FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCK FORECAST FOR MOLUCCA/BANDA SEA MW 7.4 (PRELIMINARY)
(OCTOBER 19, 2001)

A strong Mw 7.4 earthquake occurred in the northern Banda Sea/
Southern Molucca Sea this morning shortly after the first
X-Flare on the sun in nearly a month. Triggered far-field
activity may have already occurred in Angola (mb 5.2) and Myanmar (Ms 5.2).
and Kamchatka (Mb 5.1).
The earthquake may have been triggered by an X-Class solar flare which
was in progress at this time of the event. This was the first X-flare since
September 24 when an X-2.4 flare occurred. SEC expects a CME
to arrive in the earth's vicinity in several days. This may
precipitate a strong geomagnetic storm and additional seismic
activity.
The maximum output of this flare activity was between 1:00 and 3:00 UT
(including several following M-class flares). The areas which were
sub-solar at the time of this activity were between 60W and
30E and anti-solar areas are 120E to 150W. The Banda Sea earthquake
is near the geomagnetic equator and within the anti-solar regions.

This general area was expected to be a primary zone for far-field
triggering from the Kamchatka earthquakes as stated in the far-field
report:

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

....Molucca Sea/Halmahera"

The epicenter of this event is at the edge of the Molucca Sea
just south of Halmahera.

Halmahera was also an area where triggering from Guam was
expected.

Following are the parameters of this Mw 7.5 earthquake in Indonesia
(NEIS):

01/10/19 03:28:40 4.09S 123.89E 10.0 7.5M A BANDA SEA

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

and the parameters of the group of solar flares which preceded it

FLARE # START MAX END MAX OUT CLASS
4380 + 0056 0124 0237 32000 X1.6
4460 0220 0232 0246 M1.2
4430 0252 0258 0303 M1.4
4470 0314 0316 0318 M1.0
Source:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011019events.txt

SEISMIC HISTORY OF AREA:

NO earthquakes of Mw>=7 have ever been recorded within 200 km
of today's epicenter, so this is truly a rare event in the region.
Six have occurred within 300 km, including two which was larger than
todays - in 1998 (Mw 8.3) and in 1965 (Ms 7.7), both of which ruptured
areas considerably northeast today's event. The event in 1998
occurred on Nov. 29 and killed at least 34, injured more than 89
and destroyed more than 1,000 buildings on Mangole and Taliabu,
Indonesia. A local newspaper account reported a tsunami of nearly
3 meters which was reported by eyewitesses (via. e-mail from Gegar
Sapta Prasetya). On January 24, 1965 a devastating earthquake also hit the
area about 300 km northeast of this epicenter. This event had been
preceded by a series of foreshocks during the previous week. Nearly
3,000 buildings were destroyed on Sanana Island where 71 were killed by
the earthquake and accompanying tsunami.
Other earthquakes of Mw>=7 have occurred in the region on
Aug. 6, 1914 (M 7.0); March 3, 1927 (M 7.0) and June 9, 1938 (M 7.2).

FAR-FIELD FORECAST

Seismicity is expected to increase in areas where seismic energy
from the great shocks is concentrated due to internal reflections
and refractions of waves off internal boundaries. Following are the
locations and distances where this is expected to occur. Triggered
activity appears likely in these regions from 19 October to 30 October, 2001.

0-5 degrees: Regional triggering- Sulawesi, Flores, Timor, Seram,
Moluccas, Halmahera, West Irian.
9-10 degrees: Mindanao, South of Java, West Irian (134E)
17-19 degrees: So. of Sumatera, Luzon, Papua New Guinea (140-141E)
34-36 degrees: Kyushu, Myanmar, Solomon Isl (159-161E)
43-45 degrees: E. Nepal/Bengladesh, Yunnan, NE China, Off E. Coast Honshu
(just N. of Tokyo), So. Vanuatu, Loyalty Isl.
59-61 degrees: Tibet/No India, Northern Kurils, New Zealand (esp.
of E. Coast of No. Island), Kermadec Islands, So. Macquarie Islands,
Mid-Indian Ridge
71-73 degrees: Central Aleutians (Andreanoff near 180W), No. Kamchatka,
So. Iran, Gulf of Aden
103-107 degrees***: So. Italy, Sicily, Poland, Angola, Central
Mediterranean Sea, Vancouver Isl. Yukon, Canada, Off coast No. California
142-146 degrees: El Salvador, Guatemala, Chile/Argentina border
about 28-30S. Galapagos Isl.
176-180 degrees: Near Suriname, So. America (Aseismic area 4.0N 56.0W)
Some seismicity could be triggered in the eastern Venezuela/Trinidad/
southern Windward Islands. area.

***: The strongest triggering is always expected to be along the
shadow zone boundary between 103-107 degrees from the epicenter.

Historical following quakes after large events in the Banda Sea region:

MAIN: AUG 06 1914 6.0S 123.0E 600 MW=7.0

AFTEREVENTS

Aug 07 54N 161E Ml 5.5 Kamchatka
Aug 08 37N 15E Ml>3.5 Sicily
Aug 09 33N 116E Ml>3.5 Southern California
Aug 11 42N 0E Ml 4.6 So. France
Aug 17 41N 124W Ml 4.0 Off Coast No. California
Aug 17 57N 59E Ml 5.5 Ural Mountains, Russia
Aug 22 44N 129W Ms 6.8 OFf Coast of Oregon

MAIN: MAR 03 1927 6.0S 122.0E 60 MW=7.0

AFTEREVENTS

Mar 03 37N 15E Ml>3.5 Sicily
Mar 03 46N 154E MS 6.3 Northern Kuril Isl.
Mar 3-6 47N 18E Swarm of hundreds 2-4.5 Austria/Hungary
Mar 05 20N 68W Ml>4.5 Puerto Rico
Mar 06 26N 45W Ms 6.0 North mid-Atlantic Ridge
Mar 07 36N 135E Mw 7.9 Central Japan
Mar 08 39N 124W Ml>4.0 Coast No. California
Mar 09 43N 72W MMI V New England/New York
Mar 12 50S 161E Ml>5.0 South of New Zealand
Mar 12 42S 104W MS 6.5 East Pacific Rise
Mar 12 42N 2E Ml 4.4 So. France
Mar 12 44N 75W Ml 3.7 So. Quebec, Canada
Mar 13 6S 81W Ms 6.0 Peru
Mar 14 26N 103E Ms 6.0 Sichuan, China
Mar 15 24N 95E Ms 6.5 Myanmar
Mar 15 38N 98E Ms 6.5 Central China
Mar 16 40N 142E Ms 6.4 Hokkaido, Japan
Mar 18 40N 95W Ml 4.3 Iowa/Missouri border

MAIN: JUN 09 1938 3.5S 126.5E 60 MW=7.2

Jun 10 33N 118W Mb 3.3 So. California
Jun 10 25N 125E Mw 7.7 Ryukyu Islands north of Taiwan
Jun 10 34N 117W Ml>4.0 Swarm of events near Banning, CA
Jun 11 51N 4E Ml 5.8 Benelux countries, No. France one of largest in area
Jun 12 37N 141E Mb 5.2 Off E. Coast Honshu (6.0 on Jun 18)
Jun 14 42N 73W Ml 2.4 New England/New York (Followed by Ml 3.7 on Jun 23)
Jun 14 46N 111W Ml 5.0 Montana
Jun 15 31S 71W MB 6.0 Central Chile
Jun 15 21S 169E Ms>5.5 Loyalty Islands (Followed by Ms 6.9 on Jun 23)
Jun 16 27S 129E Ms>7.4 Ryukyu Islands south of Japan
Jun 16 34N 118W Ml 3.0 Los Angeles, California
Jun 17 36N 90W Ml 3.4 New Madrid, Mo
Jun 20 42N 76E MS 6.9 Xinjiang China
Jun 23 30S 71W MS 6.5 Central Chile

AFTEREVENTS

MAIN: JAN 24 1965 2.4S 126.0E 6 MW=7.7

AFTEREVENTS

Jan 24 19S 169E Mb 5.0 Loyalty Islands
Jan 24 33S 179W Mb 4.8 Kermadec Islands (5.4 on Jan 30)
Jan 26 41N 125W Mb 3.9 Off Coast No. California
Jan 26 36N 140E Ms 5.6 Off E. Coast Honshu
Jan 28 2S 102E Mb 5.5 So. of Sumatera
Jan 29 54N 161E Mb 6.2 Kamchatka
Jan 30 51N 180E Ms 5.1 Aleutians (Andreanoff Isl)
Feb 02 2S 138E Ms 6.3 West Irian, PNG
Feb 02 37N 73E Ms 6.1 Hindu Kush/Afghanistan
Feb 04 52S 140E Ms 6.0 So. of Australia
Feb 04 52N 180W MW 8.2 Rat Islands, Aleutians (the strongest
sequence ever recorded in this area)

MAIN: NOV 29 1998 2.1S 124.9E 33 MW=8.3

AFTEREVENTS

Nov 30 10S 163E Mw 5.3 Solomon Islands
Nov 30 6S 151E Mb 5.8 New Britain
Dec 01 26N 104E Mb 4.5 Yunnan (highly destructive in region)
Dec 01 53N 164W Mb 5.6 Unimak Island, Alaska
Dec 01 18S 69W Mb 5.3 So. Peru/Bolivia
Dec 02 34S 109W Mb 5.7 East Pacific Rise
Dec 02 35N 140E Mb 4.3 Off E. Coast Honshu (more later)
Dec 02 9S 67E Ms 5.9 Mid-Indian Ridge
Dec 04 20N 121E Mb 5.4 Northern Luzon, Philippines
Dec 04 38N 122E Ml 4.2 Northern Califonia
Dec 05 52N 170W Ms 5.8 Fox Islands, Aleutians
Dec 06 1N 126E Ms 6.6 Northern Molucca Sea
Dec 07 29N 130E MB 5.3 Ryukyu Islands
Dec 07 5S 103E Ms 5.2 Southern Sumatera
Dec 07 8S 121E Mw 5.8 Flores region, Indonesia
Dec 08 19N 64W Mw 5.6 Virgin Islands
Dec 08 34S 180W MW 5.2 Kermadec Islands
Dec 09 42N 142E Ms 5.3 Hokkaido, Japan
Dec 11 31S 68W Ms 5.5 Chile/Argentina border
Dec 11 37N 71E Ms 5.8 Afghanistan/Hindu Kush (deadly)

Summary of far-field events following Banda Sea mainshocks:

In general, the events of Mb>=5 tend to fall in the areas
described by the listing of far-field events expected above
from distance considerations.

The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Off E. Coast and Central Honshu
Central and southern China
Central Aleutian Islands

The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

Kamchatka/No. Kurils
Southern Kermadec Islands
Regional triggering in Flores/Molucca seas
Loyalty Islands
Ryukyu Islands (could be large)
Afghanistan/Hindu Kush

Secondary location where event tend to occur but are not
as large or as likely . MB>=4.8 considered likely in next
10 days.

Macquarie Islands/So. of Australia
Chile/Argentina Border between 28 and 32S
West Irian/Papua New Guinea

Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=4.0)

Vancouver Island
Central Andreanoff Islands
Off the Coast of California and Oregon

Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occuR (Ml>=3)

New England/Eastern New York
Area new Big Bear City/Yucaipa, California
Southern California south of Los Angeles

Unusual events may occur in

France/Benelux Countries

Great earthquakes have occurred on several occasions following
large events in this region of the Banda Sea including events of
Mw 8.2 in the Central Aleutians (Feb 4, 1965, Rat Islands);
Central Japan (Mw 7.9, Mar 27, 1927), and the Ryukyu Islands (Mw 7.7
June 10, 1938 followed by Mw 7.4 north of there on June 16, 1938).
If the expected CME hits strongly in the next couple of days,
a great event may occur from a combination of triggering factors.

It is also interesting to observe that the sequence of shocks
in the Virgin Islands in the past several days PRECEDED this
event while in 1998, the last moderate quake in the region followed
a similar Banda Sea earthquake by nine days.

It has been observed in the past that great or major earthquakes
are often PRECEDED by unusual events at distances where triggering
might be expected after the event. Unusual earthquakes occurring in the past
several days in Europe and south America are in regions where far-field
aftershocks from this event are expected, so these regions may remain
active.