SEISMICITY RATE QUIETS WITH REDUCED GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY

SUMMARY

Both the seismicity of the earth and the geomagnetic indices
significantly lowered today after two days of strong geomagnetic
activity and associated unusual and moderate earthquakes. These
conditions are expected to continue for at most two more days
before delayed triggered earthquakes from the latest geomagnetic
storm develop.

GLOBAL

The largest earthquake today occurred this evening, but has
not yet been located by teleseismic agencies. S-waves were registered
at Tucson at about 03:28 UT and in Longmire WA at about 03:30 UT
at Bozeman MT at 3:26.9 UT; at Limekiln MT at 3:29.5 UT and in southern
Utah about 3:27.8; at the northeast stations about 3:26.5 and in the
New Mexico region about 3:27. This suggests an origin SE of the
U.S., perhaps in the Caribbean region since TD fifteen is in that
region tonight. Unfortunately, on-line seismograms in many areas
have been down off and on for the past two days. The USGS on-line
set if off line as has been the Appalachian seismograms and most
of Utah throughout the day, so it is difficult to get good
locations from on-line seismographs today and we must rely
on the slower teleseismic determinations.
The most active region of the world today was the Andreanoff Islands
with 6 earthquakes of Mb 5.4, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2 and 5.4. This area had
been expected to see activity at this time. An alert had been issued
at the time of the commencement of the geomagnetic storm yesterday for
this area which said:

" While these area are the most likely to see strong events,
other areas in the sub-solar hemisphere could see seismic
enhancements over the next two days. Included are regions
such as the CENTRAL ALEUTIANS and New Zealand where moderate
seismicity increases may occur immediately."

Earthquakes of Mb 4.9 and 5.2 also occurred today in the Guerrero
Mexico and Molucca Sea regions respectively.

U.S./CANADA

The largest listed earthquakes of the day occurred in this region in
the Andreanoff Islands (Mb 5.4, Mb 5.4) at two separate epicenters.
A Mb 4.7 was also recorded this evening in the SE Gulf of Alaska. This
is a fairly significant event for this region.
Hawaii also saw a Ml 3.1 today, however this is likely to be
downgraded in the next several days. HVO usually reports preliminary
event magnitudes much higher than final determinations.
The only earthquake of Ml>=3 since the last report appears
to have occurred off the coast of Oregon, however this is still
preliminary. PNSN gives this event Ml 1.9, however it is far
off the coast so is probably closer to Mb 3.0-3.5.
Event magnitudes quieted quickly in the California/Nevada
region after yesterday's swarm-like activity. Unlike yesterday,
today, the northern and Central California region was most active.
Earthquakes of Ml>=2 were recorded near Covelo (Ml 2.0); Willits (Ml 2.0);
Pacifica (Ml 2.4); Kings Beach (Ml 2.3) Tonopah Junction, NV NE of
Mammoth Lakes (Ml 2.6) and New Idria, NW of Parkfield (Ml 2.5) and
at Coso Junction (Ml 2.0) in Central and northern California today.
Two aftershocks of yesterday's Ml 3.7 near Compton CA were
reported from southern California along with a Ml 2.0 from the
Salton Sea area.
This evening, MBMG is listing a Ml 2.7 with preliminary location
in northern Idaho, but this needs to be verified. Utah, the NW
U.S. and the eastern U.S. or Canada did not report any earthquakes
of Ml>=2 since last report.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS did not issue any earthquake bulletins today, but the on-line
seismograph did show a number of light to medium sized regional
earthquakes throughout the past 24 hours.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field was at relatively quiet conditions today
with two minor stormy periods, not sufficient for any seismic
watches to be issued. There were five M-class flares observed
on the sun with the following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

8440 + 0152 0159 0207 M1.3
8500 + 0807 0814 0817 M1.0
8550 + 1056 1113 1119 M3.6
8560 + 1130 1133 1137 M1.6
8760 + 2345 2358 0008 M1.5

Minor earthquakes in California/Nevada occurred in association with
flare #8760 (Henderson NV Ml 1.2; 23:45); and flare #8500 (Coso Junction
Ml 1.5; 08:23). These flares were not large enough to have significant
associated seismicity expected.
For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20010831events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Tropical Depression fifteen formed off the east coast of Nicaragua
today and is tracking northward towards Cuba. At the moment it
is not expected to reach hurricane levels. An earthquake in the
Oaxaca region also occurred today, but is probably unrelated to
this storm. For tracking information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200115.html

Tropical Depression fourteen intensified and became tropical
storm Lorenzo today. Lorenzo continues to track in the north
Atlantic and poses no threat to land at this time. For tracking
information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200114.html

Tropical Cyclone Alex-Andre is south of India and moving WSW.
It poses no threat to land at this time. A Mb 4.8 was registered
south of Sumatera today, and may be related to this cyclone's low
pressure system. For public advisory see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/sp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 30 is fourteen days after the beginning the lunar month
(a full moon). Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04
Spain MB>=4.0 38 2.7 0.02

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 -54 -2.1 0.05
China MB>=4.0 -18 -2.1 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 26Oct2001 23:05:51 18.6S 168.1E MS=6.1 NEIS VANUATU ISLANDS

AUSTRALIA

O: 27Oct2001 07:58:46 35.3S 144.2E MB=4.3 NEIS NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA

ASIA

O: 29Oct2001 02:52:17 1.6N 126.5E MB=5.2 NEIS NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

O: 28Oct2001 22:31:09 5.2S 102.4E MB=4.5 NEIS S SUMATERA, INDONESIA

O: 28Oct2001 21:49:32 5.4N 126.6E MB=4.9 NEIS MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

O: 27Oct2001 19:30:26 36.1N 70.5E MB=5.1 NEIS HINDU KUSH, AFGHANISTAN

O: 27Oct2001 05:35:39 26.3N 100.7E MS=5.5 NEIS YUNNAN, CHINA

O: 28OCT2001 03:24 36.4N 141.1E Mj=4.3 NIED E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 28OCT2001 01:09 37.2N 137.8E Mj=4.0 NIED OFF_S_NIIGATA_PREF, JAPAN

O: 26OCT2001 01:18 25.7N 126.3E Mj=4.6 NIED NEAR_OKINAWAJIMA_ISLAND, JAPAN

O: 25OCT2001 22:32 36.6N 141.3E Mj=3.6 NIED E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 25OCT2001 07:42 34.5N 141.9E Mj=3.6 NIED FAR_SE_OFF_BOSO_PEN, JAPAN
O: 24OCT2001 18:51 36.4N 141.0E Mj=3.6 NIED E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF, JAPAN
O: 23OCT2001 20:04 36.8N 141.3E Mj=3.7 NIED E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 22OCT2001 13:17 33.8N 139.3E Mj=4.5 NIED NEAR_MIYAKEJIMA_ISLAND, JAPAN

O: 22OCT2001 07:10 34.5N 141.9E Mj=3.6 NIED FAR_SE_OFF_BOSO_PEN, JAPAN

O: 21OCT2001 18:37 29.8N 129.7E Mj=4.0 NIED NEAR_TOKARA_ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 21OCT2001 18:20 35.9N 138.1E Mj=3.6 NIED AKAISHI_MOUNTAINS_REG, JAPAN

O: 21OCT2001 14:15 26.4N 128.9E Mj=3.5 NIED NEAR_OKINAWAJIMA_ISLAND, JAPAN

O: 20OCT2001 23:57 39.2N 142.2E Mj=4.3 NIED E_OFF_IWATE_PREF, JAPAN

O: 29OCT2001 09:27:40 8.3S 117.2E SR=4.8 AEIC1 SUMBAWABESAR , INDONESIA

O: 29OCT2001 08:14:30 8.7S 113.4E SR=4.7 AEIC1 S LUMAJANG , INDONESIA

O: 29OCT2001 03:30:10 3.2N 97.0E SR=4.8 AEIC1 W TAPAKTUAN , INDONESIA

O: 29OCT2001 02:52:50 2.1N 122.6E SR=6.0 AEIC1 N GORONTALO , INDONESIA

O: 28OCT2001 21:49:30 5.5N 127.8E SR=4.7 AEIC1 NE BITUNG , INDONESIA

O: 28OCT2001 10:56:30 10.5S 113.7E SR=5.5 AEIC1 S JEMBER , INDONESIA

O: 28OCT2001 10:24:20 8.3S 114.9E SR=4.8 AEIC1 E NEGARA , INDONESIA
O: 28OCT2001 03:38:40 9.5S 114.2E SR=5.2 AEIC1 S NEGARA , INDONESIA

MIDDLE EAST

O: 29OCT2001 04:53:55 29.3N 34.9E ML=3.3 ISR Elat Deep

O: 26OCT2001 20:28:05 35.0N 32.6E ML=3.1 ISR Cyprus

O: 25OCT2001 17:11:54 28.4N 34.7E ML=3.0 ISR Arnona Dakar

O: 24OCT2001 05:13:14 27.8N 33.3E ML=3.0 ISR Suez

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 29Oct2001 05:23:14 17.3N 99.9W MB=4.9 NEIS GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 28OCT2001 23:17:07 12.9N 89.0W MC=3.6 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 28OCT2001 13:08:05 10.3N 69.7W Mc=3.8 ULA Torres, Lara, Venezuela

EUROPE

O: 28Oct2001 16:25:25 52.8N 0.9W ML=4.1 NEIS UNITED KINGDOM
O: 28OCT2001 16:25:25 52.8N 0.9W ML=4.1 BGS MELTON, ENGLAND
Note:This may be a FFA from the Banda Sea earthquake of Oct 19. The
FFA forecast had stated:

"Unusual events may occur in

France/Benelux Countries"

O: 30OCT2001 03:12:30 38.8N 27.1E ML=3.0 KAN IZMIR,TURKEY

O: 28OCT2001 09:07:32 36.7N 21.7E ML=3.6 NOA GREECE
O: 29OCT2001 01:02:55 36.8N 22.2E ML=3.2 NOA GREECE

O: 29OCT2001 03:02:59 40.4N 23.6E ML=2.8 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 29OCT2001 03:08: 6 40.5N 23.5E ML=3.3 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 29OCT2001 04:19: 2 40.5N 23.5E ML=3.0 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE

O: 29OCT2001 21:25:22 49.5N 7.0E Ml=3.6 MIX GERMANY

O: 29OCT2001 20:21:42 39.1N 24.8E Mb=4.7 MIX AEGEAN SEA

O: 29OCT2001 10:04:49 39.1N 49.0E Ms=3.0 GSSA CASPIAN SEA
O: 29OCT2001 22:15:46 43.5N 49.0E Ms=3.5 GSSA CASPIAN SEA

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 29OCT2001 21:10:56 39.5N 123.3W ML=2.0 NCSN NE of Willits, CA

O: 29OCT2001 21:07:39 37.6N 122.5W ML=2.4 NCSN SE of Pacifica, CA
O: 29OCT2001 22:07:39 37.5N 122.4W Md=2.4 NCSN SSE of Pacifica, CA

O: 30OCT2001 04:43:19 39.2N 120.0W Ml=3.0 NCSN ESE of Truckee, CA

O: 30OCT2001 4:43:19 39.2N 120.0W ML=2.3 NCSN NNW of Kings Beach, CA

O: 30OCT2001 4:18:12 37.4N 121.3W ML=1.6 NCSN WSW of Patterson, CA

O: 29OCT2001 8:40:49 33.2N 116.0W ML=2.0 SCSN WSW of Salton City, CA

O: 29OCT2001 5:49:40 33.9N 116.9W ML=1.7 SCSN S of Banning, CA
O: 29OCT2001 6:01:01 33.9N 116.9W ML=1.1 SCSN S of Banning, CA

O: 28OCT2001 22:34:48 33.5N 118.2W ML=2.1 SCSN SSE of Pt. Fermin, CA
O: 29OCT2001 19:04:14 33.7N 118.1W ML=2.0 SCSN WSW of Bolsa Chica Beach, CA
O: 28OCT2001 22:09:24 33.9N 118.2W ML=1.4 SCSN SSE of Compton, CA
O: 28OCT2001 21:16:31 33.9N 118.3W ML=1.9 SCSN E of Hawthorne, CA
O: 29OCT2001 2:17:58 33.9N 118.2W ML=1.3 SCSN NNW of Compton, CA
O: 29OCT2001 1:12:26 33.9N 118.3W ML=2.2 SCSN E of Hawthorne, CA
O: 29OCT2001 7:08:36 33.9N 118.3W ML=1.8 SCSN E of Hawthorne, CA
O: 28OCT2001 22:23:37 33.9N 118.3W ML=1.9 SCSN SE of Inglewood, CA
O: 29OCT2001 18:15:29 33.9N 118.1W ML=1.6 SCSN NNW of Downey, CA
O: 29OCT2001 2:58:16 33.9N 118.3W ML=1.7 SCSN ESE of Inglewood, CA
O: 28OCT2001 24:25:40 34.0N 118.3W ML=1.5 SCSN NNE of Inglewood, CA

O: 29OCT2001 7:30:34 34.0N 117.5W ML=1.6 SCSN WNW of Riverside, CA

O: 29OCT2001 12:37:07 34.4N 118.6W ML=1.4 SCSN WNW of Valencia, CA

O: 29OCT2001 00:05:48 35.9N 117.6W ML=2.9 SCSN NW of Trona, CA
O: 29OCT2001 21:00:17 36.0N 117.9W ML=2.0 NCSN ESE of Coso Junction, CA

O: 30OCT2001 2:33:18 36.5N 120.6W ML=2.5 NCSN NNE of New Idria, CA

O: 30OCT2001 3:28:04 37.8N 118.1W ML=2.6 NCSN S of Tonopah Junction, NV

O: 29OCT2001 2:44:02 39.8N 123.2W ML=2.0 NCSN ENE of Covelo, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 28OCT2001 15:44:33 43.0N 128.8W MB>3.0 PNSN OFF OREGON COAST (ML 1.9 PNSN)

O: 26OCT2001 20:23:49 48.9N 129.1W ML=3.1 PGC SSW Pt. Hardy BC

O: 29OCT2001 3:28:32 47.8N 121.9W ML=1.2 PNSN ENE of Duvall, WA
O: 28OCT2001 2:34:50 47.8N 122.0W ML=1.1 PNSN NNW of Duvall, WA
O: 28OCT2001 9:26:59 47.7N 121.9W ML=2.3 PNSN NNW of Carnation, Wa

O: 27OCT2001 23:49:43 47.0N 122.0W ML=1.7 PNSN S of Enumclaw, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 26OCT2001 2:24:35 39.5N 110.9W ML=1.7 UUSN SW of Price, UT

O: 28OCT2001 11:54:18 44.4N 111.0W ML=1.8 UUSN W of Old Faithful, WY
O: 28OCT2001 12:54:15 44.6N 110.7W ML=2.1 UUSN S of Norris Junc., WY
O: 28OCT2001 5:44:33 44.7N 110.9W ML=1.5 UUSN NNW of Madison Junc., WY
O: 27OCT2001 22:39:26 44.8N 110.8W ML=1.5 UUSN WNW of Norris Junc., WY
O: 27OCT2001 22:11:16 44.8N 110.8W ML=1.5 UUSN WNW of Norris Junc., WY

O: 29OCT2001 17:49:01 46.7N 115.8W MD=2.7 MBMG NORTHERN IDAHO

O: 29OCT2001 10:10:18 47.2N 113.3W MD=0.6 MBMG MONTANA

O: 28OCT2001 19:35:02 46.3N 112.1W MD=1.1 MBMG MONTANA

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 26OCT2001 21:33:58 48.4N 71.3W MN=2.4 GSC SE from ALMA, QUE.
O: 26OCT2001 12:57:41 47.4N 70.1W MN=2.5 GSC S from LA MALBAIE, QUE.
O: 26OCT2001 05:08:30 47.4N 70.2W MN=2.3 GSC SE from BAIE-SAINT-PAUL, QUE.
O: 25OCT2001 08:11:59 47.3N 70.2W MN=2.3 GSC CHARLEVOIX SEISMIC ZONE, QUE.

ALASKA

O: 30OCT2001 03:42:42 57.9N 142.7W ML=4.7 AEIC SSE of Valdez, Alaska

O: 29Oct2001 17:41:48 51.3N 178.5W MB=5.4 NEIS ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
O: 29OCT2001 17:41:51 51.4N 178.3W ML=5.4 AEIC WSW of Adak, Alaska

O: 28Oct2001 22:16:30 51.3N 174.8W MB=4.2 NEIS ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
O: 28Oct2001 19:17:00 51.5N 174.9W MB=4.3 NEIS ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
O: 28Oct2001 18:12:31 51.3N 174.9W MB=4.3 NEIS ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
O: 28Oct2001 17:58:27 51.6N 175.0W MB=5.4 NEIS ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
O: 28OCT2001 17:58:31 51.4N 175.1W ML=5.1 AEIC ESE of Adak, Alaska

O: 28Oct2001 12:30:42 54.7N 152.7W MB=3.8 NEIS SOUTH OF ALASKA

HAWAII

O: 29OCT2001 18:42:28 19.7N 155.1W ML=3.1 HVO SW of Hilo, Hawaii