Hi All,

In just a few short hours, the twelfth anniversary of the Loma Prieta Earthquake will be upon us at 5:04PM, October 17th, 2001. This time around I think I'll touch on a few area's we don't give a lot of thought to.

The city closest to the epicenter of the earthquake, Santa Cruz, CA never fully recovered. Today there are many vacant lots where businesses were in presence 12 years ago. That means the owners of those business enterprises also suffered a heavy personal financial loss. Most people don't think about that end of the earthquake disaster toll.

On the other hand we learned that the Oakland Bay Bridge had a section that was supposed to give way in an earthquake. It did exactly what it was designed to do, but we lost a few people who fell into the break-away section in their automobiles. But yet, only a few. Ordinarily the numbers would have been significant.

The public got to see what surface seismic waves look like in remembering the Cypress Structure in Oakland. The top section looked like waves in the ocean. The earthquake sent out the call for reporters from one end of the country to the next. I can recall Bryant Gumble of the Today Show sitting handsomely in his chair as survival work went on in the background. How odd.

The news footage went on for weeks after the earthquake. No bit or morsel was left untouched. But in learning about earthquakes and the dynamics of what can happen a lot of was learned. At first it was hard to understand why the Marina District in San Francisco received so much damage, where other parts of the city had none. Ah, new discovery. It seems the seismic waves went down into the earth, struck hard rock and then ricocheted back up and under the land fill from the prior 1906 earthquake.

We were told it was highly likely that within five years the Hayward Fault would do a repeat performance and heavy stress was placed on informing the public to get ready. Many publications were distributed throughout the Bay Area, TV spots were obtained and for a little while, preparedness took a front seat, instead of the back burner.

So where are we 12 years later? Actually it is not all bad news. We have not had a repeat performance of the Hayward Fault volley with the San Andreas as anticipated. People do believe we are closer to the next big event. Some percentage of people are prepared, many not. Loma Prieta was expected by scientists. Not precisely, but it was expected. So what's expected now? Well, highest on the list is my backyard buddy, The Rodgers Creek Fault. The southern segment has not broken since the early 1700's and when it goes, our scientists expect up to a magnitude 7.1.

Now for the reality check; we have to realize that the average person does not know what may happen to their home, their office or the roads they travel when that quake arrives. The good news is, Don in Hollister and I are working on letting them know in a way they can understand, become informed, be ready, but not so frightened they don't do anything.

There is so much work to do in this regard I can't even begin to fathom the length and breath of this project, but, we are going there, and one day someone few persons will be ready when the RCF jumps up and says its my turn. One of my greatest hopes is that Don's current method of forecasting will give us some notice when that might occur. We won't know till we get there. I know for me, I won't hear it coming because it will be so close. I never hear very close earthquakes, I only get physical symptoms that tell me, like headaches, sometimes vertigo, a strange sleepiness called by sensitives, "the nods." I had them before the Bolinas EQ. The same day, about 3 hours before. Of course, we have the Calistoga Geyser as a true physical anomaly which augers well in our favor. I doubt this grand daddy of an earthquake will arrive without some good precursory phenomena.

In memory of those lost in Loma Prieta we have not forgotten you, but will work with all due measure to do what we can to make the list of the survivors of the next big Bay Area quake a very long one indeed.

Petra