Amit;

Finally found a very elusive error that was causing the Jones probability to be too low.

Now the odds on a 6.5+ quake in a 3 day window during the 2010-2013 period are 0.3219 so you should get 38 hits in 117 tries whereas you only got 36.

This puts you slightly less than chance which is what Brian found as well.

Case closed?

Roger