Hi Michael,

Don't fret, Parkfield is absolutely dicey on any given day of any given year, so its always a toss up. Why do you suppose our Parkfield scientific group gave the A Alert only a 37% chance of occurring? If they've got problems, well, what I can say about us?

This is an interesting thought though. You see if you make the prediction and get it it has to be better than random chance, like 80+%, but if they predict it they only have to declare 37% probability. Keep in mind now that with an A Alert the State of California can issue a warning to the public. So it makes me wonder why we have to do far better than them and we aren't even getting paid for it. Does this seem fair?

Furthering that thought, is 37% better than random chance? Seems the State of CA thinks it is, or they wouldn't tell anyone there was any possiblity of it happening.

Now Don can tell you straight away, even he has problems with forecasting for Parkfield, Super Star or not.

My suggestion is to leave Parkfield alone and go onto another area with more promising results. You'll feel better and you won't need any disgusting sandwiches or beer either. You may also keep the close associations you have now. I'm not so sure Don still has his when he's consuming that strange diet. I hope none of his neighbors have a match to close to his house. He could end up out of the picture sooner than you know. LOL

Ah, go for it. Beats sitting around twidling your thumbs and besides, most of the 34 residents of Parkfield do not have the Internet because its horribly expensive. I mean way beyond what you might ever think of paying.

Petra