Recommended Forecasting Guidelines –December 5, 2012

There have been quite a few civil wars or flame wars in messages posted to the EarthWaves board over the years. That is both unnecessary and counterproductive. It can slow, stop, or even drive earthquake forecasting progress into reverse.

This is a general discussion regarding how more rapid earthquake forecasting progress might be made.

FIRST TOPIC - Who Is Qualified To Do Earthquake Forecasting Research?

Anyone who knows anything about science or who has access to accurate forecasting information is in theory qualified to do earthquake forecasting research.

However, the people who would ordinarily be best qualified to do that type of work are scientists who have a Bachelor’s degree in one of the physical sciences and a second Masters degree or Ph.D., also in one of the physical sciences.

That second degree provides the person with the certified ability to do research. And so someone with a Masters degree or Ph.D. in biology, chemistry, or physics for example is supposed to have the necessary training to do original research work in any of the physical sciences including astronomy, geology, meteorology, etc.

It could take a researcher with an advanced degree in biology a while to do all of the reading necessary to begin doing expert work in geology. But that should eventually be possible. When you learn how to do research in any of the physical sciences you basically learn how to do research in all of them.

Whether or not a specific person with an advanced degree in one of the physical science is able to do research outside his or her original area of expertise is also dependent on that person’s individual abilities. In some cases a specific individual doing biology research simply is not able to do research in physics. His or her brains is just not wired for physics. And the reverse can be true. But those instances are probably relatively infrequent.

SECOND TOPIC – Recognizing Accurate Earthquake Forecasting Data

This is probably the main reason there have been so many civil wars and flame wars in the EarthWaves board in the past.

The science of earthquake forecasting has so much negative “baggage” associated with it from past ages that many people have become extremely biased one way or another with regard to whether or not earthquakes can be predicted. And unless they see data that are presented in a clear an unambiguous manner that are easy to interpret then they will likely continue along the path of their established bias.

One of the main reasons this is such a problem is because there are no resources out there on the Internet at this time that enable earthquake researchers to display their earthquake forecasting data in such a manner that they are easy for people reviewing them to understand.

The problem is greatly amplified by the facts that quite often, the earthquake researchers don’t know how to present their data in a clear and understandable manner, and worse, they don’t even have any interest in learning how to do that.

One of my major projects that I have been gradually working on is developing some type of Internet resource that makes it possible, easy, and attractive for earthquake researchers to make their data available to Web site visitors. And unfortunately, I don’t presently know of anyone else on the planet who has the slightest interest in doing that type of work.

One would think that after people in Japan suffered some 20,000 fatalities and a $200 to $300 billion dollar or more economic loss in connection with that March 11, 2011 Japan area earthquake, the government of Japan would be going to absolutely extraordinary lengths to try to make it extremely easy for earthquake researchers around the world to help them with attempts to forecast future earthquakes in that area. But I myself have seen even the slightest bit of interest along those lines by the government of Japan or any other government for that matter.

The government of India seems to me to have about the best attitude along those lines. But even they are not moving along with anything approaching the necessary speed.

Forget the U.S. government. Its “deadsville.”

THIRD TOPIC – Would You Like To See Any Real Earthquake Forecasting Progress Made?

As the saying goes, “If you aren’t part of the Solution then you are part of the Problem.”

If you want to see any progress made, then “Why Not Try To Help?”

Canie is helping by keeping this bulletin board running with at least some protection from civil wars or flame wars.

I myself started the following effort. It is supposed to be a highly advanced bulletin board for displaying a variety of earthquake forecasting data and comments. But I have not had too much time free to work on it for a while.

http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/bbs.html

Also, my Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program that is getting a lot of work is being gradually expanded so that it can process and display a variety of earthquake, forecasting, sun and moon, ocean tide, and Solid Earth Tide data.

So, “What’s in your wallet?” to repeat an often heard commercial line. How are you helping? Are you a part of the Solution or a part of the Problem?

These are personal opinions.