Posted by mark on September 30, 2001 at 07:09:09:
Todd: re: "Mark: Your post was very very interesting as well. Are you saying that when we drill for the water, move it, ad it, whatever, this may cause a micro quake? Or are you saying once it is added or subtracted it mathmatically does some weight pressure on surrounding faults leading to the smaller quakes." + I believe I read somewhere that somebody thought that water acted as a fault lubricant which encouraged an earthquake to happen which may otherwise not have happened. I believe this is incorrect. I'm hesitant again to go into great detail about my thinking in this matter since a publication might just be in the works...also I hate to be a "knowledge tease". Having said that, I will now convey some thoughts which just might be(come) true ( my 2 cents worth...). Water has a most serious impact on whether a quake happens in a particular location. If what is in the works turns out to be "on target" then water pumping in the LA basin will become a highly regulated and timed event. In addition, and I know this may sound extreme and possibly hard to believe, but lethal force may conceivably be authorized to control (unauthorized where and when) water pumping activities. This idea is similar to the idea of having the military shoot down a hijacked airliner which is headed for a big city.... I'm "peddling as fast as I can" on this thinking and the method of conveying it. If it all pans out, and there are some heavy duty "dots being connected"...then accurate short-term prediction of some earthquakes (including magnitude estimates) may very well become routine. All of specific data types needed to predict quakes is not being collected and must be inferred from other data (which is a study in and of itself). Anyway, based on this thinking and data inferences, the risk for a high magnitude quake in LA proper has increased recently. Mags could go above M5s...but the window for this appears to be short (<48 hrs from now). Meantime, I would suggest that whomever is pumping ground water in and around LA proper should HALT all activity for a period of 48 hours starting right now. A pub. explaining everything in gory detail is in the works so.... I believe it may trigger a flurry of activity in one area in particular. Of note is that the $'s for new strain gages and seismic gear will probably be immediately redirected to a new sensor form which is available but which is not being used. Initial set-up of this sensor system will likely be LA proper first .... Now...I'm sure some will read this and think that it sounds like science fiction...and it may well end up being that way...but I don't think so. In any case, I hope that gives you an inkling of the importance of water in earthquakes...which is just one of many factors. If you continued reading down this far and wish to ponder something further about this (while awaiting a full explantion) you might want to do some follow up in a couple of areas: 1) ref LA basin water ops: - Has a list of who is pumping water and when they are pumping and how much been compiled ? 2) What is the ground water flow map in the LA basin ? Same for LA proper? 3) What is the impact when pumping ops are halted for certain periods of time (up to a month or so?) 3) Theory: - What exactly is "water"...and are you sure you know evrything there is to know about it? Sorry about the cryptic clue(s). As fast as I'm peddling I think I can get a pub out in the not too distant future. The conditions for a larger magnitude earthquake event has recently increased so be prepared if you live in the area. It appears to recede in less than 48 hours from now.... One other thing, most all of the information needed to "connect the dots" on breaking this earthquake puzzle wide-open is on the internet. I suggest that a properly incentivized creative thinker...given the time and opportunity will likewise make the linkages that I have made...all of which can be specifically scientifically tested and either refuted or accepted. I don't know what Sherlock Holmes said when he made a discovery but I'm sure I've said something along the same lines...(right or wrong). Anyway, I hope I have raised your awareness a little about how,IMO, water pumping is Not a casual activity in the LA basin...(and that a fuller explanation is in the works). mark
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