Don, I wonder if you have been watching the BGS web site. There was
a Ml 1.8 recorded there yesterday within 80 km of your advisory on an earthquake
in Wales. If Roger Musson is right and the incidence of events of this
size in the area is about 1 per year, then your odds of getting this
within a 10-day window are about 1 in 36. (See Roger Musson's reply to your
prediction (#7857 and #7875). A search of our data base (which is
quite incomplete for this area) shows this rate is reasonable.
Since you did not put a time frame on your advisory, it is
impossible to evaluate it completely, however getting it correct
within 10 days does beat the odds.

BGS website:
http://www.gsrg.nmh.ac.uk/recbrit.html

Following is the BGS listing:

Year Mo Dy Hr Mn Secs Lat Lon kmE kmN Depth Mag Locality
2001 06 20 11 45 14.6 51.948 -3.089 325.1 228.4 28.8 1.8 TALGARTH,POWYS

Your advisory (reproduced here) identifies a site which is 68 km from
this located epicenter within 10 days and the listed earthquake falls
withing the stated magnitude range.

Great Britain
Posted by Don in Hollister on June 04, 2001 at 14:25:07:
Hi All. This is not an earthquakes forecast per say. Lets just say I'm
speculating about these. I know it will be a very lucky long shot to even
get one in the neighborhood.

52.5N 3.4W 06/09/01---0.9Ml-2.9Ml
52.5N 3.5W 06/08/01---0.9Ml-2.5Ml
52.5N 3.5W 06/09/01---0.9Ml-2.5Ml
52.5N 3.5W 06/10.01---0.9Ml-2.5Ml

The radius for all quakes will be 80K. The nearest named point is Trefeglwys
which is located in western Great Britain not to far from the coast.

And Roger Musson's estimate of occurrence rate:

Posted by Roger Musson on June 05, 2001 at 09:57:17:

Don's prediction names a tiny Welsh village, but then gives an error radius
of 80 km that takes in most of Wales. Well, I suppose that's playing by the
rules, it just looks odd.

Time window? Is it just for those days?

I can't guarantee that anything less than 2.0 would even be recorded, and
only the upper end of Don's magnitude range would be felt. The average
occurrence rate of magnitude 2+ events within the 80 km circle is probably
about 1 per year.