Hello Nathan,

Statistical probabilities are always something considered when delivering a "valid" earthquake prediction, however, more often than not of late one can find that very often those area's with low probability ratings are the ones having the most recent earthquakes.

The San Francisco Bay Area probabilities for a 3.0 earthquake as I believe, is one every 18 days and yet I can tell you most certainly they are much further apart than that. So if I tell you a 3.0 is coming and one arrives the probabilities are very high and yet if you haven't had one in two months, you are still not given any credit for saying one is coming and it arrived.

However, today this is what we have to work with, so we use it, whether it is a correct method or not.

Welcome aboard the train that is slowly moving down the track to finding success one day..Pat