Hi Pavel,

I send free advice regarding health and life threatening matters to governments around the world on a fairly regular basis. And that advice is used extensively. So, I have a fairly good idea regarding how and why things get done around the world. If the U.S. paid more attention to some of that advice I believe that we wouldn’t be having this global economic recession. And I have clearly and repeatedly said that to high level people associated with the U.S. government, particularly where energy matters are concerned. I had some lengthy discussions regarding energy matters with a high level U.S. Policy Maker earlier this month.

It is not necessary for you to explain those things about the EarthWaves board to me. I believe that my efforts had a significant part in getting this bulletin board started. Canie runs it. And I am glad that she is willing to put in the effort. But it probably would not have gotten started in the first place without my own efforts.

I do know exactly what is going on here. And it is unfortunate that the board has never been able to serve as a true forum for discussing matters related to earthquakes. But, that has to do with the politics of the situation.

As I stated before, the following is generally what is taking place:

The people around the world who should be doing this type of work don’t know how to discuss earthquake forecasting in public without causing problems. And they aren’t even interested in learning how to do that. Instead, they are simply saying to the general public, “If you won’t allow us to do what we want then we will simply tell you that ‘Earthquakes can’t be predicted.’” Then no progress will be made.

Because they get into so much trouble so often, their jobs can even be threatened. Governments threaten to cut off their research funds. They have decided that their job security is more important than seeing advances made in this science. So, nothing is getting done.

If they simply ignored the science and kept quiet then the people who are trying to make some progress could go about their business and the science would move forward. Unfortunately, the people who are so worried about their job security have gone on the offensive. And anyone who attempts to say that earthquakes can be predicted gets verbally attacked and even threatened.

It is a type of censorship by threat. And some of those threats can be quite serious.

Along earthquake forecasting lines, as far as I am concerned, as long as things remain relatively civil on this bulletin board, the EarthWaves board can be useful to make announcements and provide progress reports. A number of people do visit the board and read the reports.

Is any progress being made?

Yes. I am going to post another note some time this weekend saying that your own work and comments here been quite helpful and might have made an important earthquake forecasting breakthrough possible.

What is the U.S. doing?

This is just a guess. But, I suspect that the people who are in decision making positions here in the U.S. are waiting for me to tell them in which direction they should move regarding developing earthquake forecasting programs etc. And I simply have not yet had time to do that. One report that I am planning on sending them is about half finished and needs another 40 hours or so of work. It might not get finalized until after the November, 2012 Presidential Elections.

Those people probably would not be acting on my advice because they believe that I am that much of an expert in this field but rather because they have had so much success with other types of advice regarding a variety of topics that I have sent them in the past. The theory is, “Bet on a winner.”

The USGS will need to be involved in what I am going to propose. But they won’t have any choice on whether or not the work gets done. They will simply be told by higher level officials to do it “or else.”

What I am initially proposing needs to be done is quite different than what anyone would think. And high level officials have already been told that I am planning to send them that report, and what type of information it contains.

What else is being done?

Governments around the world have over the years probably been most interested in having their geology oriented scientists tell them how to predict earthquakes. And they keep providing them with funding year after year. But all they hear in return is:

“Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!” “Earthquakes can’t be predicted!”

So, they are getting tired of spending money and getting absolutely no results or even any level of interest. And as a consequence, at budget time the scientists are starting to lose their funding. I understand the USGS is scheduled to get at least a 10% budget cut in 2013. And there have been some loud complaints in public. But, what do those people expect?

No progress – Not Even An Offer Of Hope – No Funding

The irony here is that these people are so afraid for their jobs that they are actually willing to see their jobs gradually disappear rather than learn how to deal with the controversy surrounding this science and in the process, start making some progress.

At least the most threatening verbal attacks in this bulletin board have diminished in their danger during the past few years. Canie has done a fairly good job of keeping things under control.

These are personal opinions.