Re: Punchbowl Strain (along the san andreas)
Posted by Don in Hollister on June 10, 2001 at 15:55:33:

Hi Canie. This appears to be a data problem. It looks more impressive when you use the 30 day data in that the data is compressed. The 7 day data looks as if it has been adjusted to take a more normal track.

The one thing I learned from watching a documentary about the data is that the length of time the strain builds does not equate to the magnitude of a pending quake. It was thought that the longer the strain appeared to build the larger the quake. This was shown to be wrong in 1975 at the Libby Ranch south of Hollister.

In 1973 on Thanksgiving there was quake in the 5.0+ range. The strain build up time was about 2 days. In 1975 the strain build at the Libby Ranch was about 6 days, but that quake was in the 3.0+ range. No one has ever been able to explain the why the difference.

I would have to say there wouldn't be quakes of any significant size associated with the current data were seeing.

If the strain data were seeing is good then most likely the strain is on a parallel fault very close to the San Andreas. If that is the case then there could be a moderate to strong quake. Not sure what the time frame is for that area when the strain drops, but I don't think it would be much more then 48 hours from the time it dropped to the time of a quake.

When I see something like this I usually just lean back put my feet up and wait an see what happens. Take Care…Don in creepy town.