Mike,
See my post above. The search was done for anything of 2.5<=ML<=4.0 within
40 km of the predicted epicenter. Four days were found to contain such events
in the first 9 months of 2001 - Jan 14 (Ml 4.0, 4.3), April 19 (Ml 3.2), April30 (Ml 2.7)
and May 3 (Ml 2.7) , a background rate of about one such event every 2.5 months
or a daily probability of such an event of 0.016 - or within 6 days a probability
of about 0.10 (odds of 1 in 10 for a correct "guess").
By the way aftershocks are continuing this morning in the region with earthquakes
of Ml 1.5, 1.7, 1.7 and 1.9 so the sequence may not be over yet.

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