into
the NW Caribbean. All interests in the area are advised to
watch this storm carefully.

For tracking information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200115.html

Tropical Storm Lorenzo took a sudden turn to the north overnight
and continues to track in the north Atlantic posing no immediate threat to
land at this time. For tracking information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200114.html

Tropical Cyclone Alex-Andre is south of India and has reversed
course since yesterday nor moving ENE. It is expected to begin
to track SW again and to pose no threat to land at this time.

For public advisory see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/sp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 31 is fifteen days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NE Europe MB>=4.0 11 2.5 0.04
Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 26 2.6 0.03
Japan MB>=4.0 16 2.4 0.04
Spain MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions
EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

OCEANIA

O: 30OCT2001 03:24:29 24.1N 109.0W MB=5.4 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA

ASIA

O: 30OCT2001 21:04:13 28.6N 128.2E MB=5.7 NEIS RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
O: 30OCT2001 21:04 28.5N 128.3E Mj=5.4 NIED RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Note: This may be a FFA from the Banda Sea earthquake of 19 October.
That FFA forecast had stated:

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

....Ryukyu Islands (could be large)"

and
34-36 degrees: Kyushu, Myanmar, Solomon Isl (159-161E)

This earthquake occurred near 34 degrees from both Kamchatka and
Banda Sea.

O: 30OCT2001 23:04:15 24.3N 122.3E ML=5.3 CWB Ilan, Taiwan

O: 29OCT2001 18:04:04 5.0S 101.8E MB=5.0 NEIS SW OF SUMATERA, INDONESIA

O: 29Oct2001 23:46:06 52.3N 160.5E MS=3.7 GSR OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATK

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 30OCT2001 06:14:18 12.8N 89.2W MC=3.9 SIS GUATEMALA, C.A.

O: 30OCT2001 00:02:24 19.2S 69.2W ML>4.0 DGF ENS of PISAGUA, CHILE
O: 30OCT2001 10:32:41 19.6S 69.2W ML>4.0 DGF S of CHIAPA, CHILE

EUROPE

O: 30OCT2001 23:00:07 35.7N 29.7E ML=5.6 KAN AKDENYZ,TURKEY

O: 29OCT2001 20:21:48 38.8N 24.4E MB=5.0 NEIS AEGEAN SEA
O: 29OCT2000 20:21:49 38.9N 24.4E ML=4.8 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 29OCT2000 20:34:25 38.9N 24.3E ML=3.7 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE

O: 30OCT2000 02:24: 2 35.9N 23.9E ML=3.5 NOA CRETE, GREECE

O: 30OCT2001 03:53:37 63.6N 19.3W ML=2.1 ISO Iceland
O: 30OCT2001 03:53:43 63.6N 19.4W ML=3.0 ISO Iceland
O: 30OCT2001 03:53:44 63.6N 19.4W ML=2.5 ISO Iceland

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 30OCT2001 03:24:29 24.1N 109.0W MB=5.4 NEIS GULF OF CALIFORNIA

O: 30OCT2001 19:38:34 38.7N 122.7W MB=3.1 NEIS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 30OCT2001 21:07:43 38.8N 122.7W MB=3.0 NEIS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 30OCT2001 19:38:34 38.8N 122.7W ML=3.1 NCSN ESE of The Geysers, CA
O: 30OCT2001 23:03:57 38.8N 122.7W ML=1.9 NCSN E of The Geysers, CA
O: 30OCT2001 15:35:50 38.8N 122.8W ML=1.8 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA
O: 30OCT2001 21:40:25 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.0 NCSN NE of The Geysers, CA
O: 30OCT2001 21:07:43 38.8N 122.8W ML=3.0 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA
O: 30OCT2001 21:09:22 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.2 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA
O: 30OCT2001 21:11:26 38.9N 122.8W ML=1.5 NCSN N of The Geysers, CA

O: 30OCT2001 4:43:18 39.3N 120.0W ML=3.0 NCSN NNE of Kings Beach, CA

O: 30OCT2001 5:10:56 39.5N 123.3W ML=2.0 NCSN NE of Willits, CA

O: 30OCT2001 21:16:17 40.3N 118.8W ML=3.0 NCSN WNW of Lovelock, NV

O: 30OCT2001 9:58:25 40.2N 124.3W ML=2.5 NCSN SE of Punta Gorda, CA

O: 30OCT2001 12:58:32 34.3N 116.4W MB=3.4 NEIS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 30OCT2001 12:58:32 34.4N 116.5W ML=3.3 NEIS N of Yucca Valley, CA
O: 30OCT2001 12:58:32 34.3N 116.4W ML=3.3 SCSN N of Yucca Valley, CA

O: 30OCT2001 16:25:17 32.8N 115.8W ML=2.2 SCSN NE of Ocotillo, CA
O: 30OCT2001 13:58:32 32.6N 116.1W ML=2.2 SCSN SW of Ocotillo, CA
O: 30OCT2001 9:31:52 33.1N 115.9W ML=1.8 SCSN ESE of Ocotillo Wells, CA
O: 30OCT2001 19:34:06 33.2N 115.6W ML=2.3 SCSN N of Obsidian Butte, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 29OCT2001 08:32:19 60.1N 137.9W ML=2.0 PGC SSW Haines Jct. YT

O: 28OCT2001 09:26:59 47.6N 122.0W ML=1.7 PGC ENE Seattle WA

O: 30OCT2001 15:05:03 47.7N 122.6W ML=1.3 PNSN SE of Poulsbo, WA

O: 29OCT2001 18:22:22 48.8N 122.2W ML=1.0 PNSN WNW of Deming, WA

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 29OCT2001 09:35:07 46.0N 75.2W MN=1.7 GSC N from BUCKINGHAM, QUE.

O: 30OCT2001 0:56:07 36.2N 89.5W ML=2.0 CERI SSE of Ridgely
Note: This is the first earthquake in the New Madrid MO region
in more than 2 weeks (Oct 14, Ml 1.8) and the largest since Sept. 23 (Ml 2.0)

O: 27OCT2001 07:14:11 60.6N 59.4W ML=3.8 GSC LABRADOR SEA SEISMIC ZONE.

HAWAII

O: 30OCT2001 15:00:36 19.4N 154.8W ML=3.3 HVO SE of `Opihikao, Hawaii