FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCKS FROM KAMCHATKA BEGIN WITH KURILS MB 5.9

SUMMARY

KAMCHATKA AFTERSHOCKS

The local aftershock sequence of the two Kamchatka earthquakes (now
identified as Ms 6.4 and 6.1) has been quite energetic as aftershock
sequences in that region generally are. At least 11 aftershocks of
Mb>=4 have been listed by CSEM, however the number is probably much
greater than that. The largest aftershock thus far occurred this
morning (Oct 10 UT) at 01:32 UT with Mb 5.2-5.5.
Far-field aftershocks have also been occurring. A Mb 5.9
recorded late last night (UT) in the Kuril Islands was the first
listing of expected locations in the far-field forecast:

"Secondary location where event tend to occur but are not
as large or as likely . MB>=4.8 considered likely in next
10 days.

Kuril Islands"

An unusual earthquake being reported in the United Kingdom this
morning may also be a far-field aftershock. CSEM is reporting the
(unconfirmed) parameters of this event as:

2001/10/10 02:52:27.5 51.6N 3.2W 10 Ml3.5 A LDG UNITED KINGDOM

The forecast also identified Southern California as an area
where earthquakes of Ml>=3 may be triggered. A Ml 3.2 was registered
near Santa Rosa Island off the coast of So. California this afternoon.
This event is the largest within 40 km of the epicenter since July 19,
1991 when a Ml 3.5 occurred and was located at 58 degrees from Kamchatka.

Far-field aftershocks were also expected in the Guatemala/Oaxaca
areas.

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

....Nicaragua/Costa Rica/Mexico - Oaxaca."

Two earthquakes of Ml 4.6 occurred today in these regions, although
they appear more closely related to the landfall of Hurricane Iris
this morning than to far-field triggering from Kamchatka.

EARTHQUAKES ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRIS LANDFALL AT GUATEMALA/BELIZE

As noted, two earthquakes were reported from the region of the
landfall of Hurricane Iris today. The parameters of these events were
given by NEIS and SSN (Mexico Seismic Service) as:

O: 09Oct2001 16:16:54 13.4N 90.5W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST OF GUATEMALA
O: 09Oct2001 18:48:21 18.2N 95.3W MB=4.6 NEIS VERACRUZ, MEXICO
O: 09OCT2001 18:48:21 18.2N 95.3W ML=4.7 SSN SUR DE VERACRUZ, MX

These earthquakes occurred just as Hurricane Iris (now downgraded
to Tropical Storm) was passing 200 km north of the Guatemala location
and then again as it passed about 200 km south of the Veracruz, MX. location.
Iris hit the coast of Belize/Guatemala as a Category 4 hurricane (winds
of sustained speed 140+ m/h, the highest hurricane category is 5).

The eye of Iris was located at approximately the following positions
today:

09 GMT 10/09/01 16.0N 90.8W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/09/01 16.1N 92.8W 35 1004 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 10/09/01 16.2N 94.8W 33 1004 Tropical Depression

Source:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/at200111.track.html

The Guatemala earthquake is the largest within 50 km of that epicenter
since Jan 11, 2001 when a Mb 4.8 occurred.
The Veracruz event is an unusual earthquake. The last event of Ml>=4.5
within 100 km of this epicenter occurred on Dec. 23, 1998 nearly 3 years ago
(Ml 4.6). The last event which was larger occurred on July 25, 1991.
The region within 100 km of the Veracruz earthquake also
seems most active during period of high solar/geomagnetic activity.
Table 1 shows that an anomalously high number of earthquakes in the
Veracruz, Mexico area occur during high sunspot/geomagnetic activity
years.

Table 1: Number of earthquakes of Mb>=4.5 within 100 km of the Veracruz, Mexico
earthquake of 9 October, 2001.

YEAR: Year of occurrence of earthquake(s)
#: Number of earthquakes of Mb>=4.5 within 100 km of Veracruz in that year
SS#: The yearly sunspot number (a measure of geomagnetic and solar
activity).

YEAR # SS#

1916 1 058
1937 1 114
1943 1 016
1946 1 092
1948 1 136
1955 1 038
1957 2 190
1959 5 159
1960 1 112
1965 2 015
1966 1 047
1968 1 106
1969 3 106
1970 3 105
1980 1 154
1981 1 140
1982 1 116
1985 2 017
1986 1 013
1987 1 029
1988 3 100
1989 2 157
1990 5 143
1991 2 145
1997 1 021
1998 3 064
2001 1 100+

Sunspot numbers from:
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/YEARLY

Of these, 33 fall within 1 year of a solar maximum (highest
sunspot activity in 11-year cycle). There are 47 events of Ml>=4.5
in this region, so 33 is 70% of the total falling within a 3-year
out of 11 year period. The expected number of events falling within
1 year of solar maxima should have been 12 (27%). This means that
an excess of about 21 of 47 total events occurring during solar
maxima are anomalous. In addition, 41 of the total 47 events occur
within years when the solar activity was high (SS#>=50). Only 6
occurred during years of low or moderate solar/geomagnetic
activity. Could the events in this region be related to the high
solar/geomagnetic activity? Another question for the reader to
ponder.

GLOBAL

Global seismicity was dominated by the Kamchatka sequence including
an event of Mb 5.2-5.5 and many smaller aftershocks. A regional
(probably triggered) earthquake of Mb 5.9 was recorded this evening
in the northeast Kuril Islands. Likewise a Mb 4.8 in the Lake Baykal
region of northeast Russia may have been triggered by the Kamchatka
events. This was the largest event near today's epicenter in more
than 10 years.
Two earthquakes of Mb 4.6 were also recorded in the Mexico/Guatemala
associated with the passage of the Category 4 Hurricane Iris (see Summary
above for details). The aftershock sequence in Guerrero, Mexico
also continued unabated.
Besides the Mb 5.9 in the Kurils, the strongest event of the day
occurred in the Tonga Islands (Mb 5.1). Other events were recorded
in Southern Sumatera (Mb 4.1) and the Gulf of Aden (Mb 4.2).

U.S./CANADA

The largest earthquake listed for the U.S./Canada region today
occurred off the coast of Southern California near Santa Rosa Island
(Ml 3.2). This event is the largest within 40 km of the epicenter since
July 19, 1991 when a Ml 3.5 occurred. The Los Angeles area of southern
California also continued active with a Ml 2.5 near Silver Lake, a Ml
1.8 near Frazier Park, and a Ml 1.4 SE of Inglewood, CA in the past
24 hours. The largest earthquake in Central or Northern California
was a Ml 2.7 near Gilroy. This area has experienced a series of
microearthquakes over the past two weeks.
Other events of Ml>=2 in the California/Nevada region in the past
day occurred as a Ml 2.0 (Parkfield); a Ml 2.0 (Coso Junction). The
area near Obsidian Butte in southern California continued active with
an Ml 2.2.
Alaska had 3 light earthquakes (Ml 3.3, 3.3, 3.1) today, but
Hawaii again showed no activity at this level. Likewise, no
events of Ml>=2 were listed elsewhere in the U.S. or Canada for
October 9.

NEW ZEALAND

Activity quieted down throughout New Zealand today. Only one
light shock could be seen on the on-line seismometer. IGNS did
not report any shocks today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

A moderate geomagnetic storm began today at about 09:00 UT.
Although the storm lasted for 9 hours, it never passed Kp 4
levels, and is not expected to impact global seismicity.
There was one M- Class flare recorded on the sun today with
the following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS
2090 + 1046 1113 1149 M1.4

No seismicity has thus far been reported at the time of this flare.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011009events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Hurricane Iris made landfall on Belize today as a category 4
hurricane and quickly dissipated to tropical storm status. Associated
seismicity is discussed in the summary above.

Tropical storm Jerry has dissipated in the Caribbean and will
not make landfall. No associated seismicity is expected.

No other tropical storms are currently located in the Atlantic
or eastern Pacific regions.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 10 is 23 days after the previous New Moon.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caribbean MB>=4.0 22 2.4 0.04
Central California MB>=0.0 32 2.1 0.05
Central California MB>=2.0 11 2.9 0.02
Central California MB>=3.0 23 2.9 0.02
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 56 2.5 0.04
San Andreas MB>=0.0 14 2.4 0.04
San Andreas MB>=3.0 38 2.7 0.02
So Asia MB>=4.0 50 3.6 0.01
Canada MB>=2.0 26 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NO REGIONS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 07Oct2001 08:35:47 27.2S 178.4W MB=4.0 NEIS KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

O: 07Oct2001 08:11:38 27.4S 176.9W MB=4.7 NEIS KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 09Oct2001 20:12:02 23.2S 175.6W MB=5.1 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS REGION

O: 07Oct2001 21:43:09 23.7S 179.9E MB=3.9 NEIS SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
O: 07Oct2001 07:43:56 23.8S 179.9E MB=5.0 NEIS SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 09OCT2001 23:53:40 48.1N 154.8E Ms=5.8 GSSC KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
O: 09Oct2001 23:53:39 47.9N 154.9E MB=5.9 NEIS KURIL ISLANDS
Note: This event was expected as a far-field aftershock of the
Kamchatka earthquakes.

O: 10OCT2001 01:49:59 52.3N 106.6E Ms=4.8 GSSC LAKE BAYKAL, RUSSIA
Note: This is the largest earthquake in the region within 100 km
of this epicenter since May 12, 1991 A similar-sized event (Mb 4.8) occurred
on July 13, 1993. It is the first earthquake in this area of Mb>=4.5
since April 14, 1999. It is located at 32 degrees from Kamchatka near
an expected triggering distance.

O: 09oct2001 15:33:30 04.9S 102.3E Ms=4.1 ASC NNE of Karkuw, S. Sumatera

O: 09oct2001 03:54:51 12.9N 049.5E Ms=4.2 ASC Gulf of Aden

O: 09OCT2001 15:35:10 7.6S 109.7E SR=4.8 AEIC1 NW KEBUMEN, INDONESIA

O: 08OCT2001 06:14:00 6.1S 120.8E SR=4.9 AEIC1 E P.SELAYAR, INDONESIA

O: 08OCT2001 00:32:50 7.4S 126.7E SR=5.2 AEIC1 NE DILLI, INDONESIA

O: 07OCT2001 21:05:30 9.7S 115.1E SR=5.2 AEIC1 S DENPASAR, INDONESIA

O: 07Oct2001 03:44:10 3.7S 126.2E MB=5.2 NEIS BURU, INDONESIA

O: 07Oct2001 02:21:10 3.2S 143.0E MW=6.1 NEIS NR N CST NEW GUINEA, PNG.
O: 07Oct2001 04:47:30 3.2S 142.8E MB=4.6 NEIS NR N CST NEW GUINEA, PNG.

O: 07Oct2001 18:25:22 31.6N 142.4E MB=4.1 NEIS SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

O: 07Oct2001 12:12:56 0.2S 125.0E MB=5.2 NEIS SOUTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

O: 07Oct2001 10:01:35 20.4N 94.8E MB=4.3 NEIS MYANMAR

O: 08Oct2001 18:20:41 52.8N 160.1E MW=6.1 NEIS OFF E COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 08Oct2001 18:14:26 52.7N 160.2E MW=6.4 NEIS OFF E COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 08Oct2001 06:18:50 52.7N 160.3E MB=5.0 NEIS OFF E COAST OF KAMCHATKA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 09Oct2001 16:16:54 13.4N 90.5W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST OF GUATEMALA
Note: This earthquake occurred just as Hurricane Iris (now downgraded
to Tropical Storm) was passing about 200 km north of this location.
See:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/at200111.track.html
Iris hit the coast of Belize/Guatemala as a Category 4 hurricane.

O: 09Oct2001 18:48:21 18.2N 95.3W MB=4.6 NEIS VERACRUZ, MEXICO
O: 09OCT2001 18:48:21 18.2N 95.3W ML=4.7 SSN SUR DE VERACRUZ, MX
Note: This earthquake occurred just as Hurricane Iris (now downgraded
to Tropical Storm) was passing about 200 km south of this location.
This is an unusual earthquake. The last event of Ml>=4.5 within 100
km of this epicenter occurred on Dec. 23, 1998 nearly 3 years ago (Ml 4.6).
The last event which was larger occurred on July 25, 1991. The area
seems most active during period of high solar/geomagnetic activity (see
summary above).

See:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/at200111.track.html
Iris hit the coast of Belize/Guatemala as a Category 4 hurricane.

O: 09OCT2001 14:56:49 16.9N 100.2W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX
O: 09OCT2001 11:53:24 17.0N 100.1W ML=4.4 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX
O: 09OCT2001 09:50:45 16.6N 100.1W ML=4.4 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX
O: 09OCT2001 00:25:17 16.7N 100.0W ML=4.1 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX
O: 08OCT2001 21:08:56 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.3 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX
O: 09OCT2001 00:34:22 16.9N 100.2W ML=4.4 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX

O: 08Oct2001 03:59:54 16.8N 99.6W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST GUERRERO, MEX
O: 08Oct2001 03:39:22 17.2N 99.9W MB=5.5 NEIS GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 09OCT2001 09:29:59 8.9N 83.0W MC=4.0 CASC COSTA RICA, C.A.

EUROPE

O: 09OCT2001 03:35:52 38.7N 39.9E ML=3.4 KAN PALU,TURKEY
O: 09OCT2001 03:18:35 38.6N 39.8E ML=3.0 KAN PALU,TURKEY

O: 08OCT2001 04:50:21 40.6N 23.2E ML=4.0 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 05:26:45 40.6N 23.2E ML=4.2 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 05:32:17 40.5N 23.1E ML=4.0 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 06:52:50 40.5N 23.1E ML=3.1 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 06:55:30 40.5N 23.1E ML=3.1 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 07:25:57 40.4N 23.1E ML=2.9 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE
O: 08OCT2001 08:00:26 40.5N 23.1E ML=3.3 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE

O: 08OCT2001 11:38:13 36.8N 28.3E ML=4.1 NOA WESTERN TURKEY
O: 08OCT2001 18:09:11 37.1N 28.6E ML=3.9 NOA GREECE

O: 08OCT2001 16:01:24 36.0N 26.9E ML=3.6 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 09Oct2001 15:30:54 34.0N 120.1W ML=3.3 NEIS OFF COAST OF CALIFORNIA

O: 07Oct2001 21:13:32 39.8N 121.6W ML=3.0 NEIS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 08Oct2001 05:37:10 41.2N 115.9W ML=4.6 NEIS NEVADA

O: 09OCT2001 14:36:38 33.2N 115.6W ML=2.2 SCSN NNE of Obsidian Butte, CA

O: 09OCT2001 15:30:54 34.0N 120.1W ML=3.2 SCSN NNE of Santa Rosa Is., CA

O: 09OCT2001 17:02:51 34.1N 118.3W ML=2.5 SCSN N of Silver Lake, CA

O: 09OCT2001 7:27:08 34.9N 119.2W ML=1.8 SCSN WNW of Frazier Park, CA

O: 09OCT2001 21:53:39 36.0N 117.8W ML=2.0 NCSN ESE of Coso Junction, CA
O: 9OCT2001 2:50:23 35.8N 118.4W ML=2.1 SCSN N of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 08OCT2001 22:03:59 35.7N 118.4W MC=2.1 SCSN N of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 08OCT2001 22:18:20 35.7N 118.4W MH=2.1 SCSN N of Lake Isabella, CA
O: 9OCT2001 2:27:47 35.8N 118.5W ML=1.9 SCSN SE of Pine Flat, CA

O: 09OCT2001 21:38:55 36.0N 120.6W ML=2.0 NCSN NW of Parkfield, CA

O: 09OCT2001 11:41:47 36.6N 121.2W ML=1.9 NCSN NW of Pinnacles, CA

O: 09OCT2001 19:31:20 37.0N 121.5W ML=2.7 NCSN E of Gilroy, CA
O: 09OCT2001 23:36:04 37.3N 121.5W ML=1.4 NCSN NE of Morgan Hill, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 06OCT2001 10:52:09 48.9N 122.1W ML=2.8 PGC SSE Abbotsford BC

O: 06OCT2001 09:59:14 49.5N 126.9W ML=3.0 PGC WSW Gold R. BC
O: 06OCT2001 09:57:48 49.5N 126.9W ML=2.3 PGC WSW Gold R. BC

O: 09OCT2001 16:12:07 45.8N 122.7W ML=1.8 PNSN SSE of Longview, WA

O: 09OCT2001 9:32:05 48.6N 123.0W ML=1.1 PNSN N of Friday Harbor, WA
O: 09OCT2001 8:45:10 48.2N 122.7W ML=1.1 PNSN SW of Mount Vernon, WA
O: 09OCT2001 09:32:05 48.6N 123.0W ML=1.2 PGC ESE Sidney BC
O: 09OCT2001 08:45:10 48.2N 122.7W ML=1.0 PGC ESE Victoria BC

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 10OCT2001 01:29:10 47.2N 112.6W MD=1.3 MBMG MONTANA

O: 09OCT2001 15:04:34 44.8N 111.4W MD=0.8 MBMG MONTANA

ALASKA

O: 09OCT2001 02:12:10 60.8N 151.8W ML=3.3 AEIC WSW of Anchorage, Alaska
O: 09Oct2001 02:12:10 60.8N 151.7W ML>3.0 NEIS KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA

O: 09OCT2001 04:23:28 57.1N 155.2W ML=3.3 AEIC WSW of Kodiak, Alaska

O: 09OCT2001 20:56:05 59.0N 154.3W ML=3.0 AEIC WSW of Seldovia, Alaska