FAR-FIELD TRIGGERING CONTINUES WITH STRONG SEISMICITY IN NEW ZEALAND, JAVA

SUMMARY

A strong series of earthquakes of Ml>=3.5 has been occurring in
the southern North Island and northern South Island of New Zealand
since the Kamchatka and Guam earthquakes. Eight events of Ml>=3.5
have occurred over the weekend in 5 different locations in New
Zealand. Both the Kamchatka and the Guam far-field aftershock
forecasts had specifically noted unusual earthquake activity
was likely on the southern North Island and South Island at this
time.

GLOBAL

The largest earthquake of the day occurred south of Bali (Mb 5.9).
This event was accompanied by a series of 5 other events in the
region. Ten earthquakes of Ml 4.7-6.5 have occurred in this subduction zone
since the Guam earthquake of October 12 compared with two during
the previous 2 days. The subduction zone is between 30 -38 degrees from
Guam, and 69-75 degrees from Kamchatka, distances at which far-field
triggering is considered likely.
For a listing of events in this region see:
http://geof.bmg.go.id/aeic/30events.asp
(This site is a bit slow loading)
A number of other events at 60-63 degrees from the Kamchatka mainshock
also occurred today. These were in the Bay of Bengal (Mb 4.9; 62 degrees);
Kashmir/Pakistan (Mb 3.7; 61 degrees); and the largest event in the
U.S. near Ocotille (Ml 3.0; 61 degrees).

U.S./CANADA

The strongest activity reported today in the U.S./Canada area
occurred in Hawaii. Hawaii had also been expected to see significant
far-field triggering from both Kamchatka and Guam. After the Ml 3.0
last night, two additional events of Ml 3.2 and 3.4 occurred this
morning in the state. These were the first events at this magnitude
level since September 11 when the Lo'ihi swarm was proceeding. Hawaii
is located about 58-59 degrees from Guam.
The California/Nevada area was relatively quiet today. Only one event
(at Ocotillo Ml 3.0) was recorded of Ml>=3. Earthquakes in Northern and
Central California of Ml>=2 occurred near Concord (Ml 2.3);
New Idria (Ml 2.3); Willits (Ml 2.3) and the Geysers (Ml 2.5). In
southern California the only events of Ml>=2 near Wheeler Ridge
(Ml 2.0) and Ocotillo (Ml 3.0).
One earthquake of Ml>=3 occurred in Alaska - on the Alaska Peninsula
at at Ml 3.2. This event is located at 60 degrees from the Guam mainshock
and could be a far-field aftershock of that event.
Other areas of the U.S. and Canada were not reporting events today,
as they are closed on weekends.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand has experienced high rates of seismicity since
October 11. IGNS has reported eight earthquakes of Ml>=3.5 in the
area since Friday. These have occurred in 5 different regions.
New Zealand was expected to see high rates of seismicity at
this time as it was ideally located with respect to both
the Kamchatka and Guam earthquakes for far-field aftershocks.
The Kamchatka forecast had said:

"103-106 degrees***: South Island, N.Z."
and

"Unusual events may occur in

...North Island, New Zealand"

The Guam aftershock forecast had said:

"59-61 degrees: ... South Island, southern North Island"

"New Zealand - North Island 37S 177E
Earthquakes of Mw>=6.5 have occurred within 2 weeks in New
Zealand after each earthquake in Guam since 1930 (with the
one exception of 1975). The probability of such an earthquake
in the next week to 10 days is considered very high. Local
personnel should be on watch, especially on North Island."

All of these events lie between 58 and 61 degrees from the
Guam mainshock.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html
(currently being reconfigured, may not be available).

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained quiet today. There were no M- or
X-class flares observed on the sun today.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011014events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Hurricane Karen has been down-graded to Tropical Storm. It is
speeding up toward the north and should arrive in Nova Scotia
on Monday Oct. 15. Only minor seismicity is expected in the
Charlevoix Fault Zone and Gaspe Peninsula areas of Canada.
For tracking information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200113.html

After going around in circles for two days, Tropical Storm
Manuel has changed course and is expected to take a path
parallel to Baja Peninsula for the next 3 days. No seismicity
changes are expected associated with this tropical storm.
For tracking information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/ep200115.html

Typhoon Haiyan is moving towards Taiwan. A typhoon warning
is in effect starting Monday Oct. 15. For detail see:
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V3.0e/index-e.htm
and
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html
The largest earthquake in Taiwan since October 2 occurred today
with Ml 4.5. The timing and magnitude of this event may have been affected
by Haiyan. Seismicity in Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands should increase
as Typhoon Haiyan moves through this region.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 15 is 28 days after the previous New Moon.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=4.0 6 2.0 0.05
Aleutians MB>=4.0 40 3.1 0.01
New Britain MB>=4.0 25 2.6 0.03
So. California MB>=3.0 67 2.3 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central So America MB>=4.0 -20 -2.0 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 14Oct2001 03:53:46 32.8S 179.5E MB=4.6 NEIS SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

O: 11Oct2001 09:38 40.1S 174.8E ML=3.6 IGNS SW of Wanganui, N.Z.
O: 13Oct2001 16:15 40.0S 174.8E ML=3.7 IGNS SW of Wanganui, N.Z.
O: 13Oct2001 19:51 40.1S 174.8E ML=3.7 IGNS SW of Wanganui, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Probably felt in the Wanganui area
Note: (ED): These are probably far-field aftershocks from Guam, as
they lies at 59 degrees from that mainshock a distance at which
triggering is considered likely.

O: 12Oct2001 08:54 39.3S 174.9E ML=3.6 IGNS W of Ohakune, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Possibly felt in Ohakune-Raetihi area

O: 12Oct2001 11:55 41.7S 173.9E ML=3.7 IGNS S of Blenheim , N.Z.
O: 12Oct2001 17:12 41.7S 173.9E ML=3.6 IGNS S of Blenheim , N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Probably felt in Marlborough.
Note: (ED): These are probably far-field aftershocks from Guam, as
they lies at 60 degrees from that mainshock a distance at which
triggering is considered likely.

O: 14Oct2001 16:50 38.8S 174.4E ML=4.1 IGNS NE of New Plymouth, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Likely to have been felt in northern Taranaki
Note: (ED): This is probably a far-field aftershock from Guam, as
it lies at 58 degrees from that mainshock.

ASIA

O: 14OCT2001 16:53 33.8N 135.4E Mj=4.4 NIED CENTRAL_WAKAYAMA_PREF, JAPAN

O: 14Oct2001 01:10:45 8.6S 110.6E MW=5.9 NEIS JAWA, INDONESIA
O: 14oct2001 01:10:45 08.5S 110.6E Mb=5.9 ASC SSW of Pasirombo (Java)
Note: This event is 74 degrees from the Kamchatka earthquakes of Aug.
8, a distance at which far-field triggering is likely.

O: 13Oct2001 20:54:48 18.7N 92.4E MB=4.9 NEIS BAY OF BENGAL
O: 13oct2001 20:54:50 18.7N 092.3E Mb=4.9 ASC W of Owa (Bay of Bengal)
Note: This event is 62 degrees from the Kamchatka earthquakes, a distance
at which far-field triggering is likely.

O: 12oct2001 15:24:00 09.7S 114.9E ML=3.8 ASC SSW of Pecatu (Bali

O: 14OCT2001 16:43:00 8.6S 120.2E SR=5.3 AEIC1 W RUTENG, INDONESIA
Note: This event is 70 degrees from the Kamchatka earthquakes of Aug.
8, and 33 degrees from Guam distances at which far-field triggering is likely.

O: 14OCT2001 15:27:50 11.9S 116.1E SR=5.8 AEIC1 S PRAYA, INDONESIA
O: 14oct2001 15:27:59 10.8S 116.5E Ms=4.3 ASC S of Sejorong (Sumbawa)
O: 13oct2001 14:56:30 09.3S 117.0E ML=3.0 ASC SSW of Garantahbaw
Note: This event is 73 degrees from the Kamchatka earthquakes of Aug.
8, and 37 degrees from Guam distances at which far-field triggering is likely.

O: 14OCT2001 12:26:00 9.1S 113.7E SR=5.1 AEIC1 S JEMBER, INDONESIA

O: 13OCT2001 16:28:00 2.1S 123.1E SR=6.4 AEIC1 S P.LELENG, INDONESIA
Note: This event is 62 degrees from the Kamchatka earthquakes, a distance
at which far-field triggering is likely.

O: 13OCT2001 14:56:30 9.3S 117.0E SR=4.7 AEIC1 SE SELONG, INDONESIA
Note: This event is 73 degrees from the Kamchatka earthquakes of Aug.
8, and 37 degrees from Guam distances at which far-field triggering is likely.

O: 14OCT2001 04:07:13 24.0N 121.6E ML=4.5 CWB Hualien, Taiwan

O: 14OCT2001 21:14:43 32.9N 76.1E Ms=3.7 GSSC KASHMIR-INDIA BORDER
Note: This event is 61 degrees from the Kamchatka earthquakes, a distance
at which far-field triggering is likely.

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 14OCT2001 04:58:59 12.1N 87.2W ML=2.8 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 14OCT2001 07:02:32 12.2N 87.3W MC=2.8 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 14OCT2001 18:44:08 12.0N 86.1W MC=2.8 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 14OCT2001 20:34:10 12.2N 87.0W MC=2.8 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 14OCT2001 13:01:53 13.0N 89.0W ML=3.7 SIS GUATEMALA, C.A.

O: 14OCT2001 21:05:19 12.2N 88.2W MC=3.6 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

EUROPE

O: 14OCT2001 18:53:32 38.6N 25.9E ML=3.7 KAN AEGEAN SEA, TURKEY

O: 14OCT2001 06:23:27 40.8N 29.2E ML=3.2 KAN MARMARA SEA, TURKEY

O: 14OCT2001 03:41:20 37.6N 42.9E ML=4.3 KAN VAN, TURKEY

O: 13OCT2001 20:42:58 38.9N 26.3E ML=3.5 KAN AEGEAN SEA, TURKEY

O: 12OCT2001 10:36:53 37.0N 28.6E ML=3.8 NOA GREECE

O: 12OCT2001 14:44:22 35.7N 27.6E ML=3.4 NOA GREECE

O: 12OCT2001 16:18:11 38.9N 26.8E ML=3.7 NOA GREECE
O: 13OCT2001 17:42:55 38.6N 26.8E ML=3.9 NOA GREECE

U.S/CANADA

HAWAII

O: 14OCT2001 17:16:25 20.1N 155.7W ML=3.4 HVO NE of Kawaihae, Hawaii
O: 14OCT2001 3:26:43 19.9N 155.9W ML=3.2 HVO WSW of Waikoloa, Hawaii
UP:20OCT2001 AAAA 20.9N 155.4W 13P (10-11-01) 2.5-4.0 Hawaii Region
Note: These continue the intensification of activity in Hawaii. This
may be due to far-field effects from Guam and Kamchatka as noted
in previous reports.
For Hawaii earthquake data see:

http://elsei.wr.usgs.gov/results/seismic/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 14OCT2001 01:00:30 32.1N 116.2W ML=3.0 SCSN SSW of Ocotillo, CA

O: 14OCT2001 20:52:01 35.1N 119.0W ML=2.0 SCSN NNW of Wheeler Ridge, CA

O: 14OCT2001 20:41:17 36.5N 120.7W ML=2.3 NCSN NNW of New Idria, CA

O: 14OCT2001 23:05:55 38.0N 122.0W ML=2.3 NCSN WNW of Concord, CA

O: 13OCT2001 23:29:09 38.0N 118.9W ML=2.4 NCSN SSE of Bodie, CA

O: 14OCT2001 0:41:09 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.5 NCSN E of The Geysers, CA

O: 14OCT2001 15:19:09 39.4N 123.3W ML=2.3 NCSN SE of Willits, CA

O: 14OCT2001 5:15:03 40.3N 116.9W ML=2.4 NCSN W of Tenabo, NV

ALASKA

O: 14OCT2001 02:58:01 56.8N 160.3W ML=3.2 AEIC N of Sand Point, Alaska