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Re: Dennis & His Signals
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Posted by Alan Jones {AlanJones[010AT21]stny[10DOT210]rr.com} on October 21, 1999 at 14:34:18:
Like Roger, I see no bickering. When Dennis, or anyone else, makes a prediction that specifies the space window, the magnitude window, and the time window, I am able to compute the probability that at least one event will occur by chance in his window. If it does, he gets a hit. If not, he doesn't. Again, like Roger, if this is a fan club, I'll drop out. Also, as I've indicated, I will post how I do the evaluations. But let me emphasize, when someone is making predictions, you don't evaluate their success just by counting hits. I could predict a magnitude 2.5 for California every day and probably get a hit most days. To see if one has "skill" one must evaluate against chance -- in statistics called the null hypothesis.
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