Well, the first horse out of the gate, "Don's GUT", in the race
to get the next earthquake after Kansas seems to have quite a head-start.

Don's Prediction was (#8630 below posted 14:40 24 July, 2001):

"
Earthquake Forecast For New York
Posted by Don in Hollister on July 24, 2001 at 14:40:14:

Magnitude: 1.5/3.0Mn
From: 07/26/2001PST - To: 08/03/2001
Location: Purdys Mill, New York
Lat: 44.8N - Long: 73.7W - Range: 80Km

Hi Lowell. You're very subtle in your challenges aren't you? Okay I'll take a
crack at it. Mind you my tummy is on the mend so I'm going to fudge a little
on this one.

Lets say 1.5 to 3.0Mn at 44.8N/73.7W. That makes it about 2 miles SW of
Purdys Mill, New York or almost due west of Jericho, New York. Lets say on
07/28/2001. Window opens on 07/26/2001 closes on 08/03/2001. I'm going to
use an 80Km radius on this one."

Today (25 July, 2001), the Canadian Geological Survey posted the
following earthquake. You can compare these details with Don's
forecast below:
MON DA YEAR HR MN SC LAT LONG DEPTH MAG SRC LOCATION
GSC JUL 24 2001 14:42:48 45.2N 73.9W 18.0g 2.3MN 17 km E from Salaberry-de-Val
leyfield, Quebec
DON JUL 26-AUG 03 2001 44.8N 73.7W 1.5-3.0 MN Upstate New York

For Canadian listing see:
http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/eqmaplist_e.html?name=east_e.txt

Don's prediction is two days early, but within 40 km latitude and
15 km longitude of the stated epicenter (45 km between predicted epicenter
and the located earthquake, well within the 80 km zone)
and the magnitude of Mn 2.3 lies midway in his expected magnitude
range (1.5-3.0). Note also the coincidental time of the post (14:40 on 24
July) with the time of the earthquake (14:42 on 24 July). The first
listing of this earthquake occurred on 25 July, hours after Don's
prediction was issued, so it is a valid prediction.

A search of the Canadian database shows this is the largest earthquake
in this general region since Feb 27, 2001 when a Ml 2.8 occurred near
Ormstown, Quebec.

You can do searches of the Canadian Database at:
http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/nedb/eq_db_e.html

I guess competition brings out the best in Don. This'll be tough
to beat - good luck to the other predictors.

• Eastern Canada Earthquakes