Just a preliminary note on Don's predictions which were posted
for this time on June 23, 2001 on this board (#8172 in Archives below)

PANGUITCH, UTAH

For the occurrence of an event in the Panguitch area of Utah
the prediction was:

"Prediction
Posted by Don in Hollister on June 26, 2001 at 23:34:40:

Hi All. The old tummy was growling tonight. At first I thought it might be beca
use I was hungry, but that wasn't the case.

For the Utah quake the window starts on the 17th and ends on the 22nd.

37.0N 112.3W 7 19 2001 1.5-3.0 Hatch/Panguitch area, UT"

UUSN is reporting today an earthquake in the Panguitch area which
occurred on July 17 with Ml 2.1 as follows:

37.8N 112.4W 7 17 2001 ML=2.1 8 km NNE of Panguitch, UT

This is the first event listed by UUSN as near Panguitch since
Don's prediction. Since July, 2000 only 5 events have been listed
in the area with Ml>=2.0, 4 of which were larger than the even
on the 17th. Four earthquakes of any magnitude have occurred in
the area since 1-1-2001. The chances of guessing within two days the
occurrence of a Ml>=1.5 event in the Panguitch, UT area are, therefore,
about 1 in 25, as the daily probability is about 0.02. This event
lies slightly outside the acceptable distance range but is correct
in all other parameters - grade A-

For Utah Quake listing see:
http://www.quake.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

There was also a second predition recorded in that set - for
the region of Northern California. Don's prediction was:

"For the Dunsmuir/McCloud/Shasta quake the window opens on the 16 and closes
on the 21st. There is a 40Km radius for both quakes.

40.9N 122.4W 7 18 2001 2.5-3.5 Dunsmuir/McCloud/Shasta, CA

NCSN is reporting the following event today (18 July, 2001)

40.6N 122.2W 7 18 2001 MD=2.3 19 km E. of Redding, CA

This event is on the day predicted, within 40 km of the predicted
epicenter (35 km away) and within 0.2 units of the predicted magnitude
range. A good hit, grade A-.

For No. California quake listing see:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/quake.geo.berkeley.edu/name=quake

• Northern California earthquake listing