Peru probabilities
Posted by Roger Hunter on July 10, 2001 at 10:47:28:

This is very preliminary and incomplete because I did the data search wrong and got 2.5Mb of quakes anyway!

I did a circle search of the NEIC data for 1990 - 2000 centered on 17.5S 71.4W. Then I determined the probability of a quake of any size in the 9 to 10 degree ring within a 10 day window.

It turned out to be 36.3%

There are 402 windows, 213 quakes contained in 146 of the windows. 146/402 = 0.363

I'm out of time right now but I'll continue this later. Have I done anything wrong so far?

Roger

Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Peru probabilities - Lowell  12:08:41 - 7/10/2001  (8433)  (2)
        ● larger mag. results - Roger Hunter  06:24:51 - 7/11/2001  (8443)  (1)
           ● Ascension Island earthquake 7-12-01 - Lowell  00:29:07 - 7/12/2001  (8460)  (0)
        ● Re: Peru probabilities - Roger Hunter  21:44:24 - 7/10/2001  (8439)  (1)
           ● Re: Peru probabilities - Lowell  20:21:54 - 7/11/2001  (8448)  (1)
              ● Re: Peru probabilities - Roger Hunter  21:49:19 - 7/11/2001  (8450)  (1)
                 ● Re: Peru probabilities - Lowell  22:05:25 - 7/11/2001  (8452)  (0)