Petra and Don,

As I have mentioned before, I totally agree with what you guys think is cooking up there w/ the Rodger's Creek fault. However, lately I'm begining to question the timing. For awhile I too was convinced that area was going to see something...soon!

But I've been doing a lot of research on time vs. large quakes in CA and I have found some intersting points of interest. First, I've noticed, even when big quakes do occur in clusters, they are still many years apart. Personally for me, when I look at quakes that occured in the early part of the century and through out the 1800s, the evidence looks so compelling, one here, another there, etc. But then you have to snap out of it remind yourself that none of us were even living back then and look at the number of years that had passed. In human years it is a lot! In geologic, I know, very little. Case in point, I read a paper recently on the web saying that the 1933 Long Beach quake might have spurred the 71 San Fernado quake. Nothing in geologic time, but half a lifetime for us mortals.

So what I guess I'm saying is this. I do agree that every time you guys post about this quake or that quake being a precursor to a bigger one in the N. Bay, I agree 110%. But now I'm thinking it maybe further in the future than we think. The science community is warning of a warm up of large quakes to come in the Bay Area. But I give it another 5-10 years before we see another 6+ and it most likely will start w/ the Rodger's Creek. I think there will be another 5 or 2 up there in Petra's area before then. If we fast forward 100 years and look at the bigger Bay Area quakes the cluster will be clear, 80,84,89 say 09, 12, etc. it will look very clustered and a lot for the time period to those observing that were not living now. But to us, I think we have some time to hang out between these bigger shakers.

Sorry to ramble, your posts bring out the thought provoking thoughts in me. :)

Todd