Hi All,
I'm trying to catch up this weekend on some of the prediction evaluation
I have been not getting done over the past week or more. By the way, if
I have missed evaluating any predictions made to this board, please let me
know, I want to be fair to all.

GREECE:

The earthquake in Greece is first.
NOA and THE are giving the following parameters to this event:

2001/09/16 02:00:49.0 37.3N 21.8E Ml4.7 M THE SOUTHERN GREECE
2001/09/16 02:00:48.4 37.3N 21.9E MD4.7 M NOA SOUTHERN GREECE
Don's Forecast
8-24 to 9-1 2001 36.9N 21.7E 3.5-4.5 Southern Greece
The earthquake occurred about 45 km from the predicted epicenter, but
was more than 2 week late and slightly larger than predicted.

See:
http://www.emsc-csem.org/cgi-bin/ALERT_all_messages.sh?1

NEIS gives this Mb 5.2 and it looks like the Ms will be larger than
this. My earlier posting gives the probability of such an event within
100 km of this epicenter, which is pretty low even over a month-long
period.
The only prediction for Greece had been made by Don as follows:

Re: Greece and the New Zealand far-field aftershock forecast (Post # 9031)
Posted by Don In Hollister on August 23, 2001 at 10:08:27:

In Reply to: Greece and the New Zealand far-field aftershock forecast posted
by G.Chouliaras on August 23, 2001 at 09:26:26:

Don had expected an event of M 3.5-4.5 on 29 of August (8/24-9/01) within
80 km of 36.9N 21.7E. Several events occurred in the Ionian Sea following
his forecast which were in the A- to B forecast grade range.

Since 1990 10 days have had earthquakes which have occurred within 100 km
of this epicenter of Mb>=5.0. This is about 1 per year or on a given day,
a probability of around 0.0025 per day or in a 20 day period about
0.05. The odds of correctly guessing the occurrence of such an earthquake
within 20 days is therefore about 1 in 20. Not bad, even by Don's standards.

VANCOUVER ISLAND EVENT:

The second was not really a prediction, but an advisement. Don had
suggested that the swarm of earthquakes south of Vancouver Island
was likely to see a major (generally regarded as any event of Mw>=6)
earthquake between the 16th and 20th of September. No indication of
a major event was present when Don made his advisement, the largest
event in the swarm had been a Mb 5.0 to that time.

NEIS reported the following event yesterday:

01/09/14 04:45:11 48.97N 128.29W 10.0 6.0M A VANCOUVER ISL, CANADA REGION
Don's Advisement had been:
Sept 16-20 2001 48.78N 128.64W major (Mw>=6) Middle Valley So. Vancouver
The event occurred about half a day after Don posted his advisory about
40 km from the predicted epicenter and with a magnitude of 6 or greater
but was 2 days earlier than expected.

There have been 11 events of Mw>=6 within 100 km of Don's predicted
epicenter since 1900 - about 1 every 10 years, however 4 have occurred
since 1980. The last such event was on January 11, 2001 with Mw 6.1.
In recent times, the average is about 1 such event every 5 years. Incidentally,
this is the first time that less than 2 years has expired between two
such earthquakes, so these do not occur in pairs or swarms at this
magnitude level. The daily probability of such an event is about
0.0005 or in a 10 day period about 0.005. Therefore the odds of a
correct guess of a major earthquake within 100 km of this epicenter
is about 1 in 180. So much for the argument that Don can't predict
the "big ones".

"Advisement, Increased Quake Activity (Post #9438)
Posted by Don In Hollister on September 13, 2001 at 11:49:54:

Hi All. Lets just call this an advisement. After going through the data I have
and some new data that I found today I feel that it would only be prudent to
issue a warning for the area about 256Km off the coast of Northern Washington
to the northern tip of Graham Island. 47.9N/129.3W to 54.0N/132.5W for a
distance of 715Km (444 miles.)

The general location to watch though (48.78N, 128.64W or 48 46.7'N; 128 38.6'W)
is on the eastern edge of a large sedimented feature called Middle Valley and
is about 360Km off the coast from Victoria.

There has been a marked increase in activity in and around the above location.
This increase appears to be associated with the Nootka fault and Juan de Fuca
volcanic system, which results in a diffuse triple junction with complex stress
fields.

The most probable dates for a major quake (if there is to be one) are between
09/16/2001 and 09/20/2001.

Please keep in mind that this is only an advisement and the above dates are
only ones of many other probable dates.
Take Care...Don in creepy town"

EARTHQUAKES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

Martinez, California +2 Earthquake Forecast (Post #9407)
Posted by Don In Hollister on September 10, 2001 at 20:49:50:

The time window on two of these three events has not yet expired and
will not be evaluated until the time does expire, however,
the largest earthquake of the day in California (on September 15, 2001)
occurred today with the following (NCSN) parameters:

01/09/15 12:53:02 38.8N 122.7W 2.7 2.6Md A* 6 km E of The Geysers, CA
Don had predicted:
01/09/15 (09/13-18) 38.9N 122.7W 2.3-3.5ML 10 mi SW of Clear Lake CA
This event is less than 10 km from the predicted epicenter, on the
predicted day and within the predicted magnitude range. All parameters
are correct.

Don's complete prediction for this event:

" A 2.3-3.5Ml at 38.9N/122.7W (10 miles SW of Clear Lake, California) on
09/15/2001. Window opens on 09/13/2001 and closes on 09/18/2001.
The radius on all quakes is 40Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town"

WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER REGION:

Amboy, Washington Earthquake Forecast (Post # 9286)
Posted by Don In Hollister on September 05, 2001 at 23:04:28:

PNSN has recorded a swarm of earthquakes in the Mt. Hood region
over the past several days. PNSN gives the following events occurring
in the region during September:

O: 07SEP2001 4: 6:38 46.9N 121.9W ML=0.1 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 08SEP2001 19:45: 6 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.3 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 08SEP2001 22:23:14 46.4N 122.3W ML=0.8 PNSN MT. ADAMS, WASHINGTON
O: 09SEP2001 22:32:58 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.4 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 09SEP2001 22:33:45 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.9 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 10SEP2001 8:16:25 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.3 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 10SEP2001 9:55:62 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.3 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 10SEP2001 10:12:61 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.5 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 10SEP2001 14: 2:13 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.1 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 10SEP2001 15:47:34 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.1 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 11SEP2001 8:40:30 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.4 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 11SEP2001 10: 5:53 46.0N 121.9W ML=0.1 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 11SEP2001 10:49:47 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.8 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 11SEP2001 13: 2:47 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.3 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 11SEP2001 23:28:49 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.9 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 11SEP2001 23:47:65 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.7 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 4:36:92 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.4 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 6:57:52 45.3N 121.7W ML=1.5 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 7:34:71 46.2N 122.1W ML=0.2 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 7:38: 7 46.5N 122.4W ML=1.5 PNSN MT ADAMS, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 12:29: 4 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.6 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 15:22:53 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.1 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 17:32:60 46.3N 122.1W ML=0.9 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 20:38:21 45.3N 121.7W ML=2.0 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 20:39:12 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.0 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 20:41:56 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.3 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 20:44:49 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.8 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 21:26:13 45.3N 121.7W ML=1.3 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 21:26:43 45.3N 121.7W ML=2.3 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 22:21:38 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.4 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 23:16:31 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.9 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 12SEP2001 23:57:17 45.3N 121.8W ML=0.9 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 13SEP2001 3:23:50 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.5 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 13SEP2001 5:23: 8 45.3N 121.7W ML=1.8 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 13SEP2001 10:57:57 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.2 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 13SEP2001 12:11:41 45.3N 121.7W ML=1.5 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 13SEP2001 12:11:58 45.3N 121.7W ML=1.1 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 13SEP2001 17: 1:34 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.4 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 10:52:14 45.3N 121.7W ML=2.1 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 11: 1:51 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.6 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 11:22:57 45.3N 121.7W ML=2.9 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 11:27:28 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.9 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 11:35:20 45.3N 121.7W ML=1.0 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 12: 0:29 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.9 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 12: 3:25 45.3N 121.7W ML=0.6 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 12: 7:57 45.3N 121.7W ML=1.0 PNSN MT HOOD, WASHINGTON
O: 14SEP2001 13: 6:45 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.6 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
Don's Prediction:
Sept. 8-13 45.9N 122.1W within 40 km Amboy, Washington
The prediction was correct in time (note that the prediction was made
on September 5, the Mt. Hood swarm began on September 7, one day
earlier than expected. The swarm continued throughout the predicted
interval. The events are occuring about 60 km from the predicted
epicenter, although the Mt. St. Helens swarm is within the 40 km
distance.
The Mt. Hood swarm has included events of Ml 2.9, 2.1, 2.3 and 2.0.
The last event of Ml 2.9 or greater within 60 km of these epicenters
occurred on January 14, 1999. Only one event of Ml>=2.3 had occurred
in this region since August 16, 2000 when a Ml 2.3 occurred. Three
events of Ml 2.3 have occurred in the region since Feb. 15, 1999.
So the background rate in the predicted magnitude range is about 0.003
events of Ml>=2.3 per day (or about 1 chance in 50 of a correct guess
within a 6-day interval).

Don's orignial prediction had been:

" From: 09/08/2001PDT - To: 09/13/2001PDT
Location: Amboy, Washington
Lat: 45.9N - Long: 122.1W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. Going out on a limb with this one. Looking for a 2.1-3.7Md at
45.9N/122.1W. This is about 16 miles east of Amboy, Washington. Should occur
on 09/10/2001. Window opens on 09/08/2001 and closes on 09/13/2001. Radius
on this is 40Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town"

Well, that should bring us pretty much up to date on Don's predictions -
sorry to be so late in getting around to this.