Hi Cathryn. Quakes that occur in the area of the Solomon Island and the Caspian Sea are the ones most likely to affect the central coast of California. There are other areas of course, but these are the ones that come to mind for now.

The quakes to be concerned about are those that are at least 7.0Md and larger. A quake that is a little smaller may have an affect, but for the most part they are not likely to.

The theory on far far-field aftershocks isn't new as it was seen right after the 1906 quake and was also seen after the Northridge quake. It is only the last couple of years that it is being watched more closely and can be plotted.

To be able to determine if it will occur under your house isn't possible at this time. As I have seen with the data that I use I can pinpoint the location where a quake is most likely to center, but as you can see this hasn't happened yet. Close, but not at the exact location given. I think the closest I have been to the location given is about 3 miles. Of course it must also be said there have been some that didn't even occur. In many ways I learn more from those that don't occur then from those that do. I've learned that either there is no stress in the area, or that there is stress in the area, but it's not close to breaking. Determining which one it is, is the hard part. For right now I'm going on the assumption that there is stress in the area, but it is not ready to break.

The quakes in the LA basin are a case in point. There is an indication of stress there, but as to how much and at what point it will break isn't know. My data tells when and where, but not how much. For the most part I have been lucky in getting the magnitudes for the quakes I have forecasted, but that is only because these magnitudes are the ones more likely to occur. Also at present time I'm really not sure if I will see anything that would indicate a major quake is about to occur. Hopefully that will change. Take Care…Don in creepy town