PROTON STORM TO CEASE; SEISMICITY EXPECTED TO RISE

SUMMARY

The strong proton storm event which began two days ago is expected
to come to an end tonight or tomorrow. Seismicity, including the
possibility of a moderate or large global event is expected to
increase to upper moderate or moderately high levels in the next
two days.

GLOBAL

It was a moderate day in global seismicity. NEIS reported 4 events
of Mb>=4.5 through 12:00 UT. These occurred in Kashmir (Mb 5.2);
Tonga Islands (Mb 4.8); Off the Coast of Central America (MB 4.8)
and in western Australia (Mb 4.7). Several events have occurred
late in the day, however, so seismicity does appear to be on the
rise at this writing.

Unusual earthquakes occurred in the Dominican Republic (Mb 4.2)
and in western Australia (Mb 4.8, 3.0).
The Ml 4.8 in Australia is the largest event recorded within 200
km of this epicenter since October 11, 1979 when a 5.0 occurred
in the vicinity. This had been an aftershock of a Mb 6.2 on June 2, 1979,
one of the largest earthquakes ever recorded in western Australia.

U.S./CANADA

The strongest earthquake of the past 24 hours in the U.S/Canada
region occurred in western Wyoming, south of Yellowstone Park (MB 4.3).
Only five other events of ML>=4 have been recorded within 50 km
of this epicenter. It is the largest earthquake in this area since
Dec. 28, 1993 and the second largest ever recorded in the region.
The last event of ML>=4 in the area occurred on June 20, 1998.
In the eastern section, a Ml 2.8 was recorded near Madoc, Canada.
This was also a rare earthquake, the largest within 50 km of this
epicenter since Jan 22, 1997 (Ml 2.9) and the second largest since
Jan 1, 1965 (Ml 2.9). Only 3 events within 50 km have surpassed
today's in magnitude - the third being on July 10, 1888 (Ml 3.0).
The swarm near Spokane, Washington, also resumed today after
a nearly 2 month quiet in the region. The largest of the earthquakes
in this swarm today was a Ml 2.8.
No earthquakes of Ml>=3 were reported from the California/Nevada
region today. The region around L.A. continued to be active
with 4 microearthquakes near Castaic Lake Dam (Ml 1.8); Fullerton (Ml 1.9);
Monterey Park (Ml 1.8) and Chatsworth (Ml 1.7). Earthquakes of Ml>=2
occurred in southern California near Ludlow (Ml 2.0) and Big Bear (Ml 2.4);
in Central California near Los Altos (Ml 2.0); and in northern California near
Blue Lake (Ml 2.1) and the Geysers (Ml 2.2). The Coso Junction
region saw a swarm of 7 events the largest of which was a Ml 2.3.
A minor swarm began in the Mammoth Lakes region this afternoon, but
has not included any events of Ml>2 thus far. Mammoth Lakes
often reacts to strong geomagnetic storms with increased seismicity.
Two earthquake of Ml>3 were recorded in the southern Alaska
area near Anchorage, this is not unusual.

NEW ZEALAND

It is the weekend and IGNS offices are closed, so no reports
were issued today from New Zealand, however, the on-line seismometer
shows many light to moderate earthquakes in the region today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained quiet today, however SEC expects
slightly active conditions throughout the weekend. Moderate
M3.3 and M 2.4 class flares were observed this morning with
the following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS
9310 0810 0830 0910 M3.3
9320 0934 1014 1050 M2.4

A Ml 1.5 occurred near the start of the first flare (at 8:12 UT).
The second flare was simultaneous with a minor swarm in Coso Junction
region.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20010928events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

The only hurricane currently affecting the Atlantic/North American
region is Hurricane Juliette. Juliette made landfall today as a
Category 1 hurricane at the southern tip of Baja California. It is
expected to diminish rapidly in intensity over the next several days.
The landfall tends to add push to the Pacific plate increasing
the potential of a light to moderate earthquake along regional
strike-slip faults in the California region. Maximum likely
earthquakes along the San Andreas fault zone are thus expected to increase
by up to 0.5 units for the next two days.
For tracking information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/ep200111.html