Posted by Lowell on September 22, 2001 at 00:14:20:
Don -- Just thought I would point out an earthquake which comes somewhat close to matching your Vancouver Island Advisory posted on Sept. 17, 2001 (Post # 9506). You said: "Vancouver Advisement Posted by Don In Hollister on September 17, 2001 at 23:01:10: Hi Petra and Lowell. Thank you for the Kudos. I know this may look and sound like a forecast/prediction and I suppose in some ways it is, but I still prefer to call it an advisement. The reason being is that unlike a forecast I can change this as more data becomes available. Most of the activity in that area off of Vancouver suggests it may be volcanic, but some of the larger quakes have the signature of a strike-slip fault so in that department it is still uncertain as to what is occurring there, or what might occur. Quakes in the range of 4.0 to 5.5Mb can occur at any time in that area, but one particular area and date have me a little concerned. The area is 49.5N/130.4W. This is about 630Km NW of Olympia, Washington. The most probable date is 09/22/2001. The catch here is if there is a geomagnetic storm one or two days before the above date the quake could be at least one full magnitude stronger. There is also the chance it could occur early. Anyway this is getting to be a very interesting area to watch. Take Care...Don in creepy town" The Canadian Network PGC is reporting the following event which occurred on 21 September, 2001: 2001/09/21 12:27:53 50.45N 130.11W 10F 2.7 193 km W Pt. Hardy BC This is the first event of Ml>=2.7 in the region between 49-50N 130-131W since August 13 when a Ml 2.9 occurred. There have been 6 events in the past 120 days of Ml>=2.7 so the probability of an event of this size on any given day is about 0.05. In a two day period this is about 0.1. Odds of a chance success is about 1 in 10.
Question: Do you think this is the event you were anticipated, or is there another on the way? Data Source: http://www.pgc.nrcan.gc.ca/seismo/recent/wc.50evt.list.html
Follow Ups:
● Re: Don's most recent Vancouver advisory - Petra Challus Don Eck 00:45:23 - 9/22/2001 (9578) (0)
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