I had tentative results with the original list that compared well to Roger's results.

Due to the email problems I've been waiting for the updated prediction list. But he's managed to get it to me.

On the edited list Roger sent me,

I removed the last four from the list simply because they are more recent than my quake database. This left 208 predictions.

I did not analyze them all as 6.5+, but instead each one individually as the magnitude given in the prediction.

There were 50 hits out of those 208 predictions.

Standard Deviation: 10.2220474
Normalized Score: 0.0277162
Probability: .512 (where .50 equals exactly chance, higher is better)

Now, if I run them all as 6.5+, disregarding their stated magnitudes....

This allows me to say that the expected number of hits is .308, or 64 out of 208.

62 were hits - less than expected. (there are more hits now because many predictions were originally for higher than mag 6.5)

Standard Deviation: 10.2932632
Normalized Score: -0.3011759
Probability: .288 (where .50 equals exactly chance higher is better)

Brian