A moderate earthquake (Mb 4.8-5.0) occurred in the Kermadec Islands
on August 4, 2001 (NEIS, NOR). This area had been subject to a
prediction by Don (#8654), posted on 26 July, 2001 to this board
as follows:

"Kernadec Islands Forecast
Posted by Don in Hollister on July 26, 2001 at 16:17:51:

Magnitude: 6.0Mb+
From: 07/29/2001 - To: 08/04/2001
Location: Kermadec Islands
Lat: 28.5S - Long: 178.5W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. The old tummy is really acting up today. Not sure why as I
haven't had my usual raw onion and garlic sandwich with a bottle of
Corona Beer.

Looking for something in the area of Kermadec Islands 28.5S/178.5W
with a 40Km radius from 07/29/2001 to 08/04/2001.

The magnitude on this one depends a lot on the most recent geomagnetic
storm. It could very well go above 6.0Mb so lets just leave it at that.
Take Care...Don in creepy town."

The current NEIS parameters for this event are:

04Aug2001 00:33:50.8 28.3S 179.4W400 MB=4.8 M NEI KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

This is about 80 km from Don's predicted epicenter, falls within
the time window, but is smaller than the event Don anticipated.
The statement that the magnitude would depend on a geomagnetic
storm, however suggested that the magnitude would be lower if
there were no geomagnetic storm (implied, in my view).

So, while Don has had better, this prediction does deserve a B grade.
Better luck next time Don.

• NEIS earthquake data