Hi Mark,

Ref: "One final point is that this person would have to work without being funded since no USGS/NSF source would consider any large stake in this area since "it can't be done"....

This is one area of expertise that I possess in that I can tell you from my personal experience, "it can be done." Money has already been ruled out in my book as a potential problem.
You absolutely do not need federal funding in order to have a private prediction research facility. The most efficient way is to create a non-profit organization. Believe it or not, other non-profit organizations exist which will also offer funding to perspective non-profits.

The type of arrangement provides full command of those who wish to work on a prediction project, with no outside interference from government sponsored programs. If one is to realize that there is plenty of money to be donated to something that is a tax deductible facility, you can then realize that the mogels of the money houses know full well, they can be part and parcel of something that has seriously wonderful expectations in high performance, new programs that will advance seismic sciences and something they can invest in without worry. Divestiture of the money can also bring fruitful rewards in making that capital grow. Public high tech stocks are money makers.

Or you can do it the hard way. Ask 11 people to write grants for $100,000 each, and that's all you need to get a firm start on a reseach project begging to receive the light of day and one day success beyond common expectations.

Earthquake forecasting can in time have a life that is private, respectible and brought about by those who wish to further those efforts by fund raising, so the scientists can do this very rewarding work.

By far, not impossible today or anytime in the immediate or long term future. It only takes a little charisma, sales abilitiy and contacts with those who like to fund science projects.

Petra