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Posted by Lowell on October 13, 2001 at 15:40:50:
DOUBLE WHAMMIES TRIGGER TODAY'S EARTHQUAKES SUMMARY The strongest or most unusual global shocks since the Guam (Mw 7.0)
earthquake have occurred as far-field aftershocks of both the Guam and the
Kamchatka quakes of October 8 (Mw 6.5, 6.4). These have occurred
in the Molucca Sea (Mb 5.6); the Leeward Islands in the eastern
Caribbean (Mb 4.4); in southern Peru (Ml 4.4 or 4.8); Off the Coast
of Oregon (Mb 4.1); in the Southern Vanuatu/Loyalty Islands
region (Mb 4.7) and in Hawaii (Ml 3.0). For details see the earthquake
listing and comments at the end of this report. GLOBAL Global seismicity was moderate during the early part of the day,
increasing to high toward the end of the day. In addition to the
far-field aftershocks identified in the summary above, earthquakes
of Mb 4.0 (Taiwan); Ml 3.8 (Niaragua); Ml 3.5 (Turkey) and a swarm
in Poland (maximum Ml 3.5).
An unconfirmed earthquake of Mb 4.5-5.5 apparently occurred
this afternoon in the Nepal/Northern India/Bay of Bengal region,
current reports are not accurate enough to identify that event
in this report at this time. U.S./CANADA The largest earthquake in the U.S./Canada region which was listed
today was a Ml 4.1 off the Coast of Oregon. This could be considered
a far-field aftershock from Guam and Kamchatka. Since it is a weekend
and most seismic networks are not manned, no reports were available
from the eastern or central portions of the U.S. or Canada.
In the California/Nevada region, the largest event was a Ml 3.3
in the Geysers, CA region. This was followed by an Ml 2.6 about
12 hours later. The only other events of Ml>=2 in the region since
the last report were Ml 2.3 (Coso Junction); Ml 2.3 (followed by a
Ml 1.9) aftershock near Simmler, southern CA; and a Ml 2.1 aftershock
at Willits, CA.
One earthquake of Ml>3.2 was recorded in the Kodiak Island region
of Alaska. A Ml 3.0 was also registered near the east flank, Kilauea,
Hawaii. This is the first earthquake of Ml>=3 in the Hawaiian Islands
since Sept. 11 when the Lo'ihi Seamount swarm was ending. It was
probably helped along by seismic energy from Guam and Kamchatka. NEW ZEALAND No events were reported by IGSN as it is the weekend. The on-line
seismometer shows four mild events near the seismometer at the
southern end of North Island. The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS The geomagnetic field remained at quiet conditions today. There
were no X- or M-class flares observed on the sun. SEC is expecting
an active storm conditions to begin tonight or tomorrow.
For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011013events.txt
TROPICAL STORMS The only Hurricane currently likely to affect North America
is Hurricane Karen (previously sub-tropical storm one). Karen
currently lies off the coast of Maryland and is expected to
track northward towards Maine and Nova Scotia. Seismicity in
both regions is expected to increase over the next three
days as the low pressures of Karen impact local geological
structures. Landfall is expected by Tuesday Oct. 16. The
Gasep Peninsula and Charlevoix Fault Zone lie in this region
and often show increased seismicity when hurricanes strike
in the vicinity. There is also minor activity in the Lewiston,
Maine area to watch for. For strike probability map see: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1301P.GIF For tracking see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200113.html
(very slow) Tropical storm Manuel has slowed to a crawl in the eastern
Pacific, but is not expected to impact seismicity in North
America. For track line see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/ep200115.html
(very slow) TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR) Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes. October 14 is 27 days after the previous New Moon.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are: Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level New Britain MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04
Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 28 3.1 0.01
So. California MB>=3.0 59 2.0 0.05
Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 17 2.4 0.04
Utah MB>=2.0 19 1.9 0.05
Aleutians MB>=4.0 35 2.7 0.03 Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are: No regions
EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS (AND TRIGGERING NOTES) GLOBAL CARIBBEAN O: 13Oct2001 16:15:29 17.1N 60.3W MB=4.4 NEIS LEEWARD ISLANDS
Note: This event can also be considered a far-field aftershock from both
Kamchatka and Guam. The far-field forecasts had noted far-field shocks likely
at: From Kamchatka: "103-106 degrees***: .... Leeward Islands" and from Guam: "142-146 degrees: Windward Islands" This event lies 102 degrees from Kamchatka and 142 degrees from
Guam.
SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS
O: 12Oct2001 22:19:17 20.6S 169.5E MB=4.7 NEIS VANUATU ISLANDS
Note: This event can be considered a far-field aftershock from
both Guam and Kamchatka. The far-field forecasts had expected increased
seismicity at: From Guam: "43-45 degrees: ....Loyalty Islands" and from Kamchatka: "71-73 degrees: ......Loyalty/So. Vanuatu Isl" The event lies at 73 degrees from Kamchatka and 42 degrees from Guam.
ASIA
O: 13Oct2001 16:26:59 0.8N 125.9E MB=5.6 NEIS NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
Note: This event was considered a likely far-field aftershock
in the both Kamchatka and Guam far-field forecasts: From Kamchatka: "
The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be: .....Molucca Sea/Halmahera" and "59-61 degrees: ... Halmahera, Celebes Sea" This event lies at 59 degrees from the Kamchatka mainshock. From Guam (21 degrees) "
The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be: ....Mindanao, Philippines" The Moluccas adjoin Mindanao to the south. and:
17-19 degrees:... Halmahera" Halmahera is located in the Molucca Sea. O: 12OCT2001 04:41:00 8.8S 116.1E SR=5.0 AEIC1 W PRAYA , INDONESIA O: 13OCT2001 08:58:59 23.8N 121.4E ML=4.0 CWB Hualien, Taiwan CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA O: 13OCT2001 06:23:34 12.1N 87.9W MC=3.8 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A. O: 13OCT2001 0:31:23 17.4S 71.2W ML=4.4 DGF Southern Peru/No. Chile
O: 13OCT2001 00:31 17.6S 71.1W ML=4.8 IGP Ilo, Locumba, Peru
Note: This event appears to be a far-field aftershock from both
Guam and Kamchatka. The far-field forecasts had stated: From Kamchatka: "Secondary location where event tend to occur but are not
as large or as likely . MB>=4.8 considered likely in next
10 days. Northern Chile/Argentina" (Five other moderate earthquakes occurred in this area yesterday as well). From Guam: "142-146 degrees: ...northern Chile subduction zone, Peru aftershock zone" The event occurred 144 degrees from the Guam mainshock. EUROPE O: 13OCT2001 20:42:58 38.9N 26.3E ML=3.5 KAN EGE DENYZY,TURKEY
O: 12OCT2001 19:18:09 39.0N 27.1E ML=3.2 KAN BERGAMA (YZMYR),TURKEY O: 12OCT2001 09:46:28 51.1N 15.6E ML=3.5 BGR POLAND
Note: One of a swarm of event in the area in the past two days. U.S/CANADA CALIFORNIA/NEVADA O: 13Oct2001 05:14:38 38.8N 122.8W ML=3.2 NEIS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 13OCT2001 5:14:38 38.8N 122.7W ML=3.3 NCSN ESE of The Geysers, CA O: 13OCT2001 14:48:02 33.2N 117.6W ML=0.9 SCSN W of Oceanside, CA O: 13OCT2001 7:26:20 34.0N 118.7W ML=1.9 SCSN SSW of Malibu, CA
O: 13OCT2001 7:36:02 34.2N 118.5W ML=1.4 SCSN W of Northridge, CA O: 13OCT2001 16:29:32 35.4N 119.9W ML=1.9 SCSN N of Simmler, CA
O: 13OCT2001 15:56:47 35.4N 119.9W ML=2.3 SCSN N of Simmler, CA O: 13OCT2001 8:36:42 36.0N 117.8W ML=2.3 NCSN ESE of Coso Junction, CA O: 13OCT2001 8:59:38 37.1N 121.5W ML=1.6 NCSN NE of San Martin, CA O: 13OCT2001 10:29:06 37.2N 114.7W ML=1.3 NCSN S of Helene, NV O: 13OCT2001 17:12:36 38.8N 122.7W ML=2.6 NCSN ESE of The Geysers, CA O: 13OCT2001 18:13:05 39.4N 123.3W ML=2.1 NCSN SE of Willits, CA PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA O: 13Oct2001 14:56:42 43.4N 127.0W MB=4.1 NEIS OFF COAST OF OREGON
Note: This event can be considered a far-field aftershock from
Kamchatka. The far-field forecast had expected increased seismicity
at: "Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occuR (Ml>=3)
...Off Coast of Northern California/Oregon"
ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA
O: 13OCT2001 17:53:02 44.7N 111.1W MD=0.8 MBMG MONTANA
O: 12OCT2001 02:53:27 44.7N 111.0W MD=0.1 MBMG MONTANA ALASKA O: 13Oct2001 10:59:41 58.7N 152.6W ML>3.0 NEIS KODIAK ISL REGION, ALASKA
O: 13OCT2001 10:59:44 58.8N 152.8W ML=3.3 AEIC SW of Seldovia, Alaska HAWAII O: 13OCT2001 12:38:19 19.3N 155.1W ML=3.0 HVO N of Ka`ena Point, Hawaii
O: 13OCT2001 12:37:44 19.3N 155.1W ML=2.6 HVO NNE of Ka`ena Point, Hawaii
Note: This is the first event of ML>=3 in the region of Hawaii since
the Lo'ihi Seamount swarm of September 10-11, 2001. It may be considered
a far field aftershock from both the Kamchatka and the Guam earthquakes as
stated in the far-field forecasts: For Guam: "Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=4.5) Hawaii - Earthquakes of Ml>=4 have occurred on 4 occasions
considered very likely." and "59-61 degrees: ... Hawaii" This event is 58-59 degrees from the Guam mainshock. For Kamchatka: "43-45 degrees: ... Hawaii"
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