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Within several minutes of the posting of today's earthquake summary,
which emphasized the far-field triggered seismicity on the southern
end of North Island, an earthquake of Ml 5.8 occurred SW of Hastings.
North Island, New Zealand. This earthquake was felt widely throughout
North Island and is likely to have done light damage. This is the
largest earthquake within 50 km of this epicenter (and the first
of Ml>=5.5) since April 11, 1993 when a Ml 6.2 occurred. Prior to that
the previous earthquake in this area of Ml>=5.8 had been May 4, 1971 and
Jan 31, 1948 (both of Ml 5.9), so this is a rare event.
The far-field forecasts had emphasized the possibility of an
event on North Island at this time:

The Kamchatka forecast sent October 8, 2001 had stated:

"Unusual events may occur in

North Island, New Zealand"

The Guam forecast sent October 12, 2001 had stated:

"New Zealand - North Island 37S 177E
Earthquakes of Mw>=6.5 have occurred within 2 weeks in New
Zealand after each earthquake in Guam since 1930 (with the
one exception of 1975). The probability of such an earthquake
in the next week to 10 days is considered very high. Local
personnel should be on watch, especially on North Island."

And:

"59-61 degrees: .... Southern North Island, New Zealand"

Today's event occurred about 250 km south of the epicentral
location which had been considered most likely at this time.
It is located at a distance of 59.9 degrees from the Guam mainshock.
Current parameters from IGNS, New Zealand are:

15Oct2001 03:49 39.7S 176.7E ML=5.8 IGNS SW of Hastings, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Felt widely