PREDICTION - Sonora, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on September 26, 2001 at 11:44:58:

Magnitude: 1.3-3.2
From: 09/29/2001PDT - To: 10/04/2001PDT
Location: Sonora, California
Lat: 38.0N - Long: 120.6W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. Having had my daily ration of raw onion and garlic sandwich with a Corona Beer chaser I have taken up the task of finding a place for a quake where for the most part they do not occur all to often.

This will be in the Melones Fault Zone, which is located in the Foothills Fault System on the eastern side of the San Joaquin Valley. To the best of my knowledge these faults are not considered inactive, but very little is known about them. They are considered Pre-Quaternary faults (older then 1.6 million years) or a fault without recognized Quaternary displacement. According to the NEIC catalog the most recent one was a 2.8Md on 07/18/1993 at 37.93N/120.27W. This is about 10Km SE of Sonora, California.

The quake I’m looking for is about 18Km west of Sonora, California at 38.0N/120.6W. It should be in the 1.3-3.1Md range on 10/01/2001. The odds of this quake occurring range from bad to lousy. The reason being is the amount of stress in the area is unknown. Without that knowledge there is no guarantee that the quake will occur. The window opens on 09/29/2001 and will close on 10/04/2001. The radius on this is 40Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town