Re: M7.7
Posted by Pavel Kalenda on August 18, 2012 at 13:05:19:

Chris,

EQF put our prediction of Kamchatka EQ in a bit simple way to this earthwaves forum, but our prediction was correct from a scientific point of view:
We predicted area between Kurily islands, Kamchatka to Alaska, because it is for us the contact between N.America and Eurasian lithosphere plates. We predicted magnitudo M7+ and time window 28 days, but our prediction started on June 21. We prolonged our prediction on August 3 and we shortened the area to Kurily-Kamchatka.

I sent to EQF this mail on August 3:
P.S. The anomaly from July 4 continues and we estimated as a
possible area Kamchatka - Kurily and the possible magnitude M7+.

The development of the anomaly between August 6 and August 13 was similar to the development of anomaly before EQ at Kurily islands on November 24, 2008 (M7.3). This information was sent to the scientific EQ prediction group (not to the earthwaves forum).

I sent to EQF the info that we saw the stress anomaly 5 days before the Iran EQ, but we did not predict it.

Our basis of prediction is the indirectio measurement of the relative horizontal stress in the depths, which depends mainly on the tectonics forces. Read our book.