This is an update on outstanding predictions made to this board.
A separate post will deal with the prediction of events following the
Kermadec Islands Mw 7.2 on June 3, 2001.

Both of these are from Don in Creepy town. Both appear at this
time to be near-misses or correct in all parameters depending
on updates by the agencies determining these epicenters. Don
has not had a clear miss in more than a month. His predictions
have included events near Challis, ID, Mammoth Lakes (along with
Petra), Vancouver, Off the Coast of Northern California and
off the coast of Oregon in addition to those below. Also see
the posting on today's earthquake in northern France.

Vancouver Island:

Pacific Geosciences Center (PGC) has recomputed the parameters of
an event in the Vancouver Island region that occurred on June 2.
The new parameters are:
2001/06/02 21:04:29 50.5N 130.3W 10F 2.4 201 km W Pt. Hardy BC
See URL:
http://www.pgc.nrcan.gc.ca/seismo/recent/wc.50evt.list.html

This was the closest event to Don's prediction and also the largest
in the Vancouver Island region during the predicted period. While
the area is quite active at this time and the event occurs slightly
more than 50 km from the predicted epicenter with lower magnitude
than expected, the prediction should not be entirely discounted.

Epicenters in this region are tricky because the network traditionally
pulls epicenters toward it. Recomputed epicenters usually lie to the
northwest of the first computations by between 20 and 50 km. It is
quite possible that this event will finally be located within the
50 km radius Don had windowed. In that case, only the magnitude
would be incorrect.

This case points out the importance of not making hasty calls on
the quality of predictions.

Don's prediction had been:

Magnitude: 3.5-5.0
From: 05/28/2001 - To: 06/02/2001
Location: Vancouver Island
Lat: 50.9N - Long: 130.8W - Range: 50K

In Don's other outstanding prediction:

Off the Coast of Oregon:

Don's forecast for an event off the Coast of Oregon was:

Magnitude: 3.5-4.5
From: 2001/05/31PDT - To: 2001/06/06 PDT
Location: Off Coast of Oregon
Lat: 43.6N - Long: 128.8W - Range: 50K

See:

http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/CATALOG_SEARCH/cat.search.html

where the following event is now listed:

AR200106050051-12.65 43N2471 127W2625 10.00* 2.5 20/020 323399 0.28 1.5BD J1

The BD quality means this event is within 100 km of the actual
epicenter, which is probably located farther to the west than stated.

Compare this with the epicenter from May 17, 2001:
AR200105170901 6.15 44N1590 127W1036 10.00# 1.7 10/010 342400 0.38 4.8CD J1
This was eventually located by NEIS with Magnitude 3.1 at 43.7N 128.6W.
Similar errors are common in this catalogs.
My best guess on the NEIS location and magnitude of this event
would be Mb 3.5-4.0 (most likely Mb 3.9 error for this location is
usually about 1.4 units magnitude)
Location: 43.5N 128.8W (location is usually about 1.4 degrees further
west of PNSN preliminary location)

We will need to wait for the NEIS location and magnitude, but
I think we can safely say this was an excellent prediction especially
since it is the first event listed off the coast of Oregon in more than 2
weeks.