Don, you've been out on some pretty sturdy limbs lately, so I'm not betting
against you this time. But just so you don't need three hats to cover your
head, I'm going to throw a little cold water on you (cold water has a
tendency to shrink things).

Remember that prediction you "went out on a limb" on for Montana - the one you
and Petra had a contest between Kalispell and Helena on. Well, here are the
results now that the Montana data is available.

Your prediction was (#9038 in archives):

"Kalispell, Montana Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on August 23, 2001 at 13:44:59:

Magnitude: 2.9-4.1
From: 08/27/2001PDT - To: 09/01/2001
Location: Kalispell, Montana
Lat: 48.2N - Long: 114.5W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. I think I'm going out on a limb again. There is a chance of a
2.9 to 4.1Ml at 48.2N/114.5W on 08/29/2001. This is about 10 miles west of
Kalispell, Montana. Window opens on 08/27/2001 and closes on 09/01/2001.
Radius is 40Km. Take Care... Don in creepy town"

The Montana Bureau of Mines is now reporting the following event:

01SEP2001 04:38:12 47.93N 114.28W ML=1.7 MBMG NW of Polson, MT

This event is 33 km from your predicted epicenter, within the time
window of your prediction and near the town (Kalispell MT is at 48.2N
114.3W). But the magnitude of this event falls short of your prediction.
Because magnitude is important, this prediction gets a paltry B+.

Probabilities:

There have been 10 events of Ml 1.7 or greater which match your
prediction since 1-1-2001, so the background rate is about 0.04.
Your prediction covered a period of 6 days, so the chances of getting
a Ml 1.7 or greater in your time window is about 0.04X6 = 0.24.
Odds of 1 in 4 of a correct prediction by guessing. Better than
random, but not as good as most of your predictions, Don.

Petra's prediction had been (#9065 in archives):

"Re: Helena MT Forecast
Posted by Petra Challus on August 23, 2001 at 21:44:34:
Hi Lowell,

This forecast is the same as Don's, ie window and magnitude, however using
a circular radius of within 20 miles of the City of Helena, MT.

Though some may not remember that Helena MT has had a serious earthquake
past, I'm attaching a link which provides first hand accounts of several
quakes which occurred in Helena. Truly worthy of reading.

So, Don's up one chicken dinner, and this one will either have him cooking
me steak or I providing another chicken dinner. But instead of Chicken I
think I'll make the ultimate sacrifice and offer a homemade Enchilada
dinner instead of chicken, so if it goes his way, he'll enjoy the variety
of foods I can prepare.

Petra"

Helena, Montana is listed in the Atlas as at 46.6N 112.0W. Petra's
20 miles is 33 km radius for a Ml 2.9-4.1 earthquake between 8/27 and 9/1,
2001.
The closest earthquake to Helena listed by the MBMG earthquake listing
during the predicted window has the following parameters:

01/08/28 03:21:36 46.32N 111.42W ML=2.6 NE of Townsend; Felt

This was the first event felt in Montana since June. The earthquake lies
55 km from Helena, well outside of Petra's distance range and is of
lower magnitude than her magnitude window. However, credit must be
given since it was a significant regional event - the first felt in
the state in several months. Grade B+

Probabilities:

This was the largest event within 55 km of the predicted location
since March 24, 2001 when a Ml 2.8 occurred. No other events occurred
in the region of greater or equal magnitude during 2001. So the
probability of a correct random "guess" for this earthquake
is approximately 0.004 per day or within a 6-day period about 0.024
or odds of about 1 in 41.

Since Petra's probability of being correct by random chance
is about 10 times less than yours, the winner of the contest
must be Petra. I guess you knew that as you have already served
up the steak. But I just wanted to make it official.