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Don's Mammoth Lakes forecast and tonight's minor swarm
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Posted by Lowell on October 24, 2001 at 18:06:53:
Don, Looks like your expected Mammoth Lakes activity may be starting a day early. Or as Canie pointed out this may just the Mammoth Lakes increase that is usually associated with a CME and yours is yet to come. SCSN is reporting the following events in the area this evening: ML 2.1 2001/10/24 15:32:52 37.439N 118.854W 6.5 21 km (13 mi) SW of Toms Place, CA ML 2.9 2001/10/24 15:32:18 37.437N 118.852W 7.5 21 km (13 mi) SW of Toms Place, CA ML 2.3 2001/10/24 15:11:27 37.438N 118.852W 7.7 20 km (13 mi) SW of Toms Place, CA For those of you who do not have Mammoth Lakes activity memorized, the Ml 2.9 is the largest event in that region since October 2. A minor swarm occurred in the region between Sept 29 and Oct. 2 with events of Ml 3.0, 3.1 and 3.0. Only two earthquakes of Ml>=2.9 occurred in the region this summer - of Ml 3.1 on Sept. 13 and 2.9 on July 15, so today's earthquake had about 1 chance in 30 of occurring on a particular day or 1 chance in 6 of occurring during a given 6-day period. There have been 24 six-day periods since Jun 1, 2001 of which 4 have contained an event of Ml>=2.9 in this region. The geomagnetic storm may have brought these forward in time, but no grade will be given until the forecast window is finished. But, IMHO, a good call, Don.
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