Hi Roger,

Being an alarmist can come in multiple forms. As most everyone here knows, I've spent my lifes work in the insurance business. When I taught my son to drive a car, the first thing I told him was that if every time he got behind the wheel he realized he had the ability to kill someone if he wasn't paying attention, then I doubted he would ever have a problem understanding how much of a responsibility driving was. It stayed with him as well as the horrid stories I told when I came home from work. But you see, a lot of parents would have thought that cruel and alarmist.

By saying that the potential exists for an earthquake at any given time in the San Francisco Bay area is not being alarmist, but a realist. The potential is always there, the problem is when. But the "when factor" must not be placed at 30 year margins, or complacency steps in and that's exactly what we have today.

30 years ago we were told we had 30 years, obviously we didn't. That's why freeways didn't get fixed and people died as a result. We don't have another 30 years now either, so the focus must be placed on the here and now, or no one will ever mentally prepare for that which needs preparation. Even if one never builds an earthquake kit, if they face the eventuality that an earthquake of some size will occur in the not to distant future, then they have already recognized the potential.

In this light I feel the potential for earthquake forecasting with daily weather reports and also weekly earthquake reports can bring a focus without alarming the public. Can you imagine the weatherman saying, "you know weathermen only have a 65% accuracy level, so let's see how earthquake forecasting works out." Its rather a competition between the weatherman and the earthquake forecaster as to who will have the greater percentage of correct forecasts. It could be interesting, educational and beneficial. I'd sure like to see it given a chance and find out how it works. I'd bet on the earthquake forecaster. Though he might have less practice, weathermen do horribly and never even look outside anymore.

Let's face it, putting a new spin on forecasting for earthquakes could be a more positive event than the average person might think. But, at least if they give the weekly earthquake report that's fact and it also keeps the topic of safety on top and right in focus.

Japan is a leader in preparation and everyone can afford to learn from them.

Petra