Forecasts Explained (once again) - September 24, 2012
Posted by EQF on September 23, 2012 at 23:03:03:

Penny,

This has been restated here countless times. But it appears that people seem to remember only what they want to remember.

EARTHQUAKE FORECAST LOCATIONS

It is not wise to be too specific regarding locations when an earthquake warning or advisory is circulated. If locations could be identified with 100% certainty then do that would be fine. But since most forecasts are presently likely just probability numbers some care has to be used with locations.

My forecast chart data represent probability numbers. Where there are line peaks on the charts it suggests that an earthquake might be about to occur there. And it is presently up to other forecasters, especially ones in the areas where there line peaks on the charts, to determine if there might be some seismic activity headed in their direction.

If you live in an area where earthquakes occur, making those determinations could quite literally mean the difference between life and death. Earthquakes don’t occur where I myself live. And I can’t force other people to try to learn how to evaluate those data.

If everything displays correctly, the first chart below is a recent forecasting chart. And it has line structures at various locations. Researchers in those areas would want to check their local data to see if there are any obvious signs of approaching seismic activity.

After that are two Year Charts for 2012 and 2011. The circles on all of the charts show where 6 and higher earthquakes occurred. So, researchers can look at those and other past Year Charts and try to determine what the likelihood would be that if an earthquake were about to occur in their area, there would be line peak structures on one of my forecast charts.

Some powerful earthquakes do have line peak structures that point to their approach. Others do not. And there are line peak structures at times and then no earthquake.

Pavel’s data are helping show why those line peak structures are on the charts at different times and at different locations. It appears that at times they are not directly associated with an earthquake that is going to immediately occur at the longitude where the line peak structure is located. Rather, something is taking place within the Earth’s crust that is causing the EM Signal responsible for the line peak structures to be generated.

These are personal opinions.


Follow Ups:
     ● fulfilled my prediction - John Vidale  23:58:11 - 9/23/2012  (80358)  (0)