FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCK FORECAST FOLLOWING KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKES MS 6.6, 6.6
(OCTOBER 08, 2001)

Seismicity is expected to increase in areas where seismic energy
from the great shocks is concentrated due to internal reflections
and refractions of waves off internal boundaries. Following are the
locations and distances where this is expected to occur. Because
of the large magntitude of these events, far-field triggering is
expected to continue for at the next 7 days - i.e. the forecast and
seismic alert for these areas is in effect through 15 October, 2001.

The current parameters for these earthquakes (GSSC) are:

O: 08Oct2001 18:20:34 52.1N 160.2E MS=6.6 GSR OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
O: 08Oct2001 18:14:22 52.5N 160.5E MS=6.6 GSR OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
Note: Parameters are preliminary.

These are the largest earthquakes within 200 km of these epiceners
since March 8, 1999 when a Ms 6.7 occurred. Since 1987 there have been
10 earthquakes of Ms>=6.5 in this area. This followed a period of
21 years (from 1971 - 1992) when there were none.
This is an area where earthquakes of MW>=8 are not uncommon, having
occurred in 1792 (Ms 8.4); 1841 (Ms 8.4); 1899 (Ms 8.0); 1904 (Ms 8.3);
1923 (Ms 8.5); 1952 (Ms 8.5); 1955 (Ms 8.2); and 1959 (Ms 8.3). After
the 1959 event there has been a long period of quiet without such
an event (42 years). Interevent times between active periods in
Kamchatka have been 49, 57, 24, 29, and the current 42-49 years. The
area has probably accumulated sufficient strain since the last event
of Ms>8 that another could hit within several years. So, these
two events may be foreshocks to a great earthquake within several years.

Seismicity is expected to increase in the following areas. Maximum
likely magnitude for these areas is increased 0.75-1.0 unit over previous
estimates.

9-10 degrees: Southern Kurils, Sakhalin, Central Aleutian Islands (about 180W)
17-19 degrees: Fox Islands, Off the East Coast of Honshu
34-36 degrees: Southeast Alaska, Central Marianas, southern Ryukyu Isl.
Yukon Territory, Canada
43-45 degrees: Vancouver Island, Hawaii, Northern Luzon
59-61 degrees: a line from Los Angeles through Utah to Wyoming;
Solomon Isl./New Britain/Papua, West Irian New Guinea, Halmahera,
Celebes Sea, Nepal, Myanmar, No. Afghanistan, Iceland
71-73 degrees: Gulf of California, New Madrid, St. Lawrence Seaway,
Samoa, Fiji, Loyalty/So. Vanuatu Islands, Flores, So. Iran,
U.K., Germany, eastern Turkey, Romania
103-106 degrees***: South Island, N.Z., Colombia, Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, Mid-Atlantic Ridge (around 23N)
142-146 degrees: So. Chile (around 45S), Republic of So. Africa
176-180 degrees: South Atlantic Ocean (Aseismic area 52S 20W) - some
antipodal triggering may occur in the south Atlantic and especially
in the South Sandwich Islands.

*: Indicates a region in which a moderate or large (Mb 4.8-5.5)
earthquake is also forecast based on strain pulse interferences.
***: The strongest triggering is always expected to be along the
shadow zone boundary between 103-107 degrees from the epicenter.

OBSERVED EVENTS FOLLOWING PREVIOUS RECENT (Since 1971) SIMILAR
EARTHQUAKES IN KAMCHATKA

Mar 8, 1999 Mw 6.7

3-09-99 Coast of Oregon 43N 127W 5.0
3-09-99 Halmahera,Indonesia 0S 129E 5.0
3-09-99 Argentina 27S 67W 5.0
3-10-99 Molucca Sea 2N 127E 5.1
3-10-99 N. Mid Atlantic 52N 31W 5.2
3-11-99 Papua New Guinea 9S 150E 5.4
3-11-99 Northeastern China 41N 114E 5.3
3-12-99 Banda 7S 123E 5.2
3-12-99 Gulf of California 22N 107W 5.3
3-12-99 Fiji Islands 20S 177W 5.6
3-12-99 Mammoth Lakes CA 37N 119W 3.5
3-12-99 Chile-Bolivia 19S 68W 5.2
3-13-99 Severnaya Zemlya 85N 85E 5.4
3-13-99 So. California 33N 116W 4.3
3-14-99 So. of Marianas 12N 143E 5.1
3-14-99 E. Coast Honshu 35N 141E 5.1
3-14-99 Samoa 16S 172E 5.4
3-15-99 Xinjiang, China 41N 82W 5.5
3-16-99 Talaud Islands 2N 125W 5.5
3-16-99 E. Coast Honshu 35N 141E 5.1
3-16-99 Gaspe Pen. Canada 49N 66W 5.1
3-16-99 Coast of Oregon 42N 125W 4.3
3-18-99 Molucca Sea 0S 124E 5.8

Jun 1, 1998 Mw 7.9

6-01-98 Western Honshu 34N 136E 5.2
6-02-98 So. Kuril Isl. 44N 149E 5.1
6-02-98 Nicaragua 12S 88W 5.4
6-03-98 N. Mid Atlantic 44N 29W 5.5
6-03-98 Northern Chile 23S 69W 5.1
6-04-98 Iceland 64N 21W 5.4
6-05-98 So. Sandwich Isl 55S 27W 5.2
6-05-98 Balleny Isl. 64S 176E 5.3
6-05-98 Tonga Islands 19S 173W 5.5
6-06-98 Southern Chile 37S 73W 5.3
6-07-98 Argentina 31S 68W 5.9
6-07-98 Chiapas, Mexico 15N 94W 6.3
6-09-98 Mammoth Lakes 37N 119W 4.9
6-09-98 Papua New Guinea 5S 147E 5.2
6-09-98 Tonga Islands 19S 173W 5.5
6-10-98 loyalty Isl. 23S 170E 5.3
6-10-98 No. Luzon 19N 121E 5.4
6-10-98 Southern Iran 28N 59E 5.1
6-10-98 Vanuaut Islands 18S 169E 5.3
6-11-98 Gulf of California 24N 109W 5.3
6-12-98 Papua New Guinea 5S 148E 5.8

Dec 5-6, 1997 Ms 6.6, 6.6

12-06-97 E. Coast Honshu 35N 140E 5.0
12-07-97 E. Coast Honshu 37N 141E 5.4
12-08-97 Vanuatu Islands 14S 167E 5.3
12-08-97 New Britain 6S 148E 5.4
12-09-97 So. California 32N 116W 4.0
12-09-97 Chile-Bolivia 20S 68W 5.8
12-11-97 Colombia 3N 75W 6.4
12-11-97 Molucca Sea 3N 127E 5.6
12-11 97 South of Sumatera 6S 101E 5.1
12-12-97 Tonga Isl. 22S 175W 5.3
12-12-97 Peru 13S 76W 5.4
12-13-97 Pakistan 29N 68E 5.1
12-13-97 Jan Mayen Isl. 71N 8W 5.6
12-14-97 W. Chile Rise 42S 87W 5.7
12-14-97 So. Sandwich Isl. 59S 26W 5.7
12-14-97 Irian Jaya 3S 136E 5.6
12-15-97 Tonga 15S 173W 5.6
12-15-97 Arabian Sea 12N 58E 5.1
12-15-97 New Britain 6S 149E 5.9
12-15-97 Coast No. Calif 40N 124W 4.2
12-16-97 Balleny Islands 65S 163E 5.9
12-16-97 No. Mid-Atlantic 30N 29W 5.5
12-16-97 Guerrero Mexico 16N 99W 6.0
12-17-97 Eastern New Guinea 6S 147E 5.8
12-17-97 Rat Islands, Alas. 51N 178E 6.6
12-17-97 Hindu Kush 36N 71E 6.1

Jun 21, 30, 1996 Ms 6.7, 6.5

6-21-96 Banda Sea 7S 128E 5.3
6-22-96 Bouvet Islands 53S 9E 6.4
6-22-96 Laptev Sea 75N 134E 6.2
6-25-96 Nicobar Islands 8N 94E 5.2
6-25-96 E. Coast Honshu 39N 142E 5.0
6-25-96 No. Chile 24S 69W 5.2
6-25-96 Samar Philippines 13N 125E 5.3
6-26-96 Bonin Islands 27N 140E 6.3, 5.5
6-27-96 N. Isl. N.Z. 38S 177E 5.0
6-27-96 Lake Tahoe, CA 38N 119W 4.3

6-27-96 Fiji Islands 22S 176W 5.4
6-28-96 Tonga 21S 175W 5.3, 5.6
6-28-96 Mindanao 6N 125E 5.5
6-29-96 Irian Jaya 3S 139E 5.9, 5.8
6-30-96 Andreanoff Isl. 52N 177W 5.0
6-30-96 Vanuatu Isl. 14S 166E 5.3
7-02-96 SW Atlantic O. 60S 21W 5.2
7-03-96 Xizang, China 30N 88E 5.7, 5.0
7-03-96 Northern Chile 23S 70W 5.9
7-03-96 E. Coast Honshu 40N 142E 5.3
7-04-96 So. Alaska 62N 151W 5.6
7-04-96 Flores 7S 123E 5.4
7-05-96 Solomon Isl. 10S 161E 5.6
7-06-96 Banda 7S 129E 5.6
7-06-96 Halmahera 2N 128E 5.6
7-06-96 Mariana Isl. 15N 147E 5.4
7-06-96 Mariana Isl. 22N 143E 6.2
7-10-96 Fox Islands 52N 172W 5.9

Nov 13, 1993 Ms 7.0

11-13-93 Loyalty Isl. 22S 169E 5.5
11-14-93 No. Chile 22S 69W 5.8
11-14 93 Central California 36N 120W 4.8 (Parkfield, CA)
11-16-93 So. Quebec, CAN 45N 73W 4.4
11-16-93 Pakistan 30N 67E 5.5
11-17-93 Fox Islands, Al. 52N 169W 5.2
11-19-93 Fox Islands, Al. 54N 164W 6.5
11-20-93 So. Alaska 60N 153W 5.9
11-21-93 W. Chile Rise 35S 102W 5.4
11-21-93 East Coast Honshu 35N 141E 5.1
11-22-93 Mindanao, 6S 126E 5.7
11-22-93 Nicaragua 12S 86W 5.9

Mar 02, 1992 Ms 7.2

03-03-92 Kuril Isl. 44N 149E 5.6
03-03-92 Vanuatu Isl. 14S 167E 5.9
03-03 92 Samoa 16S 173W 5.2
03-04-92 Bismarck Sea 3N 147E 6.4
03-07-92 Costa Rica 10N 84W 6.2
03-08-92 Coast No. California40N 124W 5.3
03-08-92 SW Atlantic O. 58S 10W 5.3
03-09-92 No. California 40N 123W 4.3

03-09-92 Yukon Territory 60N 138W 4.7
03-09-92 East Coast Honshu 34N 139E 5.1
03-11-92 New York 41N 72W 2.8
03-13-92 Eastern Turkey 39N 39E 6.9

In general, the events of Mb>=5 tend to fall in the areas
described by the listing of far-field events expected above
from distance considerations.

The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

East Coast of Honshu
Nicaragua/Costa Rica/Mexico - Oaxaca
Papua, West Irian New Guinea
SW Atlantic Ocean near antipode, esp. So. Sandwich Islands to Bouvet
Molucca Sea/Halmahera

Secondary location where event tend to occur but are not
as large or as likely . MB>=4.8 considered likely in next
10 days.

Kuril Islands
Samoa/Fiji Islands
Loyalty Islands
Vanuatu Islands
Northern Chile/Argentina
Pakistan
Central and northern Mariana Isl.

Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occuR (Ml>=4.5)

Fox Islands/Unimak Islands
Central Aleutians (Rat and Andreanoff Isl.)
Gulf of California

Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occuR (Ml>=3)

Quebec/New England to Gaspe Peninsula
Southern California

Off Coast of Northern California/Oregon

Unusual events may occur in

Iceland
Balleny Islands
North Island, New Zealand
Arctic Ocean north of Siberia