Earthquake Forecasting + The Galileo Syndrome + The Italy Earthquake Trial
Posted on October 8, 2011 by EQF

These are personal opinions.

EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING POLITICS

The conclusion that I arrived at a long time ago is that the science of earthquake forecasting and some other areas of science are being held back largely by government and international scientific politics rather than a lack of good forecasting methods etc.

As a consequence there are at least two major problems.

1. Scientists around the world who have the responsibility of forecasting earthquakes are so frightened by the thought that their government might get upset with them if they say anything about earthquake forecasting that they have gone into a virtual state of paralysis.

2. The main reason that governments get upset with the scientists in the first place is that the scientists have never learned or even attempted to learn how to discuss controversial topics such as earthquake forecasting in public in such a manner that the general public does not get upset with government officials.

This is not just a problem with earthquake forecasting but rather with many areas of science and medicine. For example, years ago I personally met with high level U.S. government tornado forecasting personnel and explained to them that certain types of EM Signals are being generated hours and even days before some highly destructive tornados occur.

It is unlikely that those EM Signals are actually pointing to the tornados themselves. That would seem to be physically impossible. Rather, they could be indicators that geomagnetic storm activity in certain locations is creating conditions that could encourage ordinary storm clouds to turn into tornado spawning clouds.

The tornado forecasting personnel actually said to me that this subject matter was too controversial for them to deal with. And nothing was ever done. As a consequence, a critically important and potentially invaluable tornado forecasting resource has never been developed.

It is another case of “politics over science.”

This politics problem is much more severe than most people are aware.

THE GALILEO SYNDROME

There is a widely recognized phenomenon that psychologists refer to as the “Stockholm Syndrome.”

Basically, in certain situations, people who have been kidnapped and are being held captive can “reprogram” their brains so that they actually come to believe that their captors are actually good people who are doing the right thing.

It is a little difficult to believe, but this can actually happen to major segments of the scientific and medical communities. They get put under pressure to behave in a certain way and incorporate that information into their thought patterns. So, in their minds, what should be pure, accurate science is now actually politics.

The scientists are reprogramming their brains so that they can get along and not be fired by their “captors,” in this case their employers.

People have been referring to this particular application of the Stockholm Syndrome that can affect scientists and others as the “Galileo Syndrome.” It has also been called the “Galileo Effect” and the “Ostrich Syndrome.” The scientist are burying their heads in the sand and pretending or in some cases actually convincing themselves that some problem does not exist.

For anyone new to science, Galileo stated that his observations indicated that the Earth was not the center of the universe. And all of the heavenly bodies did not revolve around the Earth.

Had he explained this to people in a diplomatic manner then there would likely not have been any problems. But he reportedly did it in such a way that he got the authorities at the time upset. And they forced him to change his statements and tell everyone that the Earth was in fact the center of the universe. He was branded as a type of heretic. Some or all of his writings were officially banned. And he was placed under a form of house arrest for the remainder of his life.

As a consequence, the term “Galileo Syndrome” has to a certain extent now been applied to situations where scientists are forced to tell people things that are politically correct but not scientifically accurate.

THE L’AQUILA, ITALY EARTHQUAKE TRIAL AND "THE CARROT AND THE STICK"

This earthquake forecasting politics problem or Galileo Syndrome or Ostrich Syndrome or whatever people want to call it is quite serious. And it is causing tremendous numbers of lives to be lost every year.

For most of our history, governments and the general public have used the “carrot” approach to encourage scientists and government officials to try to learn how to forecast earthquakes. However, that approach has been a virtual total failure in part because scientists affected by the Galileo Syndrome or whatever actually believe in their minds that “Earthquakes can’t be predicted.”

It is my personal opinion that after the 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy claimed more than 300 lives, people living that area decided that it was time they tried using the “stick” approach to getting scientists and government officials to start doing what they are being paid to do. And that trial involving about a half dozen scientists and officials is presently underway.

The merits of that specific trial are not something that I could comment on as an expert as they involve very specific legal matters. And the courts will have to decide what is right and wrong, legal and not legal there.

However, I do agree that government officials and scientists around the world are often not doing what they should be doing regardless of whether it is due to the Galileo Syndrome or some other problem. And that situation needs to be corrected.

FIGHTING POLITICS WITH POLITICS

Since these problems are largely a matter of politics rather than true science, it appears to me that they probably have to be dealt with in the political arena. And a certain amount of my earthquake forecasting efforts are now being devoted to changing the political landscape.

One of the approaches to solving the problem is to rely on the popular saying that “Sunlight is the best disinfectant.” In other words, if there is a problem, get it out into the open. Then after people are aware that it exists they can start to deal with it.

With regard to forecasting earthquakes, one of the steps for doing that is creating a Web site where earthquake researchers around the world can get together to discuss the science without be harassed by other scientists who are acting under the influence of the Galileo Syndrome. And I did create such a Web site. However, the owner of the nonprofit foundation that was supposed to take control of the Web site’s operation is apparently involved with some major life changes. And he is not going to be able to do any research along those lines.

So, that Web site is being reorganized under a different name. That will probably take another week or two. A new domain name has to be selected and registered.

Another step in this process of recognizing and dealing with these problems is to get the international psychology community to recognize that this particular science related manifestation of the Stockholm Syndrome is truly a major problem, then give it a formal name, and then begin publishing technical papers describing it.

Since many people are already using the names “Galileo Syndrome” or “Galileo Effect,” one of those names might be the final choice for a name. However, I expect that most people including myself would consider it unfortunate that one of greatest scientists in human history had his name attached to a psychology type of problem that involves the exact opposite of good science.